Search Results (15)

Earthquakes are sudden-onset disasters requiring rapid, accurate information for effective crisis response. Social media (SM) platforms provide abundant geospatial data but are often unstructured and produced by diverse users, posing challenges in filtering relevant content. Traditional content filtering methods rely on natural language processing (NLP), which underperforms with mixed-language posts or less widely spoken languages. Moreover, these approaches often neglect the spatial proximity of users to the event, a crucial factor in determining relevance during disasters. This study proposes an NLP-free model that assesses the spatial credibility of SM content by analysing users’ spatial trajectories. Using earthquake-related tweets, we developed a machine learning-based classification model that categorises posts as directly relevant, indirectly relevant, or irrelevant. The Random Forest model achieved the highest overall classification accuracy of 89%, while the k-NN model performed best for detecting directly relevant content, with an accuracy of 63%. Although promising overall, the classification accuracy for the directly relevant category indicates room for improvement. Our findings highlight the value of spatial analysis in enhancing the reliability of SM data (SMD) during crisis events. By bypassing textual analysis, this framework supports relevance classification based solely on geospatial behaviour, offering a novel method for evaluating content trustworthiness. This spatial approach can complement existing crisis informatics tools and be extended to other disaster types and event-based applications. Full article

With the increasing frequency of natural and man-made disasters, emergency management has become a key research field aimed at saving lives and reducing environmental and economic losses. As the core link in responding to sudden crisis events, emergency decision-making is directly related to the stability of society, the safety of citizens, and the robustness of infrastructure. As a scientific method, multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) technology has gradually become an important tool for solving complex decision-making problems in emergency management. It can handle the uncertainty, heterogeneity, dynamicity, and interaction in emergencies and select the best alternative or rank all options for multiple reference attributes in a limited number of options to solve decision-making problems. This paper comprehensively reviews the existing relevant literature, analyzes the current status and challenges of MCDM technology in its application process and in emergency management, and proposes research gaps and development directions in this field. Full article

(1) Background: Risk perception is a key factor in motivating people to comply with preventive behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Appropriate risk perception is important to enhance beliefs and promote emergency management response to public health events. (2) Objective: This study developed a public risk perception measurement method for social media data to understand the dynamic characteristics of risk perception and emotional expression during public health emergencies. (3) Methods: Utilizing text-mining techniques and deep-learning algorithms, risk perception was calculated from two dimensions (dread and unknown) as well as the emotional expression characteristics of 185,025 posts from 10 January 2020 to 20 March 2020 on Sina Weibo. We also analyzed the characteristics of risk perception at different stages of the crisis life cycle. Furthermore, drawing on arousal theory, we constructed dynamic response relationships between emotion type (angry, fearful, sad, positive, and neutral) and risk perceptions by a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. (4) Results: The results revealed that the public expresses significantly more dread words than unknown words in shaping the risk perception process. As for the characteristics of evolution, public risk perception had been at a high level since the outbreak stage, and there was a sudden increase and a gradual decrease in the level of public risk perception. We also found that there is a significant response relationship between positive emotion, angry emotion, and risk perception. (5) Conclusion: This study provides a theoretical basis for more targeted epidemic crisis interventions. It points out the need for health communication strategy makers to consider the public’s risk perception and emotional expression characteristics during public health emergencies. Full article

The sudden shift of online teaching activities in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruption. It has been a challenge for both students and teachers. It has also presented an opportunity for a critical analysis of the subject of the educational process in an era of wide access to information technology. One of the desirable consequences of the analysis is to highlight the didactic usefulness of hybrid events. A collective autoethnographic text about the challenges related to moving teaching activities to an online environment during the pandemic at Transilvania University in Brașov (Romania), and an observation report on a cultural event held in hybrid mode in a Europe for Citizens project, hosted by the same university, support the recommendation to consider hybrid education as a solution that must be available to teachers for the efficient management of future possible crisis situations. The teachers retroactively appreciated the logistical, economic and comfort advantages of online education, but they pointed out the difficulties of conducting the teaching process entirely online. The hosted hybrid event highlighted the utility of being able to quickly transition from offline to online. Hybrid learning is efficient because it can combine the benefits of online and offline learning. Teachers trained to manage hybrid events will feel a reduced impact in future crisis situations. Full article

