Search Results (126)

Consider an evolving epidemic in which each person is either (S) susceptible and healthy; (E) exposed, contagious but asymptomatic; (I) infected, symptomatic, and quarantined; or (R) recovered, healthy, and susceptible. The inference problem, given (i) who is showing symptoms (I) and who is not (S, E, R) and (ii) the distribution of meetings among people each day, is to predict the number of infected people (state I) in future days (e.g., 1 through 20 days out into the future) for the purpose of planning resources (e.g., needles, medicine, staffing) and policy responses (e.g., masking). Each prediction horizon has different uses. For example, staffing may require forecasts of only a few days, while logistics (i.e., which supplies to order) may require a two- or three-week horizon. Our algorithm and system EpiInfer is a non-Markovian approach to forecasting infection rates. It is non-Markovian because it looks at infection rates over the past several days in order to make predictions about the future. In addition, it makes use of the following information: (i) the distribution of the number of meetings per person and (ii) the transition probabilities between states and uses those estimates to forecast future infection rates. In both simulated and real data, EpiInfer performs better than the standard (in epidemiology) differential equation approaches as well as general-purpose neural network approaches. Compared to ARIMA, EpiInfer is better starting with 6-day forecasts, while ARIMA is better for shorter forecast horizons. In fact, our operational recommendation would be to use ARIMA (1,1,1) for short predictions (5 days or less) and then EpiInfer thereafter. Doing so would reduce relative Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) over any state of the art method by up to a factor of 4. Predictions of this accuracy could be useful for people, supply, and policy planning. Full article

Classical epidemic models treat vaccine uptake as an exogenous parameter, yet real-world coverage emerges from strategic choices made by individuals facing uncertain risks. During the last two decades, vaccination games, which combine epidemic dynamics with game theory, behavioural economics, and network science, have become a very important tool for analysing this problem. Here, we synthesise more than 80 theoretical, computational, and empirical studies to clarify how population structure, psychological perception, pathogen complexity, and policy incentives interact to determine vaccination equilibria and epidemic outcomes. Papers are organised along five methodological axes: (i) population topology (well-mixed, static and evolving networks, multilayer systems); (ii) decision heuristics (risk assessment, imitation, prospect theory, memory); (iii) additional processes (information diffusion, non-pharmacological interventions, treatment, quarantine); (iv) policy levers (subsidies, penalties, mandates, communication); and (v) pathogen complexity (multi-strain, zoonotic reservoirs). Common findings across these studies are that voluntary vaccination is almost always sub-optimal; feedback between incidence and behaviour can generate oscillatory outbreaks; local network correlations amplify free-riding but enable cost-effective targeted mandates; psychological distortions such as probability weighting and omission bias materially shift equilibria; and mixed interventions (e.g., quarantine + vaccination) create dual dilemmas that may offset one another. Moreover, empirical work surveys, laboratory games, and field data confirm peer influence and prosocial motives, yet comprehensive model validation remains rare. Bridging the gap between stylised theory and operational policy will require data-driven calibration, scalable multilayer solvers, and explicit modelling of economic and psychological heterogeneity. This review offers a structured roadmap for future research on adaptive vaccination strategies in an increasingly connected and information-rich world. Full article

Planetary health is a transdisciplinary concept that erases the dividing lines between individual and community health, and the natural systems that support the wellbeing of humankind. Despite planetary health’s broad emphasis on justice, the promotion of science-based policies, and stated commitments to fairness, equity, and harm reduction, the criminal justice system has largely escaped scrutiny. This seems to be a major oversight, especially because the criminalization of mental illness is commonplace, and the system continues to be oriented around a prescientific compass of retribution and folk beliefs in willpower, moral fiber, and blameworthiness. Justice-involved juveniles and adults are funneled into landscapes of mass incarceration with ingrained prescientific assumptions. In non-criminal realms, such as obesity, there is a growing consensus that folk psychology ideas must be addressed at the root and branch. With this background, the Nova Institute for Health convened a transdisciplinary roundtable to explore the need for a ‘Copernican Revolution’ in the application of biopsychosocial sciences in law and criminal justice. This included discussions of scientific advances in neurobiology and omics technologies (e.g., the identification of metabolites and other biological molecules involved in behavior), the need for science education, ethical considerations, and the public health quarantine model of safety that abandons retribution. Full article

