2.1. Validation Data
A summary of the method validation parameters, including linearity, LOQs, recoveries, and RSDs, is presented in
Table 1. Calibration curves exhibited excellent linearity for both target analytes, with correlation coefficients (
R2) exceeding 0.99 across the tested concentration ranges. The LOQs, calculated as ten times the standard deviation of replicate analyses of spiked blank matrix samples, were determined to be 1 mg/kg for 5-HMF and 3.5 μg/kg for PAT. The LOQ value of 1 mg/kg was well below the commonly applied quality criterion of 10 mg/kg for 5-HMF. For PAT, the LOQ of 3.5 μg/kg complied with the requirements set by Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2782, which recommends an LOQ not exceeding 0.5 times the ML (≤25 μg kg
−1) and preferably below 0.2 times the ML (≤10 μg/kg) [
17], thereby confirming the method’s high sensitivity.
Method accuracy was verified through recovery experiments at two fortification levels for each compound. The mean recoveries ranged from 97.50% to 101.32% for 5-HMF and from 82.54% to 89.71% for PAT, demonstrating satisfactory trueness across the tested levels. Precision, expressed as intra-day repeatability (
n = 6, RSDs), ranged between 5.60% and 6.45% for 5-HMF and between 7.62% and 9.27% for PAT. The recovery values and RSDs obtained for PAT fell within the specific performance criteria defined for confirmatory methods under Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2782, which stipulates an acceptable recovery range of 70–120% and a precision threshold of no more than 20% [
17].
2.2. Occurrence of 5-HMF in Reconstituted Pomegranate Juice
The concentrations of 5-HMF detected in reconstituted pomegranate juice samples are presented in
Table 2. In the 2024 production period, 5-HMF was quantified in all 105 reconstituted juice samples, with concentrations ranging from 1.16 to 10.79 mg/kg and an average level of 3.55 mg/kg. Among these, only two samples were found to exceed the 10 mg kg
−1 threshold. In contrast, among the 49 samples collected in 2025, 5-HMF was detected in 47 samples (95.9%) at concentrations between 1.03 and 4.36 mg/kg, with a mean value of 2.25 mg/kg.
The pH values of the pomegranate juice samples ranged from 2.79 to 3.99, reflecting an acidic environment that is known to facilitate the formation of 5-HMF. A statistically significant moderate negative correlation was observed between 5-HMF concentration and pH (Spearman’s
r = −0.424,
p < 0.01), indicating that lower pH levels may be associated with increased 5-HMF formation (
Figure 1). This finding aligns with previous research by Córdova et al., who reported increased 5-HMF concentrations at reduced pH during the storage of fruit-based products such as apple juice [
18]. Although the fruit matrix differs, the underlying chemical mechanism whereby acidic conditions accelerate the acid-catalyzed dehydration of hexoses remains consistent across different fruit systems. The acidic conditions, particularly at pH values below 4.0, are known to promote the acid-catalyzed dehydration of hexoses such as fructose and glucose, which are abundant in pomegranate juice. Under these conditions, 5-HMF is formed via pathways involving the loss of water molecules from sugar precursors. In addition, low pH may enhance the reactivity of Maillard reaction intermediates, further contributing to 5-HMF accumulation. Furthermore, a statistically significant moderate positive correlation was identified between 5-HMF concentrations and total acidity (
r = 0.416,
p < 0.01), suggesting that higher acid content may also play a contributory role in the enhancement of 5-HMF levels (
Figure 1). This relationship underscores the multifactorial influence of acidity, encompassing both free hydrogen ion concentration and the overall acidic composition of the juice matrix on 5-HMF formation. The relatively low 5-HMF levels detected in our samples, compared to the broader range (0.12 to 67.22 mg/kg) reported by Vatansever et al. [
19], might be explained by more controlled thermal processing conditions or differences in the initial sugar profiles of the concentrates used. Notably, the relatively wide range of pH and total acidity values observed among the samples may partly account for the variability in 5-HMF concentrations, especially in the 2024 production period, during which some samples exceeded the 10 mg/kg threshold.
