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Geosystemics View of Earthquakes
Open AccessLetter

Nucleation and Cascade Features of Earthquake Mainshock Statistically Explored from Foreshock Seismicity

1
Global Center for Asian and Regional Research, University of Shizuoka, 3-6-1, Takajo, Aoi-ku, Shizuoka 420-0839, Japan
2
Institute of Oceanic Research and Development, Tokai University, 3-20-1, Orido, Shimizu-ku, Shizuoka 424-0902, Japan
3
International Digital Earth Applied Science Research Center, Chubu Institute for Advanced Studies, Chubu University, 1200 Matsumoto-cho, Kasugai-shi, Aichi 487-8501, Japan
4
Japan Academy, 7-3-2, Ueno Koen, Taito-ku, Tokyo 110-0007, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Entropy 2019, 21(4), 421; https://doi.org/10.3390/e21040421
Received: 16 January 2019 / Revised: 10 April 2019 / Accepted: 11 April 2019 / Published: 19 April 2019
The relation between the size of an earthquake mainshock preparation zone and the magnitude of the forthcoming mainshock is different between nucleation and domino-like cascade models. The former model indicates that magnitude is predictable before an earthquake’s mainshock because the preparation zone is related to the rupture area. In contrast, the latter indicates that magnitude is substantially unpredictable because it is practically impossible to predict the size of final rupture, which likely consists of a sequence of smaller earthquakes. As this proposal is still controversial, we discuss both models statistically, comparing their spatial occurrence rates between foreshocks and aftershocks. Using earthquake catalogs from three regions, California, Japan, and Taiwan, we showed that the spatial occurrence rates of foreshocks and aftershocks displayed a similar behavior, although this feature did not vary between these regions. An interpretation of this result, which was based on statistical analyses, indicates that the nucleation model is dominant. View Full-Text
Keywords: earthquake prediction; foreshocks; seismicity earthquake prediction; foreshocks; seismicity
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kamogawa, M.; Nanjo, K.Z.; Izutsu, J.; Orihara, Y.; Nagao, T.; Uyeda, S. Nucleation and Cascade Features of Earthquake Mainshock Statistically Explored from Foreshock Seismicity. Entropy 2019, 21, 421. https://doi.org/10.3390/e21040421

AMA Style

Kamogawa M, Nanjo KZ, Izutsu J, Orihara Y, Nagao T, Uyeda S. Nucleation and Cascade Features of Earthquake Mainshock Statistically Explored from Foreshock Seismicity. Entropy. 2019; 21(4):421. https://doi.org/10.3390/e21040421

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kamogawa, Masashi; Nanjo, Kazuyoshi Z.; Izutsu, Jun; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Nagao, Toshiyasu; Uyeda, Seiya. 2019. "Nucleation and Cascade Features of Earthquake Mainshock Statistically Explored from Foreshock Seismicity" Entropy 21, no. 4: 421. https://doi.org/10.3390/e21040421

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