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the mental health and well-being of healthcare professionals worldwide. This study investigated the association between mental health factors, burnout syndrome, quality of life, and insomnia symptoms in healthcare professionals during the COVID-19 pandemic in Montenegro. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted between July and October 2021 among 299 healthcare professionals at the Clinical Center of Montenegro. Participants completed standardized questionnaires, including the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI-HSS), Athens Insomnia Scale (AIS), depression, anxiety, and stress scale (DASS-21), and EQ-5D health-related quality of life questionnaire. Results: Insomnia was reported in 65.0% of female and 35.0% of male participants, with a mean age of 38.57 ± 11.57 years. Insomnia symptoms were more common among those reporting alcohol consumption (p = 0.007), smoking (p = 0.006), and sedative use (p = 0.038). A higher workload (p = 0.017), previous COVID-19 infection (p = 0.001), and quarantine (p = 0.008) were linked to insomnia. Healthcare professionals with insomnia reported lower quality of life across all EQ-5D dimensions (p < 0.001) and higher levels of stress, anxiety, and depression (p < 0.001). Burnout was significantly associated with emotional exhaustion (p < 0.001), while depersonalization and personal achievement showed no significant differences. Conclusions: This study highlights a significant relationship between burnout, mental health issues, and insomnia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing these factors through targeted interventions and workplace policies is essential for improving healthcare professionals’ well-being and ensuring the healthcare system’s sustainability. Full article

With the rapid development of research on Wireless Radar Sensor Networks (WRSNs), security issues have become a major challenge. Recent studies have highlighted numerous security threats in WRSNs. Given their widespread application value, the operational security of WRSNs needs to be ensured. This study focuses on the problem of malware propagation in WRSNs. In this study, the complex characteristics of WRSNs are considered to construct the epidemic VCISQ model. The model incorporates necessary factors such as node density, Rayleigh fading channels, and time delay, which were often overlooked in previous studies. This model achieves a breakthrough in accurately describing real-world scenarios of malware propagation in WRSNs. To control malware spread, a hybrid control strategy combining quarantine and patching measures are introduced. In addition, the optimal control method is used to minimize control costs. Considering the robustness and adaptability of the control method, two model-free reinforcement learning (RL) strategies are proposed: Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Multi-Agent Proximal Policy Optimization (MAPPO). These strategies reformulate the original optimal control problem as a Markov decision process. To demonstrate the superiority of our approach, multi-dimensional ablation studies and numerical experiments are conducted. The results show that the hybrid control strategy outperforms single strategies in suppressing malware propagation and reducing costs. Furthermore, the experiments reveal the significant impact of time delays on the dynamics of the VCISQ model and control effectiveness. Finally, the PPO and MAPPO algorithms demonstrate superior performance in control costs and convergence compared to traditional RL algorithms. This highlights their effectiveness in addressing malware propagation in WRSNs. Full article

Understanding the effectiveness of different quarantine strategies is crucial for controlling the spread of COVID-19, particularly in regions with limited data. This study presents a SCIRD-inspired model to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in medium-sized cities and their surrounding satellite towns. Unlike previous works that focus primarily on large urban centers or homogeneous populations, our approach incorporates intercity mobility and evaluates the impact of spatially differentiated interventions. By analyzing lockdown strategies implemented during the first year of the pandemic, we demonstrate that short, localized lockdowns are highly effective in reducing virus propagation, while intermittent restrictions balance public health concerns with socioeconomic demands. A key contribution of this study is the validation of the epidemic model using real-world data from the 2021 lockdown that occurred in a medium-sized city, confirming its predictive accuracy and adaptability to different contexts. Additionally, we provide a detailed analysis of how mobility patterns between municipalities influence infection spread, offering a more comprehensive mathematical framework for decision-making. These findings advance the understanding of epidemic control in regions with sparse data and provide evidence-based insights to inform public health policies in similar contexts. Full article