The 5-HMF levels observed in the present study appear lower than those previously reported in commercial pomegranate juice samples. In a study conducted in Turkey by Vatansever et al., 5-HMF levels in commercially available pomegranate juice samples were found to range from 0.12 to 67.22 mg/kg [
19]. The relatively low 5-HMF levels detected in our samples, compared to the broader range (0.12 to 67.22 mg/kg) reported by Vatansever et al. [
19], might be explained by more controlled thermal processing conditions or differences in the initial sugar profiles of the concentrates used. Instead of a broad comparison with other fruit matrices, the 5-HMF levels in this study should be interpreted through the specific commercial production steps shown in
Figure 1. The ‘Heat treatment (85–95 °C)’ and ‘Pre-concentration’ stages are the primary thermal drivers for 5-HMF formation. The relatively low values observed (mean of 3.55 mg/kg in 2024 and 2.25 mg/kg in 2025) suggest that the thermal history during the concentration of these specific pomegranate juices was well-regulated, minimizing the acid-catalyzed dehydration of hexoses despite the low pH environment (2.79–3.99) and the final reconstitution to 15 °Brix. Similarly, in another study, 5-HMF concentrations in four pomegranate juice samples varied between 5.5 and 27.4 mg/kg, with two samples containing less than 10 mg/kg and the others exceeding this threshold. In comparison, 5-HMF concentrations detected in apple, orange, and grape juice samples ranged between 1.62–7.49 mg/kg, 0.35–0.58 mg/kg, and 0.34–24.38 mg/kg, respectively, indicating that pomegranate juice generally contained higher 5-HMF levels than other fruit juices [
20]. This difference may be attributed to the higher content of reducing sugars and amino acids in pomegranate juice, as well as the thermal processing conditions commonly applied during its production, which are known to promote 5-HMF formation via the Maillard reaction and sugar dehydration pathways.
The influence of thermal processing methods on 5-HMF formation in pomegranate juice has been widely reported in the literature and may help to explain the relatively low levels observed in the present study. For example, Sabanci et al. demonstrated that short-duration, high-voltage ohmic heating resulted in significantly lower 5-HMF levels compared to longer, low-voltage treatments [
21]. In addition, ohmic heating has been reported to generate less 5-HMF than conventional vacuum evaporation, with levels ranging from 2.70 to 5.40 mg/kg. These findings suggest that milder or more controlled processing conditions may contribute to limiting 5-HMF formation.
Similarly, extreme thermal treatments have been associated with substantial increases in 5-HMF concentration. Ersus et al. reported that prolonged heating of pomegranate juice at 200 °C led to an approximately 100-fold increase in 5-HMF levels [
15]. Although processing parameters were not directly assessed in the present study, the relatively low concentrations detected may reflect the use of controlled industrial processing conditions, as supported by previous findings.
The correlation between temperature and 5-HMF formation has been further demonstrated by Fischer et al., who reported a substantial increase in 5-HMF levels with rising heating temperatures [
14]. Specifically, when pomegranate juice was heated at 60 °C, the 5-HMF concentration was measured at 4.6 mg/kg, while heating at 70 °C, 80 °C, and 90 °C led to increases to 9.9 mg/kg, 11.4 mg/kg, and 12.5 mg/kg, respectively, indicating an increase in 5-HMF formation of up to 170% with rising temperatures.
The method of concentration also plays a critical role in 5-HMF formation. In a comparative study, Trishitman et al. observed that thermal evaporation led to a significant increase in 5-HMF levels during accelerated storage, from 16.76 mg/kg to 133.68 mg/kg [
16]. In contrast, only a moderate increase in 5-HMF content, from 3.64 mg/kg to 15.79 mg/kg, was observed following concentration by forward osmosis, a membrane-based technique. These findings highlight the potential of non-thermal membrane technologies to substantially mitigate 5-HMF formation during concentration processes.
The effect of phenolic compounds on 5-HMF formation has been demonstrated in a study by Türkyılmaz et al., in which the addition of phenolic acids such as ferulic, gallic, and caffeic acids to pomegranate juice significantly reduced 5-HMF levels by up to 60% [
4]. While phenolic content was not specifically measured in this study, the inherently high phenolic profile of pomegranate juice may have acted as a natural inhibitor, potentially contributing to the generally low HMF levels observed in our 2024 and 2025 samples. These results suggest that phenolic compounds not only contribute to the antioxidant capacity of the juice but also serve as inhibitors of undesirable Maillard reaction products like 5-HMF. Moreover, ferulic acid was reported to limit anthocyanin degradation induced by 5-HMF, thereby contributing to improved color stability during processing.
