Search Results (1,181)

The efficiency of airport resource allocation is improved through the establishment of a scientific multi-granularity configuration scheme for flight slot coordination parameters. In this study, a collaborative configuration method for hourly and 15 min coordination parameters is proposed, with Beijing Capital International Airport serving as a case study. Short-term traffic clusters are frequently omitted by traditional hourly parameters, thereby leading to sudden delay surges. First, local delays were extracted from March 2024 Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) trajectory data. Subsequently, a delay prediction model was constructed through the integration of a non-stationary queuing model and a gradient boosting regression tree. Second, simulated timetables were generated via a Monte Carlo method under various parameter combinations. With a constant daily flight volume utilized as the experimental baseline, a mapping relationship was established between parameter combinations and expected local delays. Finally, feasible delay regions were delineated and interpretable configuration rules were extracted via a decision tree to maximize schedule flexibility. It was indicated by the results that at an hourly parameter of 70 flights, the target delay is maintained below 8 min by tightening the 15 min parameter to 19 flights. The findings suggest that average load is controlled by hourly parameters, while traffic clustering in high-load scenarios is effectively suppressed by 15 min parameters. A quantitative reference is provided by this method for the configuration of multi-granularity time parameters at hub airports. Full article

We examine the estimation of the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence and the use of the goodness-of-fit test for multivariate normality. Our starting point is the maximum entropy principle for Shannon entropy: among all distributions with a fixed mean vector and covariance matrix, the multivariate Gaussian distributions uniquely maximize entropy. As a result, the KL divergence from a moment-matched Gaussian distribution to an unknown density can then be written as the entropy difference, which is a suitable information-theoretic measure of divergence from the Gaussian distribution. To estimate, we use k-nearest neighbor (kNN) estimators based on Shannon entropy and KL divergence derived from the Kozachenko–Leonenko approach and subsequent improvements, along with the consistency and $L^2$-convergence results established for these estimators. Motivated by previous entropy-based goodness-of-fit ideas developed for Rényi-type functionals for generalized Gaussian and Student-type models, we describe a KL-based test statistic as being the difference between the entropy of a Gaussian model fitted to the sample mean and covariance and the KL divergence between the unknown entropy and the kNN estimate. The statistic converges to zero for multivariate normality and converges to a strictly positive bound with non-Gaussian alternatives. The results of Monte Carlo simulations conducted across various dimensions and sample sizes indicate that the proposed method provides accurate Type I error control among the alternatives considered and demonstrates promising empirical power. Full article

Accurate and reliable localization is a fundamental requirement for autonomous mobile robots operating in structured indoor environments. Adaptive Monte Carlo Localization (AMCL), widely used due to its probabilistic flexibility, suffers from performance degradation in challenging situations such as low-motion, sensor degradation, symmetry ambiguity, and abrupt position changes (kidnapped robot). This study proposes the Confidence-Gated Virtual Scan Motion AMCL (CG-VSM-AMCL) approach, which extends the standard AMCL structure with a selective and confidence-based posterior enhancement mechanism to overcome these limitations. The proposed method integrates beam partitioning, cluster-based dominance analysis, observability-aware gating, and recovery-driven adaptive particle injection components within a holistic architecture. The method was evaluated on a structured department map under seven representative scenarios: cold-start, low-motion, kidnapped robot recovery, odometry bias, scan dropout, world–model mismatch, and symmetry ambiguity. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach systematically reduces localization error, false-lock rate, and convergence time compared to basic AMCL variants, and improves stability under challenging conditions. The significant improvements achieved, particularly in low-motion and symmetry-containing environments, reveal that selectively activated correction strategies can substantially increase localization robustness without altering the fundamental probabilistic structure of AMCL. Full article

