Search Results (194)

The study examines economic and non-economic endeavors to explore the association between family involvement and financial decisions within family firms. The non-economic factors of a family drive the need to analyze the impact of socioemotional factors on the financial policies of the family firms. The study explores the impact of family ownership, family management, and family control drawn from agency theory and socioemotional wealth perspectives on the financial decisions of family firms. Our findings in support of the socioemotional wealth perspective show a positive relationship between family ownership and debt financing with a desire to finance growth and avoid control dilution, with an increase in the level of debt. However, the involvement of family members in management and the top management team leads to an adverse relationship between family ownership and debt level, exhibiting the risk-averse behavior of a firm, which drives firms to reduce debt levels. Overall, our findings suggest that the perceptions of the socioemotional wealth theoretical paradigm are important in determining capital structure decisions in family enterprises. The results are resilient to potential endogeneity and heterogeneity difficulties, which may assist scholars and practitioners in assessing capital structure decisions in emerging economies. Full article

This study examines the impact of board characteristics on capital structure decisions in the context of a transition economy, focusing on Algeria, where governance institutions are underdeveloped and the financial market remains immature. Using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on a panel dataset of 120 firms over the period 2015 to 2019, we identify a U-shaped relationship between board size and leverage, and an inverted U-shaped relationship between board size and debt maturity. Furthermore, increased nationality diversity on boards is found to significantly reduce debt maturity. These findings highlight the critical role of board composition in shaping corporate financing strategies in transition economies and provide novel insights into corporate governance dynamics in a relatively underexplored institutional context. The results are particularly relevant for national entities such as COSOB and Hawkama El Djazaïr and may guide banking sector practices by promoting the integration of board governance criteria into credit evaluation processes. Full article

The study of capital structure is one of the most relevant topics in finance because, despite the various theories that seek to explain it, there is still no consensus on the determining factors or the behaviors of financing decisions in companies. This study empirically analyzes the capital structure decisions of Latin American companies during the period of 2013–2023, in light of trade-off and pecking order theories. A panel data methodology was applied to 62 companies, using fixed and random effects models. The results show that, on average, companies correct around 5.80% of the gap between their current and optimal level of indebtedness per period, partially supporting the trade-off theory. However, the effects of the financial deficit on indebtedness are heterogeneous and, in most cases, inconsistent with the pecking order theory, especially in countries such as Colombia. It is concluded that country risk has a marginal influence on debt decisions, and the need to consider each country’s institutional and market particularities when analyzing the dynamics of capital structure in emerging economies is emphasized. Full article

Housing prices have recently risen sharply in many countries, primarily linked to the global credit cycle. Although various factors play a role, the ability of developing countries to navigate this cycle and maintain autonomous monetary policies is crucial. This paper introduces a dynamic macroeconomic model featuring a housing production sector within an imperfect banking framework. It captures key housing and economic dynamics in advanced and emerging economies. The analysis shows domestic liquidity policies, such as bank capital requirements, reserve ratios, and currency devaluation, can stabilize investment and production. However, their effectiveness depends on foreign interest rates and liquidity. Stabilizing housing prices and risk-free bonds is more effective in high-interest environments, while foreign liquidity shocks have asymmetric impacts. They can boost or lower the effectiveness of domestic policy, depending on the country’s level of financial development. These findings have several policy implications. For example, foreign capital controls would be adequate in the short term but not in the long term. Instead, governments would try to promote the development of local financial markets. Controlling debt should be a target for macroprudential policy as well as promoting saving instruments other than real estate, especially during low interest rates. Full article