2.3. Occurrence of PAT in Reconstituted Pomegranate Juice
The occurrence and levels of PAT in reconstituted pomegranate juice samples (~15.0 °Brix) are summarized in
Table 3. PAT was detected in 57 out of 154 analyzed samples (37.0%) at concentrations ranging from 3.61 to 50.69 µg/kg (mean = 14.48 µg/kg), while the remaining 97 samples (73.0%) were free of detectable PAT. Only one sample (0.6%) exceeded the EU ML of 50 µg kg
−1 [
22]. Among the 105 samples collected in 2024, PAT was found in 18 samples (17.1%) at levels ranging from 3.61 to 24.09 µg/kg, with a mean level of 9.90 µg/kg. In contrast, among the 49 samples collected in 2025, PAT was detected in 39 samples (79.6%) within the range of 3.71–50.69 µg/kg, with a mean concentration of 16.59 µg/kg.
A significant increase in PAT incidence was observed in samples produced in 2025 compared to those from 2024, with detection frequencies rising from 17.1% to 79.6%, respectively. Although all pomegranate juice samples originated from the same harvest season, this marked difference may be attributed to differences in the postharvest storage period of the raw fruits prior to juice production. Specifically, the 2024 samples were produced between 4 October and 30 December 2024, while the 2025 samples were manufactured between 4 January and 11 March 2025. Given that pomegranate harvest in Turkey typically ends by late November or early December, it is likely that fruits used in the production of the 2025 samples had been stored for extended periods under postharvest conditions. This prolonged storage may have created favorable conditions for fungal proliferation and PAT biosynthesis, especially in the presence of mechanical damage or latent infections. It is possible that environmental parameters during storage, such as high humidity or fluctuating temperatures, could have promoted the growth of PAT-producing fungi, particularly Penicillium expansum, which are known to thrive under such conditions. Although these parameters were not directly monitored in this study, the extended storage duration likely increased the susceptibility of the fruit to fungal proliferation. Moreover, extended storage has been linked to physiological deterioration in fruit tissue, increasing susceptibility to microbial invasion. The substantial difference in contamination rates between the two production periods highlights the critical influence of storage duration and conditions on PAT occurrence in fruit-based products.
Beyond storage-related factors, the role of intrinsic juice parameters in PAT accumulation was also investigated. In particular, a very weak positive correlation was identified between PAT concentrations and pH values (r = 0.190,
p < 0.01) (
Figure 2). Although this correlation is statistically significant, the extremely low correlation coefficient clearly indicates that its biological and technological significance is highly limited. Given that 63% of the samples remained below the LOQ, this statistical association primarily reflects a marginal trend within the censored dataset. While previous observations in apple-based matrices have linked PAT accumulation to pH values approaching 4.0 [
23,
24], care must be taken not to overinterpret this relationship in the present study. The current data suggest that within the highly acidic environment of pomegranate juice (pH 2.79–3.99), pH exerts only a negligible, non-primary influence on PAT levels compared to overriding factors such as prolonged storage.
In contrast, the correlation between PAT concentrations and total acidity was found to be negative (
Figure 2) and negligible (
r = −0.020), with no statistical significance. This suggests that total acidity may exert only a limited or indirect influence on PAT dynamics within this matrix. The absence of a significant relationship, despite the weak association observed with pH, may reflect the fact that total acidity represents the total acid content rather than the active hydrogen ion concentration. As such, it may not directly impact fungal metabolic activity or PAT biosynthesis in the same manner as pH, especially in matrices characterized by high acidity, such as pomegranate juice. While a statistically significant correlation was observed (r = 0.190), its biological relevance appears limited given the weak nature of the association. This suggests that pH may only have a marginal, non-primary influence on PAT levels in this specific matrix.
Although the production and consumption of pomegranate juice have increased markedly in recent years, the potential risk associated with mycotoxin contamination in this product has remained underexplored, representing a significant gap in terms of consumer protection. Pomegranate is often considered inherently resistant to fungal spoilage due to its low pH, high phenolic content, and robust peel structure. However, the detection of PAT in a substantial proportion of samples indicates that these natural defenses may be compromised under certain conditions. PAT contamination is most commonly associated with physically damaged, decayed, or improperly stored fruits. The growth of
P. expansum, the primary PAT producer, is favored by conditions such as temperatures ranging from 0 to 25 °C, relative humidity around 90%, and water activity levels approaching 0.99 [
9]. These conditions can develop when fruits are stored for prolonged periods without adequate environmental controls.