High-dimensional covariance estimation remains a fundamental challenge when the number of variables (p) substantially exceeds the sample size (n). In such settings, the sample covariance matrix is unstable, singular, and heavily contaminated by estimation noise. Although shrinkage estimators improve stability and thresholding methods promote sparsity, each approach alone may introduce bias or lose structural information. This study proposes a Noise-Adjusted Shrinkage Covariance (NASC) framework as a post-processing enhancement strategy for shrinkage-based covariance estimators. The framework first stabilizes the covariance structure through shrinkage toward a structured target, then suppresses noise-induced small covariance entries via thresholding, and finally applies a stabilization step to ensure positive definiteness of the resulting estimator. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate the effects of the shrinkage and thresholding parameters, and the Monte Carlo simulations were subsequently performed using the best-performing parameter configuration. The simulation results showed that shrinkage alone may not sufficiently suppress entrywise noise, whereas NASC-adjusted estimators improved upon their corresponding shrinkage baselines in many scenarios, with the strongest gains observed for sparse covariance structures and for shrinkage estimators that do not explicitly suppress entrywise estimation noise. Improvements were more limited for highly optimized shrinkage estimators. Real-data analyses were conducted on the SRBCT and colon cancer benchmark datasets. On the SRBCT dataset, numerical stability and positive-definiteness properties were examined, while LOOCV-LDA classification performance without prior feature selection or dimensionality reduction was evaluated on the colon cancer dataset. The results suggest that NASC provides a computationally simple and numerically stable extension to classical shrinkage covariance estimation methods for high-dimensions. Full article

One of the most widely used regression models for count data is the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson regression model (CMPRM), which often provides a better fit for over- and underdispersed count data than traditional models, such as Poisson regression and negative binomial regression. Parameter estimation in the CMPRM is typically performed using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. However, when explanatory variables are highly correlated, a phenomenon known as multicollinearity arises, posing a significant challenge to the analysis. Multicollinearity makes it difficult to identify the individual effects of explanatory variables, leading to inflated variances and larger standard errors of the MLEs. To address the issue of multicollinearity, this paper introduces a new class of Liu-type estimators within the CMPRM. The proposed estimators aim to improve the estimation accuracy and reliability of the CMPRM compared with existing biased estimation methods. The efficiency of the proposed estimator is evaluated through theoretical comparisons and Monte Carlo simulation experiments conducted under various conditions. Furthermore, two real-data applications are presented to demonstrate the practical usefulness of the proposed estimation method. The results from the theoretical analysis, simulation study, and empirical applications indicate that the proposed estimators outperform existing methods in terms of achieving more accurate and reliable estimates. Full article

The NaI(TI) detector is highly favored in gamma radiation detection and widely applied in fields such as environmental radiation monitoring, nuclear medicine, and laboratory gamma-ray spectroscopy. Its detection performance determines the results of quantitative gamma-ray detection, making it a crucial indicator in detector design and development. This study employs the Monte Carlo method and utilizes TopMC 1.0 software to establish a NaI(TI) detector model. First, the effects of crystal size, ray energy, cladding thickness, and distance on the detector’s detection efficiency were investigated. Subsequently, the energy resolution and peak-to-total ratio of the detector were simulated and calculated, with comparisons made to experimental values. The results indicate that all three detection efficiencies of the NaI(TI) detector are positively correlated with crystal size and exhibit an initial increase followed by a decrease with rising gamma-ray energy. Both the absolute detection efficiency and full-energy peak detection efficiency first increase and then decrease with increasing cladding thickness, while showing a negative correlation with detection distance. The intrinsic detection efficiency is almost unaffected by cladding thickness and initially rises before declining with increasing detection distance. The simulated values of energy resolution closely match experimental values, improving with higher gamma-ray energy. The deviation between simulated and experimental values for different source peak-to-total ratios remains within 6.25%, verifying the model’s reliability and the accuracy of simulation data. These findings provide valuable references and guidance for optimizing detection performance, conducting source-free efficiency calibration, and structural design of NaI(TI) detectors. Full article

This article presents a comprehensive inferential and applied investigation of the newly reparameterized Z-Weibull (ZW) distribution, a flexible Weibull-type lifetime model capable of accommodating both bounded and unbounded support regimes as well as a wide variety of hazard rate shapes. Unified frequentist and Bayesian inference procedures are developed for complete and censored samples using maximum likelihood, maximum product spacing, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Theoretical properties of the estimators and their associated interval estimates are established, while extensive Monte Carlo simulations assess their finite-sample performance under diverse parameter configurations and censoring schemes. The results indicate that Bayesian spacing-based procedures generally provide more accurate estimation, lower bias, and improved interval performance than competing classical methods. Applications to biomedical survival and climatological datasets, together with comparisons against several Weibull-type and exponential-based competitors, demonstrate the superior flexibility and goodness-of-fit of the ZW model. These findings highlight the practical value of the reparameterized ZW distribution as a unified and effective tool for modeling complex lifetime and reliability data arising in survival, environmental, and engineering studies. Full article

