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Nucleation and Cascade Features of Earthquake Mainshock Statistically Explored from Foreshock Seismicity

Global Center for Asian and Regional Research, University of Shizuoka, 3-6-1, Takajo, Aoi-ku, Shizuoka 420-0839, Japan
Institute of Oceanic Research and Development, Tokai University, 3-20-1, Orido, Shimizu-ku, Shizuoka 424-0902, Japan
International Digital Earth Applied Science Research Center, Chubu Institute for Advanced Studies, Chubu University, 1200 Matsumoto-cho, Kasugai-shi, Aichi 487-8501, Japan
Japan Academy, 7-3-2, Ueno Koen, Taito-ku, Tokyo 110-0007, Japan
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Entropy 2019, 21(4), 421;
Received: 16 January 2019 / Revised: 10 April 2019 / Accepted: 11 April 2019 / Published: 19 April 2019
PDF [3052 KB, uploaded 19 April 2019]


The relation between the size of an earthquake mainshock preparation zone and the magnitude of the forthcoming mainshock is different between nucleation and domino-like cascade models. The former model indicates that magnitude is predictable before an earthquake’s mainshock because the preparation zone is related to the rupture area. In contrast, the latter indicates that magnitude is substantially unpredictable because it is practically impossible to predict the size of final rupture, which likely consists of a sequence of smaller earthquakes. As this proposal is still controversial, we discuss both models statistically, comparing their spatial occurrence rates between foreshocks and aftershocks. Using earthquake catalogs from three regions, California, Japan, and Taiwan, we showed that the spatial occurrence rates of foreshocks and aftershocks displayed a similar behavior, although this feature did not vary between these regions. An interpretation of this result, which was based on statistical analyses, indicates that the nucleation model is dominant. View Full-Text
Keywords: earthquake prediction; foreshocks; seismicity earthquake prediction; foreshocks; seismicity

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Kamogawa, M.; Nanjo, K.Z.; Izutsu, J.; Orihara, Y.; Nagao, T.; Uyeda, S. Nucleation and Cascade Features of Earthquake Mainshock Statistically Explored from Foreshock Seismicity. Entropy 2019, 21, 421.

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