Search Results (210)

Accurate demand forecasting and adaptive load balancing are critical for maintaining stability and efficiency in modern smart power grids. This study proposes a hybrid deep learning (DL) framework, termed Transformer-Generative Adversarial Network-Gated Recurrent Unit (Transformer-GAN-GRU), which integrates global attention-based temporal modeling, generative data augmentation, and sequential refinement into a unified architecture. The proposed framework captures both long- and short-term dependencies while improving representation of imbalanced demand patterns. The model is evaluated on three heterogeneous benchmark datasets, namely Pecan Street, the reliability test system-grid modernization laboratory consortium (RTS-GMLC), and the reference energy disaggregation dataset (REDD). Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a maximum accuracy (Acc) of 99.49%, a recall of 99.67%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 99.83%. In addition to high predictive performance, the framework exhibits strong stability, fast convergence, and low inference latency, confirming its suitability for real-time deployment in smart grid environments. Full article

Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) represents a powerful approach for energy disaggregation, which enables detailed insights into energy consumption patterns without requiring extensive sensor deployment. While significant advances have been achieved in residential NILM applications, commercial and industrial buildings remain largely underexplored despite their substantial contribution to global energy consumption. This study addresses this gap by developing and evaluating multiple artificial intelligence approaches for energy disaggregation across residential, commercial, and industrial buildings under a unified experimental protocol. We implement and compare several AI-based models, including Vision Transformer (ViT), Variational Autoencoder (VAE), Random Forest (RF), and custom architectures inspired by TimeGPT and Prophet, alongside traditional baseline methods. The proposed framework is validated using three benchmark datasets representing residential (AMPds), commercial (COmBED), and industrial (IMDELD) environments. Experimental results demonstrate that architecture–load interactions, rather than model complexity alone, are the primary determinants of disaggregation accuracy: the ViT-small configuration achieves superior performance for complex industrial loads with R² values exceeding 0.94, Random Forest proves most effective for finite-state commercial HVAC systems with R² up to 0.97, and the Prophet-inspired model excels in capturing seasonal patterns in residential appliances. These findings provide evidence-based guidelines for selecting appropriate AI models based on load characteristics, signal-to-noise ratio, and building type, contributing to the practical deployment of NILM in heterogeneous building environments. Full article

Addressing the challenge of coordinated dispatch between wind/solar and thermal power in new energy grids, this research proposes a thermal power unit output prediction method based on a Transformer-BiLSTM hybrid deep learning model. First, a simulated annealing algorithm optimizes the output configuration of solar thermal power plants to mitigate fluctuations in wind and solar combined generation. An ant colony-greedy algorithm is then integrated to determine the optimal dispatch data for thermal power units, constructing a high-quality training dataset under physical constraints. In the model design, a bidirectional long short-term memory network captures short-term temporal features, while the Transformer’s multi-head self-attention mechanism models long-term dependencies. The model innovatively incorporates the learnable positional encoding to enhance temporal awareness. Experimental results demonstrate accurate predictions, with the power constraint mechanism effectively correcting over-limit forecasts. This ensures 98.7% of predictions during low-load periods comply with unit technical specifications. Compared to existing methods, this model avoids data limitations and manual feature engineering bottlenecks through the end-to-end wind–solar–thermal mapping, providing a high-precision solution for dispatch decisions in renewable-dominated grids. Full article

