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Article

Analysis of Solar Irradiation Time Series Complexity and Predictability by Combining Kolmogorov Measures and Hamming Distance for La Reunion (France)

1
Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 8, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
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Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of La Réunion, Laboratoire d’Energétique, d’Electronique et Procédés, 15 Avenue René Cassin, Sainte-Clotilde, 97715 La Réunion, France
3
Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture (DICA), University of Trieste, via Valerio 6/1, 34100 Trieste, Italy
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ACIMSI—Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modeling, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 7, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
5
Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, University of Sarajevo, Zmaj from Bosnia 33–35, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Entropy 2018, 20(8), 570; https://doi.org/10.3390/e20080570
Received: 30 June 2018 / Revised: 28 July 2018 / Accepted: 30 July 2018 / Published: 1 August 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applications of Information Theory in the Geosciences II)
Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural variability of solar irradiation is being complicated by atmospheric conditions (in particular cloudiness) and orography, which introduce additional complexity into the phenomenological records. To address this question for daily solar irradiation data recorded during the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 at 11 stations measuring solar irradiance on La Reunion French tropical Indian Ocean Island, we use a set of novel quantitative tools: Kolmogorov complexity (KC) with its derivative associated measures and Hamming distance (HAM) and their combination to assess complexity and corresponding predictability. We find that all half-day (from sunrise to sunset) solar irradiation series exhibit high complexity. However, all of them can be classified into three groups strongly influenced by trade winds that circulate in a “flow around” regime: the windward side (trade winds slow down), the leeward side (diurnal thermally-induced circulations dominate) and the coast parallel to trade winds (winds are accelerated due to Venturi effect). We introduce Kolmogorov time (KT) that quantifies the time span beyond which randomness significantly influences predictability. View Full-Text
Keywords: solar irradiation at La Reunion; Hamming distance; Kolmogorov measures; solar power; Kolmogorov time; solar irradiation predictability solar irradiation at La Reunion; Hamming distance; Kolmogorov measures; solar power; Kolmogorov time; solar irradiation predictability
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MDPI and ACS Style

Mihailović, D.T.; Bessafi, M.; Marković, S.; Arsenić, I.; Malinović-Milićević, S.; Jeanty, P.; Delsaut, M.; Chabriat, J.-P.; Drešković, N.; Mihailović, A. Analysis of Solar Irradiation Time Series Complexity and Predictability by Combining Kolmogorov Measures and Hamming Distance for La Reunion (France). Entropy 2018, 20, 570. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20080570

AMA Style

Mihailović DT, Bessafi M, Marković S, Arsenić I, Malinović-Milićević S, Jeanty P, Delsaut M, Chabriat J-P, Drešković N, Mihailović A. Analysis of Solar Irradiation Time Series Complexity and Predictability by Combining Kolmogorov Measures and Hamming Distance for La Reunion (France). Entropy. 2018; 20(8):570. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20080570

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mihailović, Dragutin T.; Bessafi, Miloud; Marković, Sara; Arsenić, Ilija; Malinović-Milićević, Slavica; Jeanty, Patrick; Delsaut, Mathieu; Chabriat, Jean-Pierre; Drešković, Nusret; Mihailović, Anja. 2018. "Analysis of Solar Irradiation Time Series Complexity and Predictability by Combining Kolmogorov Measures and Hamming Distance for La Reunion (France)" Entropy 20, no. 8: 570. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20080570

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