Search Results (22)

User churn in online games refers to players becoming inactive for an extended period. Even a small increase in churn can lead to significant revenue loss, making churn prediction crucial for sustaining long-term player engagement. Although user churn prediction has been extensively studied, most existing approaches either ignore non-login periods or treat all inactivity uniformly, overlooking key behavioral differences. This study addresses this gap by categorizing non-login periods into three types, as follows: inactivity due to new or dormant users, genuine loss of interest, and temporary inaccessibility caused by external factors. These periods are treated as either non-existent or missing data and imputed using techniques such as mean or mode substitution, linear interpolation, and multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE). MICE was selected due to its ability to impute missing values more robustly by considering multivariate relationships. A random forest (RF) classifier, chosen for its interpretability and robustness to incomplete data, serves as the primary prediction model. Additionally, classifier chains are used to capture label dependencies, and principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to reduce dimensionality and mitigate overfitting. Experiments on real-world MMORPG data show that our approach improves predictive accuracy, achieving a micro-averaged AUC of above 0.92 and a weighted F1 score exceeding 0.70. These findings suggest that our approach improves churn prediction and offers actionable insights for supporting personalized player retention strategies. Full article

Software as a service (SaaS) is a major service model for delivering software to end users through the cloud. SaaS platforms provide their users with cost-efficient, flexible and scalable services that can be available on demand, anytime, and anywhere. Moreover, SaaS empowers software providers to establish recurring revenue and create profitable businesses. However, SaaS can endure high customer turnover due to reasons such as serving a wide range of customers, intense competition and rapid evolution of technology. Maintaining a regular customer base and keeping users engaged is crucial for the survival of a SaaS business. Thus, it is crucial for SaaS providers to identify both the reasons behind users’ engagement and churn of their app towards taking proper actions to retain them in the long term. SaaS data regarding user behavior, subscriptions and system performance can be utilized for deriving insights and identifying patterns to support decision-making for SaaS providers. To this end, the aim of this survey is to review research in data-driven decision support systems in SaaS, identifying current gaps and challenges and highlighting directions for future improvements towards the development of more efficient and intelligent systems. Full article

Subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) platforms face high churn rates and substantial revenue losses from SVOD content piracy, all of which limit their ability to invest in acquiring/creating content compelling enough to win and retain subscribers. Based on social exchange theory, this study argues that platforms can improve relationships with SVOD content users by offering tiered discounts in exchange for advertising/loyalty and by promoting anti-piracy messages with a prosocial (threatening) approach that emphasizes harm to filmmakers (punishment for pirates). We hypothesize that these incentives enhance subscription intention when the incentive specifications (advertising levels, loyalty levels, message approach, and message credibility) match the public’s heterogeneous dispositions (advertising attitude, loyalty attitude, justice sensitivity, and fear of punishment). In a survey on the intention to subscribe to a hypothetical new platform, we confirmed the hypothesized interactions for advertising-based discounts, loyalty-based discounts, and prosocial messages, but did not find support for threatening messages. Further exploration showed that the evaluation of platform content was much more influential than any other incentive and that tiered loyalty discounts had a remarkable capacity to enhance subscription intention. This study’s findings may help shape incentives that are more satisfying to users and ultimately more profitable for platforms. Full article

Customer retention is a key priority for mobile telecommunications companies, as acquiring new customers is significantly more costly than retaining existing ones. A major challenge in this field is predicting customer churn—users discontinuing services. Traditional predictive models such as rule-based systems often struggle with the complex, non-linear nature of customer behavior. To address this, we propose the use of deep learning techniques, specifically multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) networks, to improve the accuracy of churn predictions. However, while neural networks excel in predictive performance, they are often criticized for being “black-box” models, lacking interpretability. A real-world data set is considered, which originally contained information about 15,000 randomly selected clients. Various network structures and configurations are analyzed. The obtained results are compared with results generated using fuzzy rule-based and rough-set rule-based systems. The MLP model achieved an almost perfect accuracy of $0.999$ with an F-measure of $0.989$, outperforming traditional methods such as fuzzy rule-based and rough-set systems. Although the RBF model slightly lagged in accuracy, it demonstrated a superior recall of $0.993$, indicating better identification of potential churners. These results demonstrate that neural network models significantly enhance predictive performance in churn modeling. The interpretability of the model is also discussed since it bears significance in real applications. Our contribution lies in showing that deep learning methods significantly enhance churn prediction accuracy, though the challenge of model interpretability remains a critical area for future work. Full article