Biosecurity is essential in livestock farming to prevent the spread of diseases, ensure animal welfare, and maintain farm sustainability. In Portugal, small ruminant farms are predominantly extensive and small-scale, and most of them are familiar, especially in the northern and inland regions. Thus, biosecurity implementation on these farms is low due to factors such as an aging livestock farmer population, poor training, limited veterinary support, and economic constraints. This study, the first to assess biosecurity on Portuguese small ruminant farms, evaluated compliance levels and the influence of sociodemographic factors. A cross-sectional study was conducted between July 2023 and April 2024, through structured interviews with 276 farmers. A 32-question checklist covering nine biosecurity categories was used to assess compliance. The results revealed poor implementation of key biosecurity measures, particularly cleaning and disinfection, quarantine protocols, and visitor control. Inadequate premises infrastructure, including the absence of quarantine areas, isolation facilities for sick animals, and farrowing rooms, further hampered disease prevention. Compliance was influenced by farmers’ age, education level, herd size, and production. Larger farms, particularly dairy farms, demonstrated better biosecurity practices, likely due to better management and infrastructure. This study highlights the challenges of implementing biosecurity measures on small-scale, extensive farms and argues that standardized plans are ineffective. Instead, region- and farm-specific strategies are needed, considering the socioeconomic realities of farmers. Improving farmers’ education and access to veterinary services is crucial. Furthermore, public policies should provide financial incentives and educational programs to improve biosecurity without compromising farm viability. Strengthening biosecurity on small ruminant farms is vital to protecting animal and public health and ensuring the long-term sustainability of rural communities in Portugal. Full article

Imported, non-native honey bees and bumble bees threaten native pollinators by spreading pathogens (disease and parasites) and outcompeting native pollinators for nectar and pollen. We reviewed Canadian federal, provincial/territorial, and municipal legislation to find governance requirements that potentially reduce these threats. We classified the requirements as follows: tracking the number and location of honey bee hives (registry); controlling the spread of pathogens (registry with inspections, quarantines, and cleaning regimes); controlling the competition with native pollinators (limiting shared use of space); and making regulations applicable to all domesticated bees in addition to honey bees. Policies and regulations to control the competition from honey bees are generally lacking. So, we propose the concept of “foraging leases” to manage the location and duration of honey bee apiaries on public lands. Based on the identified requirements, we recommend amendments to the legislation in Yukon Territory, a jurisdiction that still has healthy native pollinator communities that pollinate various human food and medicine crops. Recommendations include tracking hives and their pathogen status with beekeeping regulations enabled by the Animal Health Act, controlling the use of imported bumble bees with changes to the Animal Protection and Control Act and/or the Wildlife Act, and restricting use of public lands for apiaries with the Public Lands Act. Full article

Background: Quarantine is one of the most effective strategies to control outbreaks of communicable diseases. Individuals under isolation or quarantine experience both physical and mental effects. Therefore, given its widespread implementation around the world, it is pertinent to analyze this effect on physical and mental health. The psychosocial impact model, which divides four dimensions into two main points, exposure or protection and positive or negative responses, was used to analyze the psychosocial impact of quarantine. Objectives: The present study aimed to investigate the psychosocial impact of people exposed to or protected from quarantine. Methods: We conducted a search for primary articles in the Web of Science and Scopus databases, and after applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, we meta-analyzed five of them. Results: Quarantined individuals were more likely to experience anxiety (K = 4; OR = 2.62) and depressive symptoms (K = 6; OR = 1.61) compared to those who did not undergo quarantine. Researchers discuss a twofold increase in the probability of anxiety or depression among those in quarantine. As a result, advancing interventions that reduce this impact is critical for both health and the global economy. Conclusions: In terms of economic variables, the non-moderation of GDP per capita and the moderation of the GINI index stand out, demonstrating that countries must move toward policies that promote the reconstruction of more resilient and inclusive societies. Full article