Load forecasting for Integrated Energy Systems (IESs) is critical to enabling multi-energy coordinated optimization and low-carbon scheduling. Facing multi-load types and multi-site high-dimensional heterogeneous data, there remains a global learning challenge stemming from insufficient representation of spatiotemporal coupling features. In response to the multi-source heterogeneous characteristics of IES loads, this paper designs a Spatiotemporal Topology Encoder that maps load data into a tensorized multi-energy spatiotemporal topological representation via fuzzy classification and multi-scale ranking. In parallel, we construct a MultiScale Hybrid Convolver to extract multi-scale, multi-level global spatiotemporal features of multi-energy load representations. We further develop a Temporal Segmentation Transformer and a Steady-State Exponentially Gated Memory Unit, and design a jointly optimized forecasting model that enforces global dynamic correlations and local, steady-state preservation. Altogether, we propose a multi-scale spatiotemporal fusion and steady-state memory-driven load forecasting method for integrated energy systems (MSTF-SMDN). Extensive experiments on a public real-world dataset from Arizona State University demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach: compared to the strongest baseline, MSTF-SMDN reduces cooling load RMSE by 16.09%, heating load RMSE by 12.97%, and electric load RMSE by 6.14%, while achieving R² values of 0.99435, 0.98701, and 0.96722, respectively, confirming its feasibility, efficiency, and promising potential for multi-energy load forecasting in IES. Full article

Power load forecasting is a core technical component for achieving safe, stable, and economic operation in smart grids. This paper proposes a hybrid BiLSTM–Transformer forecasting method based on a Dynamic Adaptive Fusion (DAF) module. The core of this method involves utilizing the DAF module to adaptively weight different feature channels to highlight key influencing factors, while simultaneously employing a temporal attention mechanism to capture the contributions of various time steps. Building on this, the model effectively combines the strengths of BiLSTM networks in capturing bidirectional dependencies with the capability of Transformer models to extract global contextual features, thereby achieving a multi-level dynamic fusion of load characteristics. Experiments on real-world grid datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a significant performance improvement over traditional models, particularly in terms of load peak prediction accuracy and stability. This provides effective technical support for the refined scheduling of power systems. Full article

Energy management systems operating under dynamic electricity pricing require fast and cost-optimal control strategies for flexible loads. Mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) can compute theoretically optimal control trajectories but is computationally expensive and typically relies on accurate load forecasts, limiting its practical real-time applicability. This paper proposes a supervised imitation learning (IL) framework that learns optimal setpoint trajectories for a conventional proportional (P) controller directly from electricity price signals and temporal features, thereby eliminating the need for explicit load forecasting. The learned model predicts setpoint trajectories in an open-loop manner, while a lower-level P controller ensures stable closed-loop operation within a two-stage control architecture. The approach is validated in an industrial case study involving load shifting of a refrigeration system under dynamic electricity pricing and benchmarked against MILP optimization, reinforcement learning (RL), heuristic strategies, and various machine learning models. The MILP solution achieves a cost reduction of 21.07% and represents a theoretical upper bound under perfect information. The proposed Transformer model closely approximates this optimum, achieving 19.33% cost reduction while enabling real-time inference. Overall, the results demonstrate that the proposed supervised IL approach can achieve near-optimal control performance with substantially reduced computational effort for real-time energy management applications. Full article

The large-scale rapid deployment of renewable generation and energy storage is transforming traditional power system dynamics through intermittency, reduced inertia, and pronounced long-range temporal dependence. Existing power system modeling frameworks are primarily based on short-memory assumptions and integer-order dynamics, which are unable to capture the persistence and oscillatory behavior of emerging renewable-dominant power systems. This structural mismatch leads to inaccurate system representation and degraded long-horizon prediction performance. Although fractional calculus has been applied to specific control and forecasting tasks in power systems, the joint system-level modeling of renewable generation and load demand using real-world data remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we develop a data-driven fractional-order dynamic modeling framework that explicitly incorporates long-memory effects into the governing equations through fractional differential equations based on the Caputo formulation. Using publicly available high-resolution datasets of load and renewable generation, empirical analysis reveals power-law decaying autocorrelations and dominant low-frequency spectral characteristics that motivate the use of fractional-order dynamics. Fractional orders and model parameters are jointly identified through prediction-error minimization to ensure consistency between modeled trajectories and observed persistence. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves a root–mean–square error of $3.12$, compared to $5.64$ and $4.98$ for integer-order and finite-memory models, respectively, and reduces the normalized root–mean–square error from $0.156$ and $0.132$ to $0.087$. Residual and spectral analyses further confirm that long-memory behavior is effectively captured by the proposed dynamics. The framework provides a scalable and physically interpretable foundation for the data-driven modeling of renewable-dominant power systems. Full article

