Search Results (111)

This study investigates economic decision-making behaviors among welfare recipients in Miami, Florida, by leveraging well-established experimental protocols: the Guessing Game, the Prudence Measurement Task, the Risk Aversion Task, and the Stag Hunt Game. For this purpose, our study defines financial decisions as the underlying individual preferences that serve as validated proxies for savings behavior, debt management, job-search intensity, and participation in cooperative finance. A central objective is to compare the behavior of welfare recipients to that of undergraduate students, a cohort typically used in experimental economics research. The analysis reveals significant differences between the two groups in strategic thinking and coordination, particularly across ethnic and gender lines. Non-Hispanic/Latino participants in Miami displayed significantly higher average guesses in the Guessing Game compared to their counterparts in Tucson, indicating potential discrepancies in the depth of strategic reasoning. Additionally, female participants in Tucson exhibited higher levels of coordination in the Stag Hunt Game compared to females in Miami, suggesting variance in cooperative behavior between these groups. Despite these findings, regression models demonstrate that location, gender, and ethnicity collectively account for only a small fraction of the observed variance, as evidenced by low R² values and substantial mean squared errors across all games. These results suggest that individual heterogeneity, rather than broad demographic variables, may be more influential in shaping economic decisions. This study underscores the complexity of generalizing findings from traditional student samples to more diverse populations, highlighting the need for further investigation into the socioeconomic factors that drive financial decision-making. Full article

Determining the optimal portfolio is important in the investment process because it includes the selection of appropriate fund allocation to manage financial risk effectively. Although risk cannot be entirely eliminated, it is managed through strategic allocation based on investor preferences. Therefore, this research aimed to use mathematical models, including the power utility function, the natural logarithm utility function, and a combination of both, to capture varying degrees of risk aversion. The optimal allocation was obtained by analytically maximizing the expected end-of-period wealth utility under each specification, where the investor level of risk aversion was derived by determining the constant. The utility function that failed to produce closed-form solutions was solved through the use of a numerical method to approximate the optimal portfolio weight. Furthermore, numerical simulations were performed using data from two stocks in the e-commerce sector to prove the impact of parameter changes on investment decisions. The result showed explicit analytical values for each utility function, providing investors with a structured framework for determining optimal portfolio weights consistent with their risk profile. Full article

We examine how institutional saving mechanisms influence retirement saving decisions under bounded rationality and income risk. Using a life-cycle experiment with habit formation and loss aversion, we test mandatory and voluntary binding savings under deterministic and stochastic income. Voluntary commitment improves saving performance only when income is predictable; under uncertainty, it fails to improve performance. Mandatory savings do not raise total saving, as participants reduce voluntary contributions. These results emphasize the role of income smoothing in enabling behavioral interventions to improve long-term financial outcomes. Full article

Cocoa farming in Ecuador faces significant challenges due to market volatility and climate-related risks, necessitating effective risk management strategies. This study investigates the interplay between risk attitudes (RAs), risk perceptions (RPs), and risk management strategies (RMSs) among Ecuadorian cocoa farmers, examining how these factors influence decision-making under uncertainty. Combining experimental lotteries to assess risk and loss aversion, with partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) to analyze survey data, we explore how farmers prioritize perceived impacts over probabilities in their risk assessments. The findings reveal that farmers focus more on mitigating severe perceived impacts, such as price drops and production losses due to adverse weather, than on probability-based strategies, commonly opting for diversification and nonagricultural activities. These results highlight the importance of designing policies and tools that address the perceived impacts of risks, align support with farmers’ needs, and improve access to financial resources and tailored insurances. This approach offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance cocoa farmers’ resilience in volatile agricultural environments. Full article

Accurate predictions of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) aftermarket performance are essential for making informed investment decisions in the financial sector. This paper attempts to predict IPO short-term underperformance during a month post-listing. The current research landscape lacks modern models that address the needs of small and imbalanced datasets relevant to emerging markets, as well as the risk preferences of investors. To fill this gap, we present a practical framework utilizing tree-based ensemble learning, including Bagging Classifier (BC), Random Forest (RF), AdaBoost (Ada), Gradient Boosting (GB), XGBoost (XG), Stacking Classifier (SC), and Extra Trees (ET), with Decision Tree (DT) as a base estimator. The framework leverages data-driven methodologies to optimize decision-making in complex financial systems, integrating ANOVA F-value for feature selection, Randomized Search for hyperparameter optimization, and SMOTE for class balance. The framework’s effectiveness is assessed using a hand-collected dataset that includes features from both pre-IPO prospectus and firm-specific financial data. We thoroughly evaluate the results using single-split evaluation and 10-fold cross-validation analysis. For the single-split validation, ET achieves the highest accuracy of 86%, while for the 10-fold validation, BC achieves the highest accuracy of 70%. Additionally, we compare the results of the proposed framework with deep-learning models such as MLP, TabNet, and ANN to assess their effectiveness in handling IPO underperformance predictions. These results demonstrate the framework’s capability to enable robust data-driven decision-making processes in complex and dynamic financial environments, even with limited and imbalanced datasets. The framework also proposes a dynamic methodology named Investor Preference Prediction Framework (IPPF) to match tree-based ensemble models to investors’ risk preferences when predicting IPO underperformance. It concludes that different models may be suitable for various risk profiles. For the dataset at hand, ET and Ada are more appropriate for risk-averse investors, while BC is suitable for risk-tolerant investors. The results underscore the framework’s importance in improving IPO underperformance predictions, which can better inform investment strategies and decision-making processes. Full article