This paper highlights the importance of accounting for both the maturity structure of government debt and the composition of fiscal instruments when studying the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model featuring a debt maturity structure and six exogenous fiscal shocks spanning both the expenditure and revenue sides, we show that long-maturity debt systematically weakens the expansionary effects of fiscal policy under dovish monetary policy, particularly in response to increases in government purchases, government investment, and capital income tax cuts, where long-term financing leads to the significant crowding-out of private activity. In contrast, short-term debt financing yields output multipliers that often exceed unity. The maturity structure also alters the relative efficacy of fiscal instruments: while labor income tax cuts produce the largest multipliers under short-term debt, government purchases become more potent under long-term debt financing. We also show that the stark difference between short- and long-term debt becomes muted under a hawkish monetary regime. Our results have important policy implications, suggesting that the maturity composition of public debt should be carefully considered in the design of fiscal policy, particularly in high-debt economies. Full article

This study explores the impact of growth opportunities on the capital structure of South African banks, utilising panel data from registered banking institutions covering the period from 2014 to 2023. While a substantial body of literature examines the relationship between growth prospects and corporate leverage, limited attention has been paid to this interaction within the banking sector, particularly in emerging economies. By employing the dynamic panel Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to address endogeneity concerns, the analysis reveals a statistically significant positive relationship between growth opportunities and both the total debt ratio (TDR) and the long-term debt ratio (LTDR). In contrast, a significant negative association is found between growth opportunities and the short-term debt ratio (STDR). The findings suggest that banks with stronger growth prospects are more inclined to utilise long-term financing, possibly reflecting shareholder preferences for institutions with favourable future outlooks and lower refinancing risks. These results highlight the importance of aligning capital structure decisions with an institution’s growth trajectory, while indicating that this relationship shifts depending on the maturity of the debt considered. This study contributes to the existing literature by contextualising capital structure decisions within the framework of growth opportunities. Structure theory within the context of the banking sector in a developing market offers practical insights for strategic financial planning and regulatory policy. Full article

This study reframes closure intention in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as an ex ante diagnostic signal rather than a post-mortem symptom of failure. The survey evidence from 385 Ecuadorian SMEs was analyzed in two stages; confirmatory factor analysis validated the scales capturing environmental pessimism and personal pressures, and a structural equation model confirmed that both latent constructs directly heighten exit propensity. A binomial logistic regression model correctly classified 71% of the cases and explained 30% of variance. Five variables proved decisive: low-level liquidity (OR = 0.84), a high debt-to-equity ratio (1.41), weak profitability (0.14), negative environmental perceptions (1.72), and a shorter operating tenure (0.91); the sector and the firm size were non-significant. The combined CFA-SEM-logit sequence yields practical early warning thresholds—debt-to-equity ratio > 1.4, current ratio < 1.0, and ROA < 0.15—that lenders, advisers, and entrepreneurs can embed in dashboards or credit screens. Recognizing closure intention as a rational, strategic step challenges the stigma surrounding exit and links financial distress and the strategic exit theory. Policymakers can use the findings to pair debt relief and liquidity programs with cognitive bias training that helps owners interpret risk signals realistically. For scholars, the results highlight closure intention as a dynamic learning process, especially pertinent in emerging economies characterized by informality and institutional fragility. Full article

The increasingly observable financial vulnerability of households in emerging market countries makes it imperative to investigate the factors influencing it. Considering that China stands as a representative of emerging market economies, analyzing the factors influencing household financial vulnerability in China presents great reference significance for the sustainable development of households in emerging market countries. Using data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) household samples, this paper presents the regional distribution of households with financial vulnerability in China. Utilizing machine learning (ML), this research examines the factors that influence household financial vulnerability in China and determines the most significant ones. The results reveal that households with financial vulnerability in China takes up a proportion of more than 63%, and household financial vulnerability is lower in economically developed coastal regions than in medium and small-sized cities in the central and western parts of China. The analysis results of the SHAP method show that the debt leverage ratio of a household is the most significant feature variable in predicting financial vulnerability. The ALE plots demonstrate that, in a household, the debt leverage ratio, the age of household head, health condition, economic development and literacy level are significantly nonlinearly related to financial vulnerability. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that, except for household debt leverage and insurance participation, the key characteristic variables exerting the most pronounced effect on financial fragility differ between urban and rural households: household head age for urban families and physical health status for rural families. Furthermore, digital financial inclusion and social security exert distinct impacts on financial vulnerability, showing significantly stronger effects in high per capita GDP regions and low per capita GDP regions, respectively. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers in emerging economies to formulate targeted financial risk mitigation strategies—such as developing household debt relief and prevention mechanisms and strengthening rural health security systems—and optimize policies for household financial health. Full article

