Search Results (70)

This study examines the impact of personal remittances on housing prices in European Union (EU) countries, while also accounting for a broader set of macroeconomic, demographic, and structural variables. Using annual data for 27 EU countries from 2007 to 2022, we employ a comprehensive panel econometric approach, including cross-sectional dependence tests, second-generation unit root tests, pooled mean group–autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) estimation, and panel causality tests, to capture both short- and long-term dynamics. Our findings confirm that remittances significantly and positively influence long-term housing price levels, underscoring their relevance as a demand-side driver. Other key variables such as net migration, GDP, travel credit to GDP, economic freedom, and real effective exchange rates also contribute to housing price movements, while supply-side indicators, including production in construction and building permits, exert moderating effects. Moreover, real interest rates are shown to have a significant long-term negative effect on property prices. The analysis reveals key causal links from remittances, FDI, and net migration to housing prices, highlighting their structural and predictive roles. Bidirectional causality between economic freedom, housing output, and prices indicates reinforcing feedback effects. These findings position remittances as both a development tool and a key indicator of real estate dynamics. The study highlights complex interactions between international financial flows, demographic pressures, and domestic economic conditions and the need for policymakers to consider remittances and migrant investments in real estate strategies. These findings offer important implications for policymakers seeking to balance housing affordability, investment, and economic resilience in the EU context and key insights into the complexity of economic factors and real estate prices. Importantly, the analysis identifies several causal relationships, notably from remittances, FDI, and net migration toward housing prices, underscoring their predictive and structural importance. Bidirectional causality between economic freedom and house prices, as well as between housing output and pricing, reflects feedback mechanisms that further reinforce market dynamics. These results position remittances not only as a developmental instrument but also as a key signal for real estate market performance in recipient economies. Full article

Housing prices have recently risen sharply in many countries, primarily linked to the global credit cycle. Although various factors play a role, the ability of developing countries to navigate this cycle and maintain autonomous monetary policies is crucial. This paper introduces a dynamic macroeconomic model featuring a housing production sector within an imperfect banking framework. It captures key housing and economic dynamics in advanced and emerging economies. The analysis shows domestic liquidity policies, such as bank capital requirements, reserve ratios, and currency devaluation, can stabilize investment and production. However, their effectiveness depends on foreign interest rates and liquidity. Stabilizing housing prices and risk-free bonds is more effective in high-interest environments, while foreign liquidity shocks have asymmetric impacts. They can boost or lower the effectiveness of domestic policy, depending on the country’s level of financial development. These findings have several policy implications. For example, foreign capital controls would be adequate in the short term but not in the long term. Instead, governments would try to promote the development of local financial markets. Controlling debt should be a target for macroprudential policy as well as promoting saving instruments other than real estate, especially during low interest rates. Full article

As damage from natural hazards has increased globally, governments and aid agencies must have practical tools for post-disaster livelihood recovery to foster self-sufficiency among affected populations. This study presents a framework of essential components for livelihood recovery, utilising a comparative case study with interviews from communities impacted by major earthquakes in Lushan, China, and Christchurch and Kaikōura, New Zealand. Communities in both countries highly value housing, employment, well-being, and external assistance for livelihood recovery after disasters. However, people in China credit housing functionality and income resources more, while New Zealand people rely more on commercial insurance for their recovery. The insights from this comparative study can help governments and non-governmental organisations strengthen livelihood recovery efforts and enhance resilience to future disasters. Full article

In this study, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing housing prices in Morocco. Bayesian estimation over the period 2007Q2–2017Q2 of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model allowed us to reveal a significant impact of the increase in policy interest rates on the prices of residential goods. Indeed, the implementation of a restrictive monetary policy in Morocco will drive the prices of this type of asset downward. Despite this empirical finding, the historical decomposition of shocks impacting the inflation of residential property prices shows that interest rates explain only a small portion of the variations in housing prices in this country. Our results also indicate that an increase in the share of borrowers extends the time required for economic and financial variables to return to their equilibrium state. This is a sign of the potential dangers of fueling housing bubbles through credit booms. Full article