Introduction: Pedestrians lying on the road—collapsed through medical emergency, intoxication, or displacement following a prior collision—represent a disproportionately lethal and underaddressed category in road traffic safety. Forensic database analyses derived from Japan’s national police records document a fatality rate of 33.0% for collisions involving pedestrians lying on the road, more than double the rate for upright pedestrian collisions. Standard Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) yield a True Positive Rate (TPR) of only 21.4% for detecting pedestrians lying on the road under night conditions—a classification gap of 73.3 percentage points. Methods: In simulation trials, we evaluated the Advanced Falling Object Detection System (AFODS—where “falling object” denotes the low-profile human form at road level, distinguishing the prone pedestrian from the upright postures addressed by conventional ADAS) on a composite dataset of 3200 annotated fall events and 12,000 negative samples (training/validation), with 320 independent controlled simulation trials used for performance evaluation, spanning real-world, forensic-reconstruction, and Total Human Body Model for Safety (THUMS)-validated synthetic scenarios. No physical prototype has been evaluated; all performance data are derived from simulation, and 37.5% of positive samples are synthetically generated. These simulation conditions represent a first feasibility demonstration pending real-world hardware validation. This paper introduces three original contributions absent from prior work: a three-stage quantitative injury-risk model, a formal ISO 26262 Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (HARA), and a medicolegal SHAP interpretability framework. The injury-risk model translated detection latency via impact velocity to Head Injury Criterion (HIC) and estimated fatal injury probability (AIS ≥ 5); these model outputs should be interpreted as exploratory estimates pending ATD validation. Reporting follows principles consistent with the TRIPOD statement. Results: Under clear daytime conditions, AFODS demonstrated a TPR of 98.2% (95% CI: 97.4–98.8%) in simulation, decreasing to 95.6% under night dry-road conditions and 89.4% under night rain. The system achieved an AUC of 0.981 and a mean end-to-end latency of 46.5 ms, representing a 76.8 percentage-point improvement in simulation over the monocular RGB baseline (p < 0.001). The injury-risk model projects a reduction in estimated fatal head injury probability from 66.2% (Monte Carlo mean) (no detection, 50 km/h full-speed impact) to 0.7% under AFODS worst-case night/rain conditions, and to ≈0% under clear daytime simulation conditions. Conclusions: A 73.3 percentage-point classification gap places pedestrians lying on the road outside the effective detection envelope of current ADAS, compounded by the systematic exclusion of non-upright postures from regulatory test protocols and benchmark datasets. AFODS supports proof-of-concept feasibility under simulation conditions. Three translational steps are required: prototype validation on real-world hardware using instrumented Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs); prone-posture biomechanical injury modelling using HIC and BrIC criteria; and regulatory extension of pedestrian AEB test standards to non-upright scenarios. Full article

Near-fault pulse-like ground motions (NFPLGMs) impose concentrated energy demands that can severely damage bridges, yet their scarcity and the influence of structural parameter uncertainties are often neglected in seismic fragility assessments. This study proposed a synthesis method for NFPLGMs by superposing low-frequency pulse components (extracted via the Gabor wavelet transform and low-pass filtering) with high-frequency stochastic components based on an evolutionary power spectrum. A three-span reinforced concrete bridge was modeled in OpenSeesPy, and Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA), together with a quadratic response surface model, were used to plot seismic fragility curves. The damping ratio (ξ), elastic modulus of steel reinforcement (E_s), yield strength of steel reinforcement (f_y), diameter of longitudinal reinforcement (D), and peak ground acceleration (PGA) were treated as random variables. Sensitivity indices were computed using Monte Carlo sampling (n = 10,000). Results show that ξ most strongly affects the displacement ductility ratio of the bridge pier (u_d) (variation of up to 32.6%), while E_s dominates the shear deformation of the bridge bearing (d) (variation of up to 43.8%). Neglecting structural parameter uncertainties overestimates median PGA thresholds (m_R) for different damage states by 1.5%–36.1%, and replacing NFPLGMs with ordinary ground motions overestimates seismic capacity by 1.7%–36.6%. The bridge bearing is consistently more vulnerable than the pier, with a collapse probability of 0.9566 at PGA = 1.0 g. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating both NFPLGM characteristics and structural parameter uncertainties into bridge seismic fragility assessment. On the other hand, when seismic retrofitting of bridges is carried out using coating materials, priority should be given to more vulnerable components, such as bridge bearings, to improve the utilization efficiency of limited resources. Full article