As ESG practices become increasingly embedded in global capital markets, their impact on firm financing costs remains an open question in emerging economies, where regulatory divergence and rating inconsistency complicate investor perceptions, particularly in China’s rapidly evolving financial environment. This study examines the impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance on financing costs among Chinese non-financial listed firms, with a focus on the moderating roles of financial regulation and ESG rating divergence. Using a panel dataset of 4493 firms across 33,773 firm–year observations from 2011 to 2022, we employ a two-way fixed effects model, along with Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID) techniques, to address endogeneity concerns and enhance causal inference. The findings reveal that improvements in ESG performance significantly reduce financing costs, substantially affecting debt relative to equity. Moreover, the cost-saving benefits of ESG are amplified in industries with stronger regulatory oversight, while high ESG rating divergence undermines these benefits by increasing uncertainty. These results highlight the importance of standardizing ESG rating systems and enhancing regulatory consistency. Such efforts can lower capital costs and improve financial access for firms, particularly in capital-intensive and environmentally sensitive sectors, offering actionable guidance for policymakers shaping disclosure frameworks and corporate managers optimizing ESG investment strategies. Full article

This paper examines the impacts of observed versus uncertain (stochastic) institutional quality of corporate debt financing. This paper compares the impacts of two distinct levels of institutional quality in developed and developing economies. World governance indicators (WGIs) are used as proxies for institutional quality. Stochastic Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) is used to quantify the institutional uncertainty of WGIs. The results of GLS estimates using a sample of 309 nonfinancial listed firms in G8 countries and 373 nonfinancial listed firms in MENA countries covering the years 2016–2022 show (a) positive (negative) stochastic impacts of voice and accountability (government effectiveness and political stability) on debt financing in the G8 and MENA regions; (b) although potential improvements in institutional quality are shared concerns among G8 and MENA countries, the former outperforms the latter in terms of creditors’ contract protection and enforcement, paving the way for public policy makers in the MENA region to enhance regulations that protect debt contractual obligations; (c) macroeconomic variables have sporadic impacts; GDP growth is significant in G8 but not in MENA countries; (d) the negative impacts of inflation rates are consistent in both regions; and (e) unemployment plays a negative signaling role in the G8 region only. This paper contributes to the related literature by examining the uncertain impact of institutional quality on corporate debt financing. This paper offers implications for policy makers, directing them to focus on institutional endeavors in a way that helps companies secure the debt financing required to support investment growth. Full article

Many of the existing theoretical and empirical studies ignore the two-way relationship between a sovereign’s credit risk and economy. To address this gap, we develop a theoretical model that incorporates the feedback effects of sovereign-debt credit risk on a country’s economy and then provide empirical implications. The model links the risks of sovereign debt and economic fundamentals through a two-way transmission mechanism. In doing so, it demonstrates how economic-fundamentals-driven sovereign-debt credit risk can have a significant impact on economic fundamentals through a feedback effect that has the potential to significantly raise the sensitivity of a country’s economic performance to shocks from both the credit risk associated with sovereign debt and economic fundamentals. The outcomes of the theoretical model are then verified by empirically testing the feedback effects using a structural equation model (SEM) framework on data covering sovereign debt defaults worldwide. We demonstrate how disregarding feedback effects may result in information that is insufficient and less helpful to public-debt-management policymakers. Full article

Effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policy is crucial for macroeconomic stability, yet achieving it presents significant challenges due to differing objectives and institutional setups. This study evaluates the strategic interaction between fiscal and monetary authorities in Hungary from 2013 to 2023, employing the Nash equilibrium framework under the assumption of non-cooperative behavior. By modeling the authorities as independent players optimizing distinct payoff functions based on key economic indicators (interest rates, government spending, inflation, output gap, fiscal deficit, and public debt), the analysis estimates the best response strategies and computes the resulting Nash equilibrium. The key findings reveal persistent deviations between actual policies and the computed equilibrium strategies. Specifically, actual fiscal policy was consistently more expansionary (average actual deficit −2.6% to 7.6% GDP vs. equilibrium recommendations ranging from 8.5% surplus to −3.0% deficit) than the Nash equilibrium indicated, particularly during periods of economic growth. Monetary policy often lagged in equilibrium recommendations, maintaining low interest rates (e.g., 0.9% actual vs. 11.5% equilibrium in 2019) before implementing sharp increases (13% actual vs. approx. 3.5–3.8% equilibrium in 2022–2023) that significantly overshot the equilibrium. These misalignments underscore potential suboptimal outcomes arising from independent policymaking, contributing to increased public debt and heightened inflationary pressures in the Hungarian context. This study highlights the potential benefits of aligning policies closer to mutually consistent strategies, suggesting that improved coordination frameworks could enhance macroeconomic stability, offering insights relevant to Hungary and similar economies. Full article

Most of indexes regarding Credit Rating of the national debt bonds are associated to Gross National Product, which involves the well-known Keynesian Multiplicator of the IS-LM Equilibrium. Specifically, a common way of Sovereign Debt evaluation is its percentage of the Gross National Product in terms of a spot value. Another index is the spot value of the percentage of the annual interest rate payments of the state to the owners of sovereign debt. These indexes provide an inefficient evaluation of the national debt and moreover they are sensitive in their calculative aspect. Hence, we propose another index of national debt evaluation, which is more realistic, since public debt is a part of the balance sheet of the state itself. Moreover, this index may be translated into growth variables of the national economy. Since Gross National Product relies on consumption of the Economy, more consumption implies an ’illusion’ about sovereign debt. On the other hand, this index has limits to its credibility because it depends on the size of the annual investments. Full article

This study examines the issue of fiscal sustainability—measured through the response of the budgetary balance to public debt levels—for 36 OECD countries and candidate countries, and it shows that the relationship is non-linear and depends on the level of the informal economy as a threshold variable. Using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression model, the analysis uncovers regime-dependent fiscal behavior, indicating that the effect of public debt on the budget deficit varies significantly under different economic conditions. In regime 1—at a low level of the informal economy-, the impact of debt on the budgetary deficit is negative and significant, but in regime 2—when the informal economy exceeds the transition threshold-, this impact becomes positive and significant. These results indicate that, in an economic context with a larger informal economy, debt may have a different effect on the budgetary deficit, possibly due to factors such as reduced fiscal efficiency or loss of government revenue. Therefore, fiscal sustainability can be affected by the level of the informal economy. Full article

Traditionally, business risk management models have not taken into consideration household composition for the purposes of credit granting or project financing in order to manage the risk of default. In this research, an improvement in the risk management model was obtained by introducing household composition as a new exogenous variable. With the application of generalized reduced gradient nonlinear optimization modeling, improved consumption units are determined according to the different types of household size and the age of their members. Estimated household economies of scale show a consistent pattern even in the year 2020, corresponding with the COVID-19 outbreak. Thus, an adjusted estimation of the household equivalized disposable income is obtained. Based on this more accurate equivalized income estimation, acceptable debt levels can be determined. The estimation of probabilities of default allows the household risk of default to be managed. In this way, a novel model is proposed by incorporating household composition into credit risk evaluation using fuzzy clustering and optimization techniques. Companies can assess the expected loss of a credit exposure through a model that can help them in the process of making evidence-informed decisions. Full article