With the popularity of Play-to-Earn (P2E) games, in-game token economies have become the foundation of the financial structure of virtual worlds. More and more players are investing in digital assets, promoting long-term economic growth. This paper delves into the key factors for the sustainability of the P2E game token economy: the investment value of tokens and external incentives. When tokens are no longer profitable, user churn rates rise sharply, which is critical to the continued development of P2E games. External factors also significantly impact token prices, which affects the stability and sustainability of the entire economic system. In response to these challenges, this paper proposes a series of strategies to enhance token stability, including adjustments to game design, improvements to player incentive mechanisms, and the formulation of relevant policies and regulations. The conclusions of this study aim to provide valuable insights and guidance to game designers, investors, and players to promote the healthy development of Web3 game token economic systems. Full article

To achieve user retention through multifactor synergy, Internet enterprises must reduce costs and increase efficiency and sustainable development. In response to the dilemma that Internet companies are experiencing increasingly high user acquisition costs and serious user churn, this paper investigates a sample of 46,695 user reviews of nine product series from Xiaomi Ecological Chain. Case studies and qualitative comparative analysis are used to explore the influence mechanisms of quality of experience, brand trust, and brand attachment on users’ retention intentions. Our findings are as follows. (1) Brand attachment alone is not necessary for high user retention intention, but user perception, cognition, and brand trust are necessary. (2) Quality of experience positively impacts brand trust, attachment, and user retention intention. Therefore, improving user perception and cognition is critical in generating high user retention intention. (3) Five configuration paths can achieve high user retention intention, while three configuration paths lead to low user retention intention, and there is an asymmetric relationship between these paths. Among them, the role of quality of experience-driven configuration paths in generating user retention intention is the most prominent. (4) User perception and cognition can substitute with brand trust and attachment in the substitution relationship between configuration paths. Our findings have important theoretical and practical implications for revealing the realization paths of high user retention intention in Internet companies and provide a new perspective for future research. Full article

Electronic sports show significant user churn caused by a toxic gaming atmosphere, and current GUI-based interventions are insufficient to address the issue. Based on the theoretical framework of Perceiving and Experiencing Fictional Characters, a new hybrid interaction interface and paradigm combined with tangibles is proposed to counter negative mood. To support the frustrated users of Massive Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games, we added AI teammates for better personal performance and social robots for the disclosure of negative mood. We hypothesized that AI teammates’ invisibility and anonymity would mitigate negative emotions; an effect amplified by the presence of social robots. A comparative experiment was conducted with 111 participants. Social robots for emotion-oriented coping improved user mood but AI teammates for problem-oriented coping did so better, although their higher levels of experienced anonymity may not have been preferred. Unexpectedly, conversing with a robot after playing with an AI teammate brought the mood back to that experienced when talking to a robot alone, while increasing the distancing tendencies. With this in mind, AI and social robots can counter the negative atmosphere in MOBA games, positively contributing to game design and empathic human–computer interaction. Full article