A significant share of many commercial banks’ portfolios consists of residential mortgage loans provided to individuals and families. This paper examines the default and rational prepayment risk of single-borrower (residential) mortgage loans based on an option pricing model that captures the skewness and kurtosis of the house prices returns’ distribution via the shifted lognormal distribution. Equilibrium option-adjusted credit spreads are obtained from the implementation of the model under plausible values of the relevant parameters. The methodology involves numerical experiments, using a shifted binomial tree model by Haathela and Camara and Chung, to evaluate the effects of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, asset volatility, interest rates, and recovery costs on mortgage valuation. Findings indicate prepayment risk significantly influences loan value, as it limits upside potential, while LTV and volatility directly impact default risk. The shifting parameter (θ) in the asset distribution proves essential for accurate risk assessment. Conclusions emphasize the need for mortgage underwriting to consider specific asset characteristics, optimal loan structures, and prevailing risk-free rates to avoid underestimating risk. This model can aid in the more robust pricing and management of mortgage portfolios, especially relevant in regions with substantial mortgage-backed exposure, such as the European banking system. Full article

While the literature has investigated the associations between urban environments and COVID-19 infection, most studies primarily focused on urban density factors and early outbreaks, often reporting mixed results. We examined how diverse urban factors impact COVID-19 cases across 229 administrative districts in South Korea during Pre-Omicron and Post-Omicron periods. Real-time big data (Wi-Fi, GPS, and credit card transactions) were integrated to capture dynamic mobility and economic activities. Using negative binomial regression and random forest modeling, we analyzed urban factors within the D-variable framework: density (e.g., housing density), diversity (e.g., land-use mix), design (e.g., street connectivity), and destination accessibility (e.g., cultural and community facilities). The results revealed the consistent significance of density and destination-related factors across analytic approaches and transmission phases, but specific factors of significance varied over time. Residential and population densities were more related in the early phase, while employment levels and cultural and community facilities became more relevant in the later phase. Traffic volume and local consumption appeared important, though their significance is not consistent across the models. Our findings highlight the need for adaptive urban planning strategies and public health policies that consider both static and dynamic urban factors to minimize disease risks while sustaining urban vitality and health in the evolving pandemic. Full article

Countries such as advanced systemic economies (ASEs) and systemic middle-income countries (SMICs), considering macroprudential policy coordination, must ensure that their financial cycles are sufficiently synchronized. However, differences in the features and significance of financial cycles between ASEs and SMICs pose challenges in determining the extent of their synchronization. Accordingly, this study assesses whether a common financial cycle exists between these types of economies. The point of departure for this analysis is to examine the characteristics of the common financial cycle. To this end, this study employs data on capital flows, credit, house prices, share prices, and policy rates, utilizing the Markov switching dynamic regression model and the dynamic factor model to identify and analyze the cycle. The findings reveal strong evidence of a significant financial cycle, which explains 83% of the total variation across countries. This cycle is characterized by longer durations compared to domestic financial cycles and occurs less frequently than domestic cycles. Moreover, it exhibits high persistence in its contractionary and expansionary phases, with greater volatility in the contractionary phase. Based on these findings, it is recommended that ASEs and SMICs consider establishing a supranational prudential authority to coordinate and oversee macroprudential policy on behalf of the majority. Such an entity should play a proactive role, particularly during contractionary phases, to mitigate systemic risks and enhance financial stability across these interconnected economies. Full article

Smallholder vegetable farmers grow diverse crops for family use and surplus sales. These farming activities contribute to enhancing local food security and the economy, but the farmers face challenges like limited resources and climate vulnerability. These smallholder farmers are more susceptible to climate variability and therefore need effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the challenges. This study sought to determine the factors that influence the choice and level of adaptation strategies among smallholder vegetable farmers in KwaZulu Natal Province. Primary data utilized in this study were obtained from 200 participants that were selected through random sampling. The descriptive results indicated that the majority of the farmers experienced climate variability and employed carbon and water-smart agricultural practices. The study employed the Multivariate Probit Model and Count Data Model/GLM Correlation Test to analyze the adaptation strategies and the level of their implementation by the selected vegetable farmers. The first hurdle of the probit model results showed that education level and land size positively and significantly influence smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies, while marital status, household size, income source, soil type, membership of the association, and supply chain involvement had a significant and negative effect on adoption of adaptation strategies. The results from the second hurdle showed that household size, the total size of land used for vegetable production, sandy, silt, and loam soil had a significant and negative effect on the level of adaptation strategy used, whilst the total size of land owned had a positive and significant impact on the level of adaptation strategy used by the smallholder vegetable farmers. The study concludes that education level and total land size are associated with improved farmers’ climate variability adaptative capacity. The vegetable farmers’ ability to adapt to climate variability challenges was negatively influenced by factors like marital status, household size, and soil type negatively impacted these strategies. The study recommends that the government considerably supports the Climate Smart Agriculture initiatives, such as alternatives like hot houses, training, credit access, and sustainable practices to enhance farmers’ resilience and national food security. These may include but are not limited to alternatives like hot houses, as well as addressing barriers through training, credit access, and sustainable practices to enhance farmers’ resilience and national food security. Full article