Accurate prediction of distribution network operating states is essential for implementing proactive fault warning systems. However, with the high penetration of distributed energy resources, measurement data exhibit strong nonlinearity and multi-scale temporal characteristics, posing significant challenges to existing prediction methods. Current mainstream approaches face a critical dilemma: traditional recurrent neural network (RNN) models (e.g., LSTM) suffer from vanishing gradients and memory bottlenecks in long-sequence forecasting, making it difficult to capture long-term evolutionary trends. In contrast, while standard Transformer models excel at global modeling, their smoothing effect renders them insensitive to subtle transient abrupt changes such as voltage sags, and they incur high computational complexity. To address the dual challenges of “difficulty in capturing transient abrupt changes” and “inability to simultaneously handle long-term trends,” this paper proposes a fault precursor trend prediction model that integrates Extended Long Short-Term Memory (XLSTM) with Informer, termed XLSTM-Informer. To tackle the challenge of extracting transient features, an XLSTM-based local encoder is constructed. By replacing the conventional Sigmoid activation with an improved exponential gating mechanism, the model achieves significantly enhanced sensitivity to instantaneous fluctuations in voltage and current. Additionally, a matrix memory structure is introduced to effectively mitigate information forgetting issues during long-sequence training. To overcome the challenge of modeling long-term dependencies, Informer is employed as the global decoder. Leveraging its ProbSparse sparse self-attention mechanism, the model substantially reduces computational complexity while accurately capturing long-range temporal dependencies. Experimental results on a real-world distribution network dataset demonstrate that the proposed model achieves substantially lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to standalone CNN, LSTM, and other baseline models, as well as conventional LSTM–Informer hybrid approaches. Particularly under extreme operating conditions—such as sustained high summer loads and winter heating peak loads—the model successfully overcomes the trade-off limitations of traditional methods, enabling simultaneous and accurate prediction of both local precursors and global trends. This provides a reliable technical foundation for proactive warning systems in distribution networks. Full article

Accurate short-term electric load forecasting is essential for the operation and management of energy-intensive manufacturing processes such as quicklime production, for which power demand is driven by stage-based operation, fixed schedules, and abrupt load transitions. This study presents a data-driven forecasting framework based on a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model applied to real industrial measurements collected during 2024 from an operating quicklime production plant. The dataset comprises hourly average power demand records (kW) measured at a plant level, stage-dependent motor operation, and a fixed working schedule from 08:00 to 18:00 (Monday to Friday), with weekends and non-operational hours characterized by near-zero load. Coke consumption during the calcination stage is included as an additional contextual variable. The TFT model is trained for multi-horizon forecasting and provides probabilistic prediction intervals through quantile regression. Weekly evaluations demonstrate that the proposed approach accurately captures start–stop behavior, peak-load periods, and structured inactivity intervals. In addition to point-wise accuracy metrics, cumulative energy is evaluated by integrating hourly power over the forecasting horizon, allowing the assessment of energy preservation at the operational level. The resulting energy deviation reaches 4.78% for the full horizon and 5.25% when restricted to active production hours, confirming strong consistency between predicted and actual cumulative energy. A comparative analysis against LSTM, GRU, and N-BEATS models shows that recurrent architectures achieve lower MAE and RMSE values, while the TFT model delivers superior cumulative energy consistency, highlighting a trade-off between instantaneous accuracy and operational energy fidelity. Overall, the results demonstrate that the proposed TFT-based framework provides a robust and practically relevant solution for short-term industrial electric load forecasting and decision support in stage-driven manufacturing systems under real operating conditions. Full article