In the process of user churn modeling, due to the imbalance between lost users and retained users, the use of traditional classification models often cannot accurately and comprehensively identify users with churn tendency. To address this issue, it is not sufficient to simply increase the misclassification cost of minority class samples in cost-sensitive methods. This paper proposes using the Focal Loss hard example mining technique to add the class weight α and the focus parameter γ to the cross-entropy loss function of LightGBM. In addition, it emphasizes the identification of customers at risk of churning and raises the cost of misclassification for minority and difficult-to-classify samples. On the basis of the preceding ideas, the FocalLoss_LightGBM model is proposed, along with random forests, SVM, XGBoost, and LightGBM. Empirical analysis based on a dataset of credit card users publicly available on the Kaggle website. The AUC, TPR, and G-mean index values were superior to the existing model, which can effectively improve the accuracy and stability of potential lost users. Full article

Multi-project parallelism is an important feature of open source communities (OSCs), and multi-project collaboration among users is a favorable condition for an OSC’s development. This paper studies the robustness of this type of community. Based on the characteristics of knowledge collaboration behavior and the large amount of semantic content generated from user collaboration in open source projects, we construct a directed, weighted, semantic-based multi-project knowledge collaboration network. Using analysis of the KCN’s structure and user attributes, nodes are divided into knowledge collaboration nodes and knowledge dissemination nodes that participate in either multi- or single-project collaboration. From the perspectives of user churn and behavior degradation, two types of failure modes are constructed: node failure and edge failure. Based on empirical data from the Local Motors open source vehicle design community, we then carry out a dynamic robustness analysis experiment. Our results show that the robustness of our constructed network varies for different failure modes and different node types: the network has (1) a high robustness to random failure and a low robustness to deliberate failure, (2) a high robustness to edge failure and a low robustness to node failure, and (3) a high robustness to the failure of single-project nodes (or their edges) and a low robustness to the failure of multi-project nodes (or their edges). These findings can be used to provide a more comprehensive and targeted management reference, promoting the efficient development of OSCs. Full article

In recent years, churn rates in industries such as finance have increased, and the cost of acquiring new users is more than five times the cost of retaining existing users. To improve the intelligent prediction accuracy of customer churn rate, artificial intelligence is gradually used. In this paper, the bidirectional long short-term memory convolutional neural network (BiLSTM-CNN) model is integrated with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in parallel, which well solves the defective problem that RNNs and CNNs run separately, and it also solves the problem that the output results of a long short-term memory network (LSTM) layer in a densely-connected LSTM-CNN (DLCNN) model will ignore some local information when input to the convolutional layer. In order to explore whether the attention bidirectional long short-term memory convolutional neural network (AttnBLSTM-CNN) model can perform better than BiLSTM-CNN, this paper uses bank data to compare the two models. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the AttnBiLSTM-CNN model is improved by 0.2%, the churn rate is improved by 1.3%, the F1 value is improved by 0.0102, and the AUC value is improved by 0.0103 compared with the BLSTM model. Therefore, introducing the attention mechanism into the BiLSTM-CNN model can further improve the performance of the model. The improvement of the accuracy of the user churn prediction model can warn of the possibility of user churn in advance and take effective measures in advance to prevent user churn and improve the core competitiveness of financial institutions. Full article

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many countries imposed restrictions and quarantines on the population, which led to a decrease in people’s physical activity (PA) and severely damaged their mental health. As a result, people engaged in fitness activities with the help of fitness apps, which improved their resistance to the virus and reduced the occurrence of psychological problems, such as anxiety and depression. However, the churn rate of fitness apps is high. As such, our purpose in this study was to analyze the factors that influence the use of fitness apps by adults aged 18–65 years in the context of COVID-19, with the aim of contributing to the analysis of mobile fitness user behavior and related product design practices. We constructed a decision target program model using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and we analyzed and inductively screened 11 evaluation indicators, which we combined with an indicator design questionnaire. We distributed 420 questionnaires; of the respondents, 347 knew about or used fitness apps. Among these 347, we recovered 310 valid questionnaires after removing invalid questionnaires with a short completion time, for an effective questionnaire recovery rate of 89.33%. We used the AHP and entropy method to calculate and evaluate the weight coefficient of each influencing factor and to determine an influencing factor index. Our conclusions were as follows: first, the effect of perceived usefulness on the use of fitness apps by the study groups was the most notable. Second, personal motivation and perceived ease of use considerably influenced the adult group’s willingness to use fitness apps. Finally, the perceived cost had relatively little effect on the use of fitness apps by adults, and the study group was much more concerned with the privacy cost than the expense cost. Full article