Living in deprived neighborhoods not only reflects a lack of social networks, role models, and safety, but also indicates limited access to local establishments that provide daily necessities—all of which are crucial for residents’ social mobility. The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program—the most influential place-based housing assistance initiative in the United States (U.S.)—is one such program that strives to achieve this challenging goal. However, studies have shown that LIHTC units are often constructed in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods. Therefore, this study investigates the spillover effects of LIHTC developments on neighborhood resource availability that is essential not only for immediate well-being but also for fostering long-term social mobility. This study employed the propensity score method, the inverse probability treatment weight, and weighted linear regression to address the selection bias problem of developers’ site decision. This study finds that a neighborhood that received LIHTC development between 2010 and 2015 experienced a greater increase in the number of employees in grocery stores, healthcare providers, job-training centers, libraries, pharmacies, and recreational centers from 2010 to 2016 than neighborhoods without LIHTC developments during the same time. The significance of this study lies in its analysis of the effects of LIHTC projects on physical facilities while accounting for self-selection bias. Full article

In Latin America, the energy crisis has worsened due to the dependence on energy services and fossil fuel imports from highly industrialized countries at prices established by the international market; this is particularly relevant to the construction industry, which presents a significant deficit in optimal energy consumption. Hence, some governments have established public policies to maximize the efficiency of these services and, at the same time, minimize the carbon footprint. In this research study, we reviewed the public policies, strategies, and incentives for energy efficiency (EE) implementation in the residential sector established by the Mexican government. A scoping review methodology was chosen and implemented in the following steps: 1. Research inquiry identification. 2. Determination of the relevant literature and studies. 3. The literature selection. 4. Data graphing. 5. Results collection, overview, and submission. In this systematic review, we identified five mandatory standards (NOM-008-ENER-2001, NOM-009-ENER-2014, NOM-018-ENER-2011, NOM-020-ENER-2011, and NOM-024-ENER-2012), six optional standards, four strategies (Green Mortgage, Integral Sustainable Improvement in Existing Housing, ECOCASA, and NAMA), and three kinds of incentives (green bonds, credit and interest rates (Green Mortgage, FIDE, and Ecocasa), and taxes (Income Tax Reduction)). As a result of the implementation of the above, as of December 2020, NAMA financed 5106 developers of 38 projects in 15 states; contributed to a reduction of 126,779 tons of CO₂; and aided 19,913 people. From 2013 to December 2023, EcoCasa subsidized 71,440 households for a total of 224 projects in 25 states; contributed to a reduction of 2.6 million tons of CO₂; aided 285,760 Mexicans; and issued EcoCasa certificates for 3,473,556 m². The results of the EE indicators in residential buildings showed an increase in the housing unit number as well as an increase in household appliances, with those based on power consumption prevailing. The residential sector ranks third in power consumption in Mexico, consuming an estimated 790 pj, of which 76% corresponds to thermal energy and 24% to electric power. Among countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, Mexico has achieved an Energy Transition Index of 62%. Full article

This research study assesses the effectiveness of the Socio-Technical Assistance (STA) program when combined with owner-driven housing reconstruction on rural private housing recovery after Nepal’s 2015 earthquake, particularly regarding vulnerable households. Through a quantitative, 304-question survey, the study reveals that 96% of households credited STA activities for accelerating reconstruction, with 95% acknowledging its significance and 78% emphasizing its necessity. Notably, 89% expressed dependency on STA for reconstruction, and 85% believed it heightened disaster risk reduction awareness. In conclusion, the study establishes that STA activities significantly contributed to the successful reconstruction of houses for vulnerable households, addressing such critical aspects as financial support, technical assistance, housing accessibility, earthquake-resilient construction, improved livelihoods, and safety enhancements. The field study presents crucial recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of Socio-Technical Assistance (STA) activities in post-earthquake, rural private housing reconstruction. Emphasizing the need for tailored, demand-driven interventions, the study cautions against relying solely on an owner-driven reconstruction model, challenging the one-size-fits-all strategy. The study proposes integrating tailored interventions into overarching recovery strategies, advocating for coordinated efforts to enhance disaster risk reduction (DRR) awareness and to cultivate resilient communities in particularly vulnerable households as aligned with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 11, which focuses on sustainable cities and communities. This research aims to enhance the literature on post-disaster humanitarian shelter and settlement by emphasizing the significance of inclusive and comprehensive approaches to recovery and reconstruction. Full article