The aim of this study is to investigate and demonstrate the role of correction functions and optimisation-based refinement algorithms in enhancing the performance of machine learning models, particularly in predictive anomaly detection tasks applied in industrial environments. The performance of machine learning models is highly dependent on the quality of data preprocessing, model architecture, and post-processing methodology. In many practical applications—particularly in time-series forecasting and anomaly detection—the conventional training pipeline alone is insufficient, because model uncertainty, structural bias and the handling of rare events require specialised post hoc calibration and refinement mechanisms. This study provides a systematic overview of the role of correction functions (e.g., Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Squared Prediction Error (SPE)/Q-statistics, Hotelling’s T², Bayesian calibration) and adaptive improvement algorithms (e.g., Genetic Algorithms (GA), Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), Simulated Annealing (SA), Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and ensemble-based techniques) in enhancing the performance of machine learning pipelines. The models were trained on a real industrial dataset compiled from power network analytics and harmonic-injection-based loading conditions. Model validation and equipment-level testing were performed using a large-scale harmonic measurement dataset collected over a five-year period. The reliability of the approach was confirmed by comparing predicted state transitions with actual fault occurrences, demonstrating its practical applicability and suitability for integration into predictive maintenance frameworks. The analysis demonstrates that correction functions introduce deterministic transformations in the data or error space, whereas improvement algorithms apply adaptive optimisation to fine-tune model parameters or decision boundaries. The combined use of these approaches significantly reduces overfitting, improves predictive accuracy and lowers false alarm rates. This work introduces the concept of an Organically Adaptive Predictive (OAP) ML model. The proposed model presents organic adaptivity, continuously adjusting its predictive behaviour in response to dynamic variations in network loading and harmonic spectrum composition. The introduced terminology characterises the organically emergent nature of the adaptive learning mechanism. Full article

As a promising alternative for cleaner vehicles, the growth of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption should be supported by a reliable charging infrastructure. Therefore, projecting the charging load is required to ensure that the electricity supply is adequate as BEV adoption increases. This study proposes a multistage approach for projecting BEV charging load demand, linking a One-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN) forecasting model with BEV users’ travel behavior analysis to perform spatiotemporal agent-based trip and charging simulations, which model various types of BEVs traveling across multiple regions. The 1D-CNN model achieves high performance with an RMSE of 0.073 and an R² of 0.881, providing a 10-year BEV adoption outlook. The empirical study in nine regions of Greater Jakarta, Indonesia, shows the one-week temporal charging load demand for three milestone periods—2025, 2030, and 2035—exploring weekday and weekend demand, as well as home and public charging demand at points of interest (POIs). This study identifies a difference between aggregate charging load demand and per-vehicle load intensity: the aggregate demand concentration occurs in South Jakarta (21% for public charging and 22% for home charging), while the highest per-vehicle spatial concentration ratio occurs in Depok (36% for public charging and 16% for home charging) due to long-distance travel patterns. The distribution of charging demand at the subdistrict level provides a basis for charging infrastructure placement, transformer sizing, and charging tariff design. Full article

Accurate identification of user–transformer relationships is fundamental to refined management, load forecasting, and fault diagnosis in low-voltage distribution networks. Traditional approaches often rely on costly manual inspection or complex physical modeling, which limits their scalability. This paper proposes a frequency-domain representation learning and weakly supervised optimization method for automatic transformer-area identification from large-scale user electricity data with incomplete labels. Specifically, the proposed method first applies the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to convert users’ voltage and current time series into robust frequency-domain feature vectors, effectively revealing intrinsic periodic structures while reducing noise interference. Then, under limited supervision, a deep metric learning framework is employed to optimize the embedding space such that users belonging to the same transformer area are clustered more compactly, while those from different areas are separated farther apart. Finally, a high-density clustering algorithm is applied in the optimized embedding space to complete the transformer-area partition for all users. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively leverage limited label information and significantly improve transformer-area identification accuracy, providing an efficient and low-cost solution for digitalized operation and maintenance of low-voltage distribution networks. Full article