Potential interaction between PAT and 5-HMF levels was also assessed to gain further insight into the influence of processing conditions. Although a negative correlation was observed between PAT and 5-HMF concentrations (r = −0.081), this relationship was both very weak and statistically non-significant (p > 0.05). The absence of a significant correlation suggests that variations in 5-HMF levels may not consistently influence PAT dynamics in pomegranate juice. While it has been hypothesized that high 5-HMF concentrations may reflect processing environments that suppress fungal viability and toxin biosynthesis, the weak and non-significant nature of the observed relationship implies that PAT and 5-HMF are not necessarily governed by shared physicochemical parameters in this matrix.
While most studies in Turkey and globally have focused on PAT contamination in apple juice due to its high susceptibility [
25,
26,
27], our findings demonstrate that pomegranate juice also requires close monitoring despite its perceived resistance to fungal growth. In apple-based matrices, PAT synthesis is known to be optimized around pH 4.0 and influenced by storage conditions [
9,
24], a trend that aligns with the weak but significant pH-related accumulation observed in our pomegranate samples. International studies, particularly from Iran, have reported mean PAT levels in pomegranate juice ranging from 4.2 to 8.3 µg/kg [
28,
29]. Our results, with an average of 14.48 µg/kg, indicate a higher occurrence level, suggesting that factors such as raw material quality, storage duration, and processing practices remain critical even for fruits with high acidity and phenolic content. These comparisons emphasize that pomegranate juice is not exempt from mycotoxin risks and necessitates established control mechanisms similar to those used for more susceptible fruits. These findings suggest that raw material quality, storage duration, and processing practices critically influence PAT levels, even in fruits with strong inherent resistance to microbial contamination.
2.4. Risk Assessment
The estimated exposure levels to 5-HMF and PAT through pomegranate juice consumption under two different scenarios are summarized in
Table 4. To account for uncertainty in samples with concentrations below the limit of quantification (LOQ), a substitution method was applied according to EFSA recommendations. Specifically, three scenarios were considered: the lower bound (LB) where non-detects were replaced with zero, the middle bound (MB) where they were replaced with LOQ/2, and the upper bound (UB) where they were replaced with the value of the LOQ.
It should be noted that, due to the absence of specific consumption data for pomegranate juice, fruit juice intake data were used as a surrogate for exposure calculations. This substitution may result in a degree of overestimation of actual 5-HMF and PAT intake, and thus the findings should be interpreted with appropriate caution.
The mean chronic daily intake values of 5-HMF for adults were estimated to range from 2.352 to 2.362 µg/kg bw/day (LB to UB) under Scenario 1, and from 0.374 to 0.376 µg/kg bw/day under Scenario 2. The corresponding 95th percentile (P95) exposure levels were calculated as 5.828 µg/kg bw/day in Scenario 1 and 0.927 µg/kg bw/day in Scenario 2. In comparison, children exhibited higher exposure levels across both scenarios. Mean intake values ranged from 8.510 to 8.546 µg/kg bw/day in Scenario 1 and from 1.139 to 1.144 µg/kg bw/day in Scenario 2, while P95 exposure levels were estimated at 21.08 µg/kg bw/day and 2.821 µg/kg bw/day, respectively. Notably, for both adults and children, exposure levels under Scenario 1 were approximately sixfold higher than those estimated under Scenario 2, reflecting the influence of varying consumption assumptions between the two dietary scenarios.
