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Correction published on 14 December 2018, see Entropy 2018, 20(12), 972.

Open AccessArticle
Entropy 2018, 20(3), 178; https://doi.org/10.3390/e20030178

Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model

1
School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 28 November 2017 / Revised: 22 February 2018 / Accepted: 24 February 2018 / Published: 8 March 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods)
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Abstract

Flight crew performance is of great significance in keeping flights safe and sound. When evaluating the crew performance, quantitative detailed behavior information may not be available. The present paper introduces the Bayesian Network to perform flight crew performance evaluation, which permits the utilization of multidisciplinary sources of objective and subjective information, despite sparse behavioral data. In this paper, the causal factors are selected based on the analysis of 484 aviation accidents caused by human factors. Then, a network termed Flight Crew Performance Model is constructed. The Delphi technique helps to gather subjective data as a supplement to objective data from accident reports. The conditional probabilities are elicited by the leaky noisy MAX model. Two ways of inference for the BN—probability prediction and probabilistic diagnosis are used and some interesting conclusions are drawn, which could provide data support to make interventions for human error management in aviation safety. View Full-Text
Keywords: flight crew; Bayesian Network; Delphi technique; leaky noisy MAX model flight crew; Bayesian Network; Delphi technique; leaky noisy MAX model
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Chen, W.; Huang, S. Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model. Entropy 2018, 20, 178.

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