To predict the output power of integrated energy systems (IES) under zero-carbon conditions, this research presents a Multi Data Fusion-based iTransformer prediction network (MDF-iTransformer). The network uses Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) to identify nonlinear relationships among variables and extract dynamic features from multi-modal data. It integrates an embedding block and multivariate attention module into the iTransformer network to capture complex patterns and long-term temporal dependencies in multi-dimensional data, thereby extracting dynamic features across different time scales and spatial dimensions. Subsequently, to address the issue of imbalanced datasets, the improved K-means-SMOTE (KS) algorithm is adopted to augment the number of small-class samples, effectively reducing model bias. Experimental results indicate that the proposed MDF-iTransformer achieves a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 7.2 kW, mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.6 kW, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.7%, and an R-squared value (R²) of 0.92 for a 1 h prediction horizon. It still maintains an RMSE of 14.4 kW, MAE of 11.9 kW, MAPE of 3.68%, and R² of 0.74 at the 10 h horizon, with cross-season load forecasting errors consistently below 4%. Compared with other algorithms, MDF-iTransformer demonstrates higher accuracy and stronger robustness, playing a crucial role in the optimal operation of integrated energy systems. Full article

Electricity load forecasting is of high importance for electricity management. Modern power systems are complex and diverse, resulting in increased randomness and nonlinear factors of electricity load data, which greatly increases the difficulty of forecasting. This paper proposes a hybrid-deep-learning-based load forecasting method, named DCFformer (DFT-CNN-FEDformer), for short-term load forecasting (STLF) tasks. The method first employs the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) to denoise time-sequence data on electricity load, so that fluctuations caused by incidents can be reduced. Secondly, it utilizes a convolutional neural network (CNN) that produces sequences of local features extracted from the denoised time sequences. Thirdly, a FEDformer network is applied to perform load forecasting by using extracted feature sequences. In the experiments, we utilize datasets from three regional power systems or apparatuses to compare the proposed DCFformer with other approaches, and the results show that, under the same conditions, DCFformer outperforms the competitors in forecasting precision, which proves the significance of its performance and practicality. Full article

Short-Term Residential Load Forecasting (STRLF) is a core task in smart grid dispatching and energy management, and its accuracy directly affects the economy and stability of power systems. Current mainstream methods still have limitations in addressing issues such as complex temporal patterns, strong stochasticity of load data, and insufficient model interpretability. To this end, this paper proposes an explainable and efficient forecasting framework named KAN+Transformer, which integrates Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KAN) with Transformers. The framework achieves performance breakthroughs through three innovative designs: constructing a Reversible Mixture of KAN Experts (RMoK) layer, which optimizes expert weight allocation using a load-balancing loss to enhance feature extraction capability while preserving model interpretability; designing an attention-guided cascading mechanism to dynamically fuse the local temporal patterns extracted by KAN with the global dependencies captured by the Transformer; and introducing a multi-objective loss function to explicitly model the periodicity and trend characteristics of load data. Experiments on four power benchmark datasets show that KAN+Transformer significantly outperforms advanced models such as Autoformer and Informer; ablation studies confirm that the KAN module and the specialized loss function bring accuracy improvements of 7.2% and 4.8%, respectively; visualization analysis further verifies the model’s decision-making interpretability through weight-feature correlation, providing a new paradigm for high-precision and explainable load forecasting in smart grids. Collectively, the results demonstrate our model’s superior capability in representing complex residential load dynamics and capturing both transient and stable consumption behaviors. By enabling more accurate, interpretable, and computationally efficient short-term load forecasting, the proposed KAN+Transformer framework provides effective support for demand-side management, renewable energy integration, and intelligent grid operation. As such, it contributes to improving energy utilization efficiency and enhancing the sustainability and resilience of modern power systems. Full article