Scenario analysis is a comprehensive approach to assess the impact of climate-related transition risk on businesses. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores are popular tools with financial institutions (FI’s) for green-scoring practices and since they characterise a company’s performance from an ESG perspective, they have been criticised for enabling “greenwashing” when used within the context of climate risk. Commercially available ESG scores are also available for listed entities, while FI counterparties are often unlisted. This study develops a methodology for creating in-house environmental scores (E-scores), which are then used to effectively choose appropriate transition pathways to be used in company-specific forward-looking scenario analysis. Such scenario analysis can be used to forecast the company’s financial position, including the cost of its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and quantify the impact of transition climate risk on specified metrics. The choice of metrics depends on what the results of the analysis are used for. Two metrics are identified for being useful for risk management and credit decisions: future profitability and weighted average carbon intensity. Finally, the study demonstrates how this process can be implemented with a practical worked example, using only publicly available data. Full article

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) include sustainable cities and communities. The availability of housing for young people is a contemporary global problem, and the severity of housing problems for young people in many countries is widely discussed and raises important policy questions. Generation Z, described as digital, critical, adventurous, open-minded and, above all, mobile people, is now entering adulthood. The study attempted to identify the housing preferences of young people to determine whether they prefer renting a flat or owning one. Although generation Z differs from older generations in many respects, their perception of the housing issue does not differ significantly from the attitudes presented by older generations. The dominant model of the housing system in Poland, the non-commodified-familial model, which prefers ownership over renting, is also shared by the youngest generation. Hence, the conclusion addressed to the public authorities and the financing system is to enable the expansion of the credit offer supported by a long-term savings plan aimed at young people. Renting as an alternative way of securing housing needs is also perceived positively, with nearly 80% of respondents stating that they would be able to live in rented accommodation, mainly due to greater mobility, rising property prices and reluctance to take out a long-term loan. Hence, we suggest the need to support institutional renting along the lines of other countries with similar housing systems. Full article

Construction projects, especially those for commercial purposes, require thorough planning and control to ensure success within predetermined budgets and timelines. This research, conducted in Mashhad, Iran, employs the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and VIKOR methods to identify and rank factors influencing delays in high-rise projects. The study, based on a sample of 40 projects, emphasizes the comprehensive nature of our research method. The scale for features in project selection includes societal importance (with different applications including cultural hubs, affordable housing initiatives, and urban renewal for social equity), size (less and more than 20 units in residential projects), and diversity (mixed-use development, inclusive infrastructure, and cultural and recreational spaces), contributing to a comprehensive analysis of construction delays. Expert project managers and engineers provided insights through two questionnaires, and their responses underwent thorough analysis. Our findings not only underscore the significance of factors contributing to project success but also rank their impact on the likelihood of delays. The study reveals that the negative effects of these factors on cost, time, and project quality vary. Time emerges as the most influential parameter, with approximately six times more impact on cost and nine times more on quality. Contractor financial weakness, delays in allocating financial and credit resources, insufficient project resource allocation, contractor technical and executive weakness, and a lack of proper implementation and project control are identified as the most important factors contributing to delays. Full article

Recent research emphasizes the urgent need to improve affordable housing accessibility, safety, and quality while addressing poverty and economic mobility. However, there are a lack of comprehensive studies on US affordable housing construction. Our study focused on barriers to and enablers of affordable housing construction in Upstate New York through interviews with ten construction industry professionals. We identified obstacles like funding shortages, regulatory complexities, and administrative hurdles. Enablers included increased advocacy, strategic tax credit use, and reduced zoning restrictions. Although a housing supply–demand imbalance persists, emerging solutions and collaborative efforts signal a promising, equitable, and sustainable future. Full article