Introducing uncertainty under fiscal sustainability conditions for the public debt provides a framework for analyzing debt dynamics. Such methods are commonly used for fiscal projections, but our aim here is retrospective; we evaluate the sudden jump in the Hungarian public debt following the global financial crisis in 2008. Based on a traditional debt-deficit stock-flow identity combining the fiscal component (primary deficit) and the interactions among real sector components, we model the debt dynamics by a vector error correction model (VECM). Uncertainty is represented in the model by shocks that are identified in the VECM framework. Using this method for simulation starting from 2006, we found that the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2008 and after could not be ruled out by 90 percent probability. Such an event was coded in the Hungarian debt dynamics and very likely would have materialized even without the unfortunate events of the global financial crisis. Full article

The continuous depletion of nonrenewable natural resources and climate change may lead to a future characterized by a higher frequency of extreme natural events (i.e., flooding, hurricanes, and droughts) and resource supply shocks (i.e., oil price shock). Sub-Saharan African countries will be particularly exposed to these types of shock due to their socioeconomic conditions and geographical conformation. This study investigates the impact of two contemporaneous covariant sudden shocks (i.e., drought and price oil shock) and the possible coping strategies through a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Kenya. The results suggest that a mitigation policy as public transfers is an effective mitigation tool for drought effects, improving welfare and GDP in the short run. However, adopting public transfers during an oil crisis may have regressive effects on population income and welfare. Because the mitigation effectiveness is strongly affected by the complex interaction of combined shocks, the public authorities should pay attention to policy implementation. These findings call for a new scheme of transfer allocation where rural and low-income household quantiles should receive more attention by postdrought mitigation policy, being that they are more vulnerable to external shocks. Full article

The Energy transition is fiercely competitive. The incumbents of fossil-based energy are in conflict with the advocate coalitions of transition in energy policy changes. Such changes do not occur as sudden punctuation via an external shock, but rather incrementally and over time, by incorporating power insights such as lobbies, coalitions, and campaigns. This article provides a framework grounded in theoretical power theories and draws additional insights from policy mix studies. It investigates how focusing events and feedback loops shape the coalition of interest groups in policymaking through implementations of power mechanisms. Our framework is tested through two different power stories of energy transition in Iran and Germany. Our findings reveal that the centrally planned economy of Iran leaves society with a negligible or passive role in the energy transition. The passive role of society in the energy transition is mainly caused by subsidizing energy. In addition, the financial and economic crisis resulting from other macro-economic challenges, such as sanctions, may exacerbate the minor involvement of civil society in the slow expansion of renewables in Iran. By contrast, as a robust economy with a corporatist tradition, Germany has made a strong advocacy coalition of energy transition that resulted in political incentives for substantial renewable energy deployment. Regarding the theoretical question of the power dynamics in divergent countries’ energy transitions, the proposed framework based on the interest group coalitions and power mechanism offers an understanding of the social character of energy transitions. Full article

Large-scale failures of electric power systems (blackouts) have been the subject of intensive research in most countries for several years. This research aims primarily at seeking solutions to improve the reliability of the operation of power systems and the development of effective strategies to protect critical infrastructure from the effects of energy shortages and power cuts. In contrast, systematic research on crisis management and civil protection under conditions of prolonged blackout has been undertaken in Europe only recently, and these extremely important aspects of energy security have been delayed by the COVID-19 crisis. The ability of the Polish crisis management system to cope with the consequences of long-term, large-scale shortages and interruptions in the supply of electricity, as well as the consequences of possible failures in this field, has not been systematically examined to date. This issue is of growing strategic importance, not only from the point of view of security and defence policy, but also economic cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe. Poland’s infrastructural security must be considered in a broad regional and supra-regional context. A long-term lack of electricity in a large area of Poland would undermine the stability of the entire national security system, destabilising the region and supranational security systems. Apart from objective reasons, intentional attacks on the links of such a chain cannot be ruled out. Poland is the leader of this region, a frontline country in the NATO-Russia conflict, as well as a liaison state that provides the Baltic states—being EU and NATO members—with a land connection to Western Europe. In view of the growing risk of blackout, the importance of the problem and the existence of a cognitive gap in this field, we evaluated the Polish crisis management system in terms of its ability to respond to the effects of a sudden, long-term, large-scale blackout. Methodologically, we adopted a systems approach to security management. In order to estimate the consequences of a blackout, we used analogue forecasting tools and scenario analysis. By analysing previous crisis situations caused by blackouts and local conditions of vulnerability to such events, we formulated basic preparedness requirements that a modern crisis management system should meet in the face of the growing risk of blackouts. A review of strategic documents and crisis planning processes in public administration allowed us to identify deficits and weaknesses in the Polish crisis management system. On this basis we formulated recommendations whose implementation shall improve the ability of the national security system to face such challenges in the future. Full article