Background/Objectives: This narrative review examines resilience and social reconstruction strategies implemented during the 1742–1743 plague along the Royal Road between Buenos Aires and Lima. The study explores how colonial authorities managed the epidemic and its long-term effects, providing insights into historical crisis management and public health governance. Methods: A systematic analysis of primary and secondary historical records was conducted to identify public health measures, such as quarantines, hospital construction, and administrative reforms. Sources were retrieved from archives and databases, focusing on resilience strategies and institutional responses to the epidemic. Results: The findings highlight key public health interventions designed to contain the epidemic and mitigate its impacts. These included the establishment of quarantines, the construction of temporary hospitals, and administrative adaptations. Religious practices, such as novenas and community prayers, complemented institutional responses. The study underscores the role of colonial governance in adapting under epidemic pressures, illustrating an emergent institutional resilience. Conclusions: The 1742–1743 plague along the Royal Road serves as a case study for understanding the intersection of health crises and institutional adaptability. The review emphasizes the importance of coordinated public health measures and governance in addressing pandemics, offering lessons on resilience and social reconstruction applicable to contemporary health crises. This historical perspective enriches current discussions on crisis management and public health policy. Full article

Quarantine policies during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic prolonged time spent at home, leading to an unintended occurrence of sick building syndrome (SBS) symptoms. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of SBS symptoms among residents in Suzhou, China, during the COVID-19 pandemic. A questionnaire survey was conducted online from February to May 2022. A total of 442 adults were included in this study. The prevalence of SBS symptoms was much higher during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the proportions of general, mucosal, and skin symptoms were 59.3%, 45.5% and 49.1%, respectively. The influences of building characteristics, occupant lifestyle, indoor environment and perception of indoor environment were analysed using a multivariate logistic regression model. Neighbourhood pollutant sources, older residences, non-ownership and humidity indicators were significant risk factors for SBS symptoms. Frequent use of air fresheners was significantly associated with general (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 4.9, 95% confidence interval (CI: 2.4–10.0), mucosal (AOR: 5.3, 95% CI: 2.4–11.5), and skin symptoms (AOR: 4.6, 95% CI: 1.6–13.1), while the use of disinfectants was significantly correlated with skin symptoms (AOR: 4.0, 95% CI: 1.5–10.7). Residents’ perception of an uncomfortable indoor environment was a significant predictor of general (AOR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.2–4.0) and mucosal symptoms (AOR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.6–6.0). The use of air cleaners can reduce the prevalence of general symptoms. An important finding of this study is that the psychological impact of staying at home for a long time was associated with general symptoms (AOR: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1–1.7), which means that attention should also be paid to the mental health of residents during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the quarantine period has now ended, our results can still serve as a reference for the impact of the indoor environment on the health of people with SBS, especially for those who stay at home for a long time, such as the elderly. Full article

The Asiatic rhinoceros beetle, Oryctes rhinoceros (Linnaeus, 1758) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), is a destructive invasive species that poses a serious threat to palms, oil palms, and other plants. Defining a suitable area for the distribution of O. rhinoceros is essential for the development of appropriate policies and preventive measures. In this work, the MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential geographic distribution of O. rhinoceros in the world based on occurrence data and related environmental variables and to speculate on the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of O. rhinoceros. The results showed that the suitable areas of O. rhinoceros beetle were mainly distributed in 30° N–30° S, and the highly suitable areas were concentrated in South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern Oceania. The key environmental variables that determine the distribution location of O. rhinoceros are Precipitation of Wettest Month (bio13), Temperature of July (tmin7), Minimum Temperature of November (tmin11), and Precipitation of September (prec9). The prediction results of the MaxEnt model can reflect the global distribution of O. rhinoceros. This study can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of O. rhinoceros and the development of relevant quarantine measures. Full article