Nonparametric inference for residual-life functionals is a fundamental problem in mathematical statistics, reliability theory, and survival analysis, particularly in studies with limited sample sizes where empirical plug-in estimators may exhibit substantial sampling variability. In comparative lifetime analysis, additional qualitative information is often available regarding the relative behavior of two populations; however, such information is frequently too weak to justify classical stochastic dominance assumptions. Stochastic precedence provides a natural and interpretable framework for representing this partial ordering through a pairwise probabilistic constraint. This paper develops a constraint-adjusted nonparametric inference framework for estimating the mean residual life (MRL) and quantile residual life (QRL) functions under stochastic precedence information. The proposed approach replaces the ordinary empirical distribution function in standard residual-life plug-in estimators with a constraint-adjusted empirical distribution function that enforces the stochastic precedence relation at the sample level. The adjustment is governed by a data-driven scaling factor and is asymptotically negligible, thereby preserving the large-sample behavior of the ordinary empirical estimators while incorporating meaningful structural information in finite samples. Strong consistency of the proposed MRL and QRL estimators was established under mild regularity conditions. A Monte Carlo study based on Weibull and gamma lifetime models demonstrates that in the simulation settings considered, the proposed estimators provide improved finite-sample stability and generally achieve smaller mean squared errors than their ordinary empirical counterparts, especially for small and moderate sample sizes. The methodology is further illustrated using survival data from patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx, highlighting its practical relevance in biomedical survival analysis. The proposed method offers a flexible, interpretable, and computationally simple framework for nonparametric inference with structured lifetime data under weak stochastic ordering information. Full article

A recent generalized Bilal (G-Bilal) model demonstrates remarkable flexibility in capturing a wide spectrum of failure behaviors, including monotonic and non-monotonic (upside-down bathtub-shaped) hazard patterns, outperforming several existing models such as the Weibull, gamma, and exponential families. This paper develops several inferential frameworks for different G-Bilal parameters of life using samples gathered by improved Type-II adaptive progressive censoring. This enhanced design ensures optimal control of test duration while maintaining high inferential precision. Expressions for the model parameters, reliability, and hazard rate functions are derived, followed by the development of maximum likelihood (ML) and maximum product of spacing (MPS) estimators with their asymptotic confidence intervals using the observed Fisher information with the delta approach. Furthermore, Bayesian estimators and two associated credible intervals are proposed under independent gamma priors and computed through Markov iterations, with both ML and MPS posteriors considered. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments confirm the consistency, robustness, and precision of the proposed estimators, with Bayesian spacing-based methods exhibiting superior accuracy and coverage. The model’s practical potential is further verified through two real applications: one involving mechanical system lifetimes and another analyzing health insurance premium data, representing physical and actuarial domains, respectively. Using the introduced censoring, the proposed G-Bilal model outperforms all competing models in terms of goodness-of-fit and reliability estimates in both cases. The results underscore the G-Bilal model’s adaptability, computational stability, and empirical superiority, establishing it as a powerful tool for modern reliability and actuarial risk assessments. Full article

Multicollinearity reduces the reliability of ordinary least squares by increasing variances and creating unstable estimates. This issue has led to biased and penalized regression methods like ridge-, Liu- and Stein-type estimators. Here, we build existing ridge-type approaches by introducing improved ridge and Liu-type estimators, along with robust variants to handle outliers. We investigate their theoretical properties regarding bias, variance, and mean squared error. We also evaluate their performance through Monte Carlo simulations with different levels of multicollinearity and data contamination. By using several evaluation criteria, including mean squared error, akaike information criterion, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error, along with an average-rank comparison framework applied here for the first time, we further validate our results with two health-related datasets. The findings show that the strong estimators provide more stable estimates and improved predictive performance, particularly when dealing with severe multicollinearity and outliers. Full article