Overdependence and cumulative anthropogenic stresses have caused world forests to decrease at an unprecedented rate, especially in Southeast Asia. The Cox’s Bazar–Teknaf Peninsula of Bangladesh is not an exception and follows the global deforestation trend. Despite being one of the country’s richest forest ecosystems with multiple wildlife sanctuaries, reserve forests, and influential wildlife habitats, the peninsula is now providing shelter for nearly one million Rohingya refugees. With the global deforestation trend coupled with excessive anthropogenic stresses from the Rohingya population, the forests in the peninsula are continuously deteriorating in terms of quality and integrity. In response to deforestation, the government invested in conservation efforts through afforestation and restoration programs, although the peninsula faced a refugee crisis in August 2017. The impact of this sudden increase in population on the forest ecosystem is large and has raised questions and contradictions between the government’s conservation efforts and the humanitarian response. Relocation of the refugees seems to be a lengthy process and the forest ecosystem integrity needs to be preserved; therefore, the degree of stresses, level of impacts, and pattern of deforestation are crucial information for forest conservation and protection strategies. However, there are a lack of quantitative analyses on how the forest ecosystem is deteriorating and what future results would be in both space and time. In this study, the impact of the sudden humanitarian crisis (i.e., Rohingya refugees) as anthropogenic stress in Cox’s Bazar–Teknaf peninsula has been spatiotemporally modeled and assessed using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and other collateral data. Using the density and accessibility of the Rohingya population along with the land cover and other physiographic data, a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) technique was applied through the Markov cellular automata technique to model the forest vegetation status. The impact of deforestation differs in cost due to variability of the forest vegetation covers. The study, therefore, developed and adopted three indices for assessment of the forest ecosystem based on the variability and weight of the forest cover loss. The spatial severity of impact (SSI) index revealed that out of 5415 ha of total degraded forest lands, 650 ha area would have the highest cost from 2017 to 2027. In the case of the ecosystem integrity (EI) index, a rapid decline in ecosystem integrity in the peninsula was observed as the integrity value fell to 1190 ha (2019) from 1340 ha (2017). The integrity is expected to further decline to 740 ha by 2027, if the stress persists in a similar fashion. Finally, the findings of ecosystem integrity depletion (EID) elucidated areas of 540 and 544 hectares that had a severe EID score of (−5) between 2017 and 2019 and 2017 and 2027, respectively. The displacement and refugee crisis is a recurrent world event that, in many cases, compromises the integrity and quality of natural space. Therefore, the findings of this study are expected to have significant global and regional implications to help managers and policymakers of forest ecosystems make decisions that have minimal or no impact to facilitate humanitarian response. Full article

This paper integrates a low-carbon tourism supply chain consisting of a low-carbon tourist attraction (LTA) providing a low-carbon service and an online travel agency (OTA) responsible for big data marketing. Consumers may also encounter sudden crisis events that occur in the tourist attraction during their visit, and the occurrence of crisis events can damage the low-carbon goodwill of the tourist attraction to the detriment of the sustainable development of the supply chain. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate how tourism firms can develop dynamic strategies in the pre-crisis environment if they envision the occurrence of a crisis event and how crisis events affect interfirm cooperation. This paper uses stochastic jump processes to portray the dynamic evolution of low-carbon goodwill in the context of crisis events and introduces the methods of the differential game and Bellman’s continuous dynamic programming theory to study the sustainable operations of low-carbon tourism supply chains. Our findings provide important managerial insights for enterprises in the tourism supply chain and suggest that they need to not only become aware of the tourist attraction crisis events, but also, more importantly, they need to adjust their appropriate input strategies based on the degree of anticipation of the crisis. Full article

Major public health emergencies would have a negative influence on the psychology of the public, and an effective psychological intervention can help them to relieve some emotions, such as tension and panic. However, differences in individual environments affect people’s psychological intervention demands and intervention mode choices. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical value to analyze and identify the key factors affecting these demands and choices. Based on a nationwide sample of 24,188 respondents from the “Internet Survey of Residents’ Behavioral Changes and Psychological Conditions during the Epidemic”, the different characteristics of public psychological intervention demands and choices under different factors are explored in this paper. The results demonstrate that: (1) the psychological status of Chinese people was relatively stable during the epidemic period, and there were 1016 respondents who had subjective demands for a psychological intervention, (2) age, gender, occupation type, residence, family size, risk perception, psychological status, education level, and fixed expenditure all significantly affect public psychological intervention demands, and (3) risk perception, psychological status, age, gender, and family size will impact the choice of psychological intervention methods. The above results can provide a decision-making basis for the construction of a psychological intervention system in psychological crisis management during the post-epidemic prevention and control period, as well as reference and suggestions for handling psychological stress of similar sudden crisis events in the future. Full article