The epidemic outbreaks of the last two decades have led governments to rely more on computational tools for establishing protection policies. Computational approaches to modeling epidemics traditionally rely on compartmental models, network models, or agent-based models (ABMs); however, each approach has its limitations, ranging from reduced realism to lack of tractability. Furthermore, the recent literature emphasizes the importance of points of interest (POIs) as sources of population mixing and potential outbreak hotspots. In response, this study proposes a novel urban spatial ABM validated using our augmented SICARQD epidemic model. To replicate daily activities more accurately, the urban area is divided into a matrix of points of interest (POIs) with agents that have unique paths that only permit infectious transmission within POIs. Our results provide a qualitative assessment of how urban characteristics and individual mobility patterns impact the infected population during an outbreak. That is, we study how population density, the total number of POIs (where the population concentrates), the average number of POIs visited by an agent, the maximum travel distance from the home location, and the quarantine ratio impact the dynamics of an outbreak. Our ABM simulation framework offers a valuable tool for investigating and controlling infectious disease outbreaks in urban environments with direct applicability to global policy makers. Full article

Background: During 2020 and 2021, over 50.2 million individuals were forced to leave their homes to escape the impacts of climate-related disasters, unable to practice social isolation or self-quarantine. A considerable proportion of them reside in densely populated areas with a lack of basic services such as water and sanitation and limited access to essential healthcare. This study aimed to estimate the internal displacements during 2020 and 2021 due to climate-related events, and review the evidence for proposing policy recommendations. Methods: Data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre were used for assessing internal displacement by disasters during 2020 and 2021. In addition, the authors conducted a bibliographic review to analyse the responses to internal displacements in climate-related disasters. Results: There were 883 severe storms and 1567 flood events resulting in 50.2 million internal displacements globally. Through the documents reviewed, the legal framework, the vulnerabilities and current challenges of internally displaced persons, and the response policy recommendations were analysed. Conclusions: The increased awareness of displacement and migration, particularly driven by climate-related factors, aligns with international agreements emphasising coordinated action. This recognition becomes even more critical in the context of the convergence of climate-related displacements and the potential for future pandemics. Full article

Facing the threat of SARS-CoV-2, several countries implemented protective measures to annihilate the waves of the pandemic. Apart from quarantine, social distancing, frequent disinfection, and the use of a face mask, vaccination against COVID-19 soon became available. The measures taken in the workplace to inhibit the spread of the virus were important, as some controversial policies emerged regarding the vaccination status of employees. The “health pass” changed the workplace environment immensely, as in many job sectors vaccination became mandatory. Unvaccinated employees were required to undergo specific COVID-19 tests to access their workplace, while other specialized workers such as health workers were removed from their work altogether. Such measures would be justified if it was certain that vaccinated people cannot transmit the virus, but over the course of years this hypothesis seems to have faded. The main aim of this study is the confirmation (or the non-validation) of this hypothesis and of the specific applied measures through the elaboration and statistical analysis of vaccination data from 35 countries in relation to their daily announced infections over the time frame from the forty-fourth week of 2021 to the fourth week of 2022. This is examined from an occupational safety and health (OSH) perspective (taking into account the three pillars of sustainability) concerning risk management and safety assessment at the workplaces of sustainable engineering systems (SES). The findings imply that this hypothesis is contestable. Therefore, it is doubtful whether workplace segregation measures were socially and economically sustainable. It is deduced that (i) the complete freedom of vaccinated employees was a situation which intensified occupational risk, degraded the safety level at the workplaces of sustainable engineering systems, and increased the OSH risk management difficulties, and, on the other hand, (ii) the financial burden of mandatory unemployment and frequent testing was not justified and economically sustainable for the unvaccinated individuals in the middle of a worldwide economic crisis. Full article