Against the background of China’s dual carbon goals, high-renewable-power systems suffer severe resilience threats from destructive ice disasters, and existing recovery approaches fail to fully exploit multi-type flexible resources with unsatisfying computational efficiency. Targeting this gap, this work establishes a resilience enhancement framework for ice-affected power grids. This model quantifies line failure probability considering time-varying ice thickness and wind load, generates representative fault scenarios via sequential Monte Carlo and K-means clustering, and innovatively incorporates mobile energy storage systems (MESSs) and low-temperature-corrected PEM electrolyzers into coordinated post-fault dispatch; an improved parrot optimization (PO) algorithm with Chebyshev chaos, random mutation and adaptive t-distribution is designed to boost solving efficiency. Tested on the IEEE 39-bus system, the proposed method reduces average load shedding to 3.7% and raises renewable accommodation to 95.6%, outperforming fixed energy storage and literature-based strategies by cutting load curtailment by 45.6% and 30.2% respectively, while multi-condition sensitivity analyses validate its stable applicability under varying disaster intensity and renewable penetration. This coordinated scheduling strategy supplies feasible technical support for practical anti-icing resilience promotion of new-type power grids. Full article

Objectives: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) remains one of the most prevalent neurodegenerative conditions among older adults, underscoring the urgent need for accurate and ethically grounded early detection methods. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, particularly machine learning and deep learning models, show promise in leveraging neuroimaging biomarkers to support early diagnosis. However, significant challenges persist regarding model explainability, accountability, and responsible implementation in real-world healthcare settings. This study presents a generalized Responsible AI (RAI) framework composed of four core components—explainability, fairness, predictive performance, and uncertainty quantification—to address these challenges. Method: Using the TADPOLE neuroimaging dataset, we implemented a Feedforward Neural Network (FNN) within a unified Responsible AI (RAI) framework integrating explainability, fairness, predictive performance, and uncertainty quantification. Although Random Forest achieved slightly higher predictive accuracy (95%), the FNN was selected as the primary model because it better supports end-to-end uncertainty estimation through Monte Carlo Dropout, enabling more reliable clinical decision support. Results: The proposed framework demonstrated strong predictive performance (92% accuracy), improved fairness reflected by an equalized odds difference of 0.124, and progressively lower predictive entropy across training iterations, indicating enhanced confidence in predictions. The framework further enabled model transparency through explainability analyses and supported the identification of low-confidence predictions for potential clinical review. Conclusions: Our findings highlight not only the feasibility of integrating RAI principles into AD prediction pipelines but also the persistent challenges of applying such frameworks to real-world clinical data. This work contributes practical insights toward operationalizing Responsible AI in healthcare contexts. Full article

This study uses a comprehensive simulation to investigate the performance of bootstrap confidence intervals for the Pearson correlation coefficient and Xi correlation coefficient (XICOR). Different distributional settings (normal, lognormal, uniform, and $t\left(3\right)$), sample sizes ($n = 10, 30, 100, 1000$), and Gaussian copula dependence levels (${\rho }_0$ = 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.8) were considered. For each scenario, the true population Pearson and XICOR values were separately estimated via a large-sample Monte Carlo reference. The coverage probability (CP), mean confidence interval width (MCIW) and absolute bias detection (BD) were used to evaluate the percentile, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap methods. The results showed that bootstrap confidence intervals based on the Pearson correlation coefficient generally achieve coverage probabilities close to the nominal level across most scenarios, with some degradation observed under heavy-tailed distributions at large sample sizes. By contrast, confidence intervals based on XICOR showed a significant and systematic undercoverage problem across most sample sizes, especially for n ≥ 30, which worsened as sample size increased. Although XICOR tends to produce narrower intervals, these intervals were associated with low coverage and increased variability, indicating a false precision. The BCa method did not meaningfully improve XICOR’s coverage performance. In conclusion, reducing bias alone is insufficient for reliable inference when dealing with non-smooth dependence measures. Classical bootstrap methods may be inappropriate for XICOR since they do not provide accurate quantification of uncertainty. Full article