The digital world is very dynamic. The ability to timely identify possible vendor migration trends or customer loss risks is very important in cloud-based services. This work describes a churn risk prediction system and how it can be applied to guide cloud service providers for recommending adjustments in the service subscription level, both to promote rational resource consumption and to avoid CSP customer loss. A training dataset was built from real data about the customer, the subscribed service and its usage history, and it was used in a supervised machine-learning approach for prediction. Classification models were built and evaluated based on multilayer neural networks, AdaBoost and random forest algorithms. From the experiments with our dataset, the best results for a churn prediction were obtained with a random forest-based model, with 64 estimators, having 0.988 accuracy and 0.997 AUC value. Full article

Free-to-play mobile games monetize players through different business models, with higher player engagement leading to revenue increases. Consequently, the foremost goal of game designers and developers is to keep their audience engaged with the game for as long as possible. Studying and modeling player churn is, therefore, of the highest importance for game providers in this genre. This paper presents machine learning-based models for predicting player churn in a free-to-play mobile game. The dataset on which the research is based is collected in cooperation with a European game developer and comprises over four years of player records of a game belonging to the multiple-choice storytelling genre. Our initial analysis shows that user churn is a very significant problem, with a large portion of the players engaging with the game only briefly, thus presenting a potentially huge revenue loss. Presented models for churn prediction are trained based on varying learning periods (1–7 days) to encompass both very short-term players and longer-term players. Further, the predicted churn periods vary from 1–7 days. Obtained results show accuracies varying from 66% to 95%, depending on the considered periods. Full article

In the airline industry, customer satisfaction occurs when passengers’ expectations are met through the airline experience. Considering that airline service quality is the main factor in obtaining new and retaining existing customers, airline companies are applying various approaches to improve the quality of the physical and social servicescapes. It is common to use data analysis techniques for analyzing customer propensity in marketing. However, their application to the airline industry has traditionally focused solely on surveys; hence, there is a lack of attention paid to deep learning techniques based on survey results. This study has two purposes. The first purpose is to find the relationship between various factors influencing customer churn risk and satisfaction by analyzing the airline customer data. For this, we applied deep learning techniques to the survey data collected from the users who have used mostly Korean airplanes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the one of the few attempts at applying deep learning to analyze airline customer propensities. The second purpose is to analyze the influence of the social servicescape, including the viewpoints of the cabin crew and passengers using aircraft, on airline customer propensities. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method of considering human services increased the accuracy of predictive models by up to 10% and 9% in predicting customer churn risk and satisfaction, respectively. Full article

Modern users are accustomed to always-accessible networks ready to serve all of their communication, entertainment, information, and other needs, at the touch of their devices. Spoiled with choices provided on the competitive markets, the risk of customer churn makes network and service providers sensitive to user Quality of Experience (QoE). Services that enable people to work and industries to function in these pandemic times, such as the telemeeting service, are becoming ever more critical, not just for the end-users but also for the providers. Nevertheless, the heterogeneity of end-users network environments and the uniqueness of the service (bidirectional video and audio transmissions and interactivity between the meeting peers) imposes specific QoE requirements. Hence, this paper focuses on understanding how different service quality degradations affect user perception and frustration with such impaired service. The impact of eight quality degradations was analyzed. Based on the conducted user study, we used the multiple regression analysis and developed three models capable of predicting user Level of Frustration (LoF) for the specific degradations that we have analyzed. The models work with the User Frustration Susceptibility Index (UFSI), which categorizes users into groups based on their tendency to become frustrated with the impaired service. Full article