In the absence of an established reference dose (
RfD) or health-based guidance value for 5-HMF, risk characterization was approached through comparison with theoretical benchmarks available in the scientific literature. The Scientific Panel on Food Additives, Flavourings, Processing Aids and Materials in Contact with Food developed the theoretical maximum added daily intake (mTAMDI) framework, which provides per capita daily intake estimates in the absence of accurate toxicological thresholds. The mTAMDI value for 5-HMF is reported as 1.6 mg/person/day, with a threshold of concern set at 540 µg/person/day The
NEDI of 5-HMF calculated in this study did not exceed both the mTAMDI and threshold of concern values. Furthermore, the EFSA concluded, based on a benchmark dose lower confidence limit (BMDL) of 14.4 mg/kg bw/day derived from a 13-week rodent study, that 5-HMF does not pose a safety concern as a flavoring substance at its current levels of use in foods [
5]. In addition to these theoretical benchmarks, the detected 5-HMF levels were evaluated against the quality criteria established by the AIJN (European Fruit Juice Association) Code of Practice, which is the internationally recognized reference for fruit juice quality standards followed by the Turkish fruit juice industry and regulatory frameworks. According to the AIJN Reference Guideline for Pomegranate Juice, the maximum guidance limit for 5-HMF is set at 20 mg/L [
4]. In the present study, the average 5-HMF level was found to be 3.55 mg/kg (ranging from 1.16 to 10.79 mg/kg in 2024 and 1.03 to 4.36 mg/kg in 2025), which is substantially lower than this industrial quality threshold. This high level of compliance with both national and international standards further confirms that the 5-HMF concentrations in commercially available pomegranate juices in Turkey do not pose a significant health risk or quality concern, reflecting well-controlled thermal processing conditions.
The mean chronic daily intake of PAT for adults ranged from 0.004 to 0.006 µg/kg bw/day (LB–UB) under Scenario 1, and was 0.001 µg/kg bw/day (LB–UB) under Scenario 2, with corresponding P95 values of 0.018 and 0.003 µg/kg bw/day, respectively. In children, exposure levels were considerably higher: mean intakes ranged from 0.015 to 0.021 µg/kg bw/day under Scenario 1, and from 0.002 to 0.003 µg/kg bw/day under Scenario 2, with P95 values of 0.066 and 0.009 µg/kg bw/day, respectively. These values fell well below the PMTDI for PAT established by the JECFA, which is set at 0.4 µg/kg bw/day [
12]. Under the UB scenario, HQ values for adults were calculated as 0.014 (Scenario 1) and 0.002 (Scenario 2) for the mean, and 0.045 (Scenario 1) and 0.007 (Scenario 2) for the P95 exposure. For children, HQs were 0.051 (Scenario 1) and 0.007 (Scenario 2) for the mean, and 0.164 (Scenario 1) and 0.022 (Scenario 2) for the P95. All HQ values were well below the benchmark value of 1, indicating negligible health risk under both exposure scenarios.
Although data on PAT exposure from pomegranate juice consumption remain limited in the scientific literature, a study conducted in Iran evaluated PAT intake from various fruit juices and reported that pomegranate juice contributed less to PAT exposure than apple, orange, peach nectar, and pineapple juices, but more than sour cherry, mango, and grape juices [
28]. In that study, the estimated dietary intake of PAT from pomegranate juice was 0.0012 µg/kg bw/day, accounting for 0.38% of the PMTDI. This estimate is approximately 4.8-fold lower than the mean UB intake calculated under Scenario 1 in the present study. It should be noted, however, that in the absence of specific consumption data for pomegranate juice, the present study relied on generalized fruit juice consumption scenarios. Therefore, the observed differences may stem not only from regional consumption patterns, analytical methods, or processing variations, but also from differences in exposure assessment approaches.
In the broader context of PAT exposure, the majority of published studies have concentrated on apple juice, due to its well-documented susceptibility to patulin contamination. Intake levels of PAT from apple juice have shown considerable geographic variation, ranging from as low as 0.0003 µg/kg bw/day in France [
30] to 0.0164 µg/kg bw/day in Iran [
29]. In a previous study conducted by the author, PAT exposure among adults from apple juice consumption in Turkey was estimated to range between 0.000083 and 0.000091 µg/kg bw/day [
25]. These values were found to be approximately 50–63 times lower than the highest level reported in the present study under Scenario 1, and 8–10 times lower under Scenario 2. However, it is crucial to emphasize that these cross-study comparisons must be interpreted with strict caution. Because the present exposure estimates rely on general fruit juice consumption data rather than pomegranate-specific intake rates, direct comparisons likely overestimate the relative risk of pomegranate juice compared to matrices like apple juice, which have specific and established, often modest, consumption metrics [
31]. Therefore, the observed differences primarily highlight the methodological limitations of using surrogate consumption data rather than confirming an elevated risk profile for pomegranate juice. These findings emphasize the substantial geographic variation in PAT exposure from fruit juices, which appears to be closely linked not only to the quality of raw fruits used in juice production but also to local consumption patterns and dietary habits.