The presence of extreme hydrometeorological threats has co-occurred with the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing the potential risk of a disaster scenario occurring. The hurricane “Cristobal”, which impacted Mexico’s tropical regions, presented a high risk of contagion and death caused by the combined effects of violent winds, floods, and evacuations. This work aims to determine whether the presence of concurrent events during the pandemic caused an increase in confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the Yucatan Peninsula’s western sector. To achieve this, a numerical analysis and identification of the tropical storm’s extreme characteristics were conducted. Next, a combined analysis of the territorial system subject to flooding and the rainfall level reported during the emergency period was conducted at the municipal level. The third phase consisted of analyzing the confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 at the municipal level on four strategic dates (before, during, observation, and end of the emergency period). Finally, a content analysis of the emergency bulletins, action guides, and disaster declarations was carried out to identify the measures and adaptations implemented during the pandemic. It is recognized that emergency management measures were implemented for municipalities with more than 30 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and where the shelter capacity was reduced. Protocols for caring for people were followed, these being one of the leading adaptive methods. From the analyzed data, it can be pointed out that there is no direct evidence for an increase in positive COVID-19 cases in 10 of the municipalities. However, in the case of the municipality of Escarcega, there was a sudden increase in cases from June 8, which continues to grow. Therefore, it is necessary to deepen the study of multiple events to recognize the actions that can prevent catastrophes in these times of crisis. Full article

Surge capacity is the ability to manage the increased influx of critically ill or injured patients during a sudden onset crisis. During such an event, all ordinary resources are activated and used in a systematic, structured, and planned way to cope with the situation. There are, however, occasions where conventional healthcare means are insufficient, and additional resources must be summoned. In such an event, the activation of existing capabilities within community resources can increase regional surge capacity in a flexible manner. These additional resources together represent the concept of Flexible Surge Capacity. This study aims to investigate the possibility of establishing a Flexible Surge Capacity response system to emergencies by examining the main components of surge capacity (Staff, Stuff, Structure, System) within facilities of interest present in the Western Region of Sweden. Through a mixed-method and use of (A) questionnaires and (B) semi-structured key-informant interviews, data was collected from potential alternative care facilities to determine capacities and capabilities and barriers and limitations as well as interest to be included in a flexible surge capacity response system. Both interest and ability were found in the investigated primary healthcare centers, veterinary and dental clinics, schools, and sports and hotel facilities to participate in such a system, either by receiving resources and/or drills and exercises. Barriers limiting the potential participation in this response system consisted of a varying lack of space, beds, healthcare materials, and competencies along with a need for clear organizational structure and medical responsibility. These results indicate that the concept of flexible surge capacity is a feasible approach to emergency management. Educational initiatives, drills and exercises, layperson empowerment, organizational and legal changes and sufficient funding are needed to realize the concept. Full article

Background: Managing mass casualty or disaster incidents is challenging to any person or organisation. Therefore, this paper identifies and describes common challenges to managing such situations, using case and lessons learned reports. It focuses on sudden onset, man-made or technologically caused mass casualty or disaster situations. Methods: A management review was conducted based on a structured search in the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Results: The review included 20 case—and lessons learned reports covering natural disasters, man-made events, and accidents across Europe, the United States of Amerika (USA), Asia and the Middle East. Five common challenges were identified: (1) to identify the situation and deal with uncertainty, (2) to balance the mismatch between the contingency plan and the reality, (3) to establish a functional crisis organization, (4) to adapt the medical response to the actual and overall situation and (5) to ensure a resilient response. Conclusions: The challenges when managing mass casualty or disaster events involved were mainly related to the ability to manage uncertainty and surprising situations, using structured processes to respond. The ability to change mind set, organization and procedures, both from an organizational- and individual perspective, was essential. Non-medical factors and internal factors influenced the medical management. In order to respond in an effective, timely and resilient way, all these factors should be taken into consideration. Full article

This study analyzes the sudden rise, quick success, and gradual decline of democratic corporatism (DC) in Korea. The analysis and discussion in this paper is based on qualitative approach, combining semistructured interviews and a review of archival evidence on the sustainability of social dialogue in Korea. In addition, we also provide supplemental quantitative evidence based on interview results. The present study indicates that an event such as a sudden economic crisis can lead to short-term outcomes such as a swift experiment with DC, but determination of the very nature of a tripartite agreement and the long-term sustainability of DC hinges on structural elements and path dependence formed and built up over decades. Events in Korea show that a direct transition from state authoritarianism to DC is a difficult, if not impossible, task. Full article