Longitudinal research commenced in 2012 and was repeated in 2022 in two regional areas in Victoria, Australia. The researchers sought to understand the facilitators and barriers to climate adaptation, given the perception of the authors that climate adaptation was making little progress, a view supported following an extensive literature review and international consultations. Adaptation was not part of the debate when climate change was first discussed by the UN General Assembly in 1988 and not identified by the IPCC until 2007. Recent Australian governments have shown a ‘hands-off’ and uniformed approach. Research workshops and consultations sought the views of residents, community organisations, local governments and representatives of state agencies, who were invited or requested attendance. The workshops were designed to understand the perspective of participants, using a Search Conference methodology with both guided questions and participant-led issues. The results suggest that, despite the presence of many adaptation plans, the fundamental arrangements needed for the scale of adaptation required were not in place in 2012, nor in 2022. There was a lack of federal and state government action beyond their own institutional structures, responsibility for action being passed down the line to local government, business and community. Yet this devolvement was commonly not accompanied by financial support, supportive and inclusive governance arrangements, expert advice, data, or clear guidance for action. Climate adaptation policy remains disconnected from the broader economy, with little progress on how to achieve this task, which is rapidly growing in size and complexity. There is not an accepted roadmap for effective adaptation, an approach that does not easily fit into the risk-averse approach of public sector management that has prevailed in Australia since the 1980s. Full article

The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors influencing the attitudes of women investors in the context of Islamic unit trust funds in Malaysia, with a focus on women’s religiosity and on the perceived religiosity of fund providers. Using the UTAUT model, the study examines data from a survey of 263 Muslim women in Malaysia and considers seven key factors: risk aversion, religiosity, price sensitivity, and Islamic financial literacy on the side of the investing women and past performance, perceived religiosity, and perceived risk on the side of the fund providers. The findings indicate that the perceived religiosity of a fund provider has a significant and positive impact on attitude, with positive moderating effects on the women’s own religiosity and Islamic financial literacy, and a negative moderating effect on the women’s price sensitivity. The study also discusses the practical implications of these findings and offers recommendations for fund providers. Full article

This study examines the influence of chairman characteristics on dividend policy within Moroccan firms listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange, addressing a critical gap in the behavioral finance literature. This research focuses on five key attributes of chairmen—age, gender, nationality, tenure, and founder status—and analyzes their impact on dividend decisions over a 16-year period (2003–2018). A fixed effects panel data model was employed, incorporating six control variables—firm age, growth opportunities, size, board size, female representation, and foreign ownership. The results demonstrate that chairman age and tenure significantly affect dividend policy. Older chairmen are more risk-averse, favoring higher dividend distributions to ensure financial stability, while longer-tenured chairmen tend to retain earnings for aggressive investments, reflecting overconfidence. The other variables—gender, nationality, and founder status—showed no statistically significant effects in this context. This research provides the first empirical evidence on the relationship between chairman characteristics and dividend policy in Morocco. The findings offer valuable insights for investors, analysts, and policymakers in emerging markets, emphasizing the role of leadership traits in corporate financial strategies. By highlighting the importance of behavioral factors, this study enhances understanding of dividend policy determinants in developing economies. Full article

This paper reexamines the question of gender differences in financial relative risk aversion using updated methods and data. Specifically, the paper revisits the 1998 work “Are women more risk averse?” by Jianakoplos and Bernasek, suggests refinements in their model in relation to the database used, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), and performs new tests on the latest SCF from 2022. The suggested refinements pertain first to an enhanced computation of wealth, which includes additional categories of assets such as 401(k)s or other thrift savings accounts, and second to the more subtle handling and consideration of specific demographic data of the SCF respondents. Unlike the original study, which also included married couples, the new study focuses exclusively on single-headed (never-married) households. This eliminates ambiguity about the actual financial decision maker in households, enabling a clearer assessment of individual gendered behavior. Following the refinements, the new tests reveal a continuing pattern of decreasing relative risk aversion; however, contrary to the 1998 findings, there is no significant gender difference in financial relative risk aversion in 2022. This study also documents that education levels strongly influence risk-taking: single women with higher education levels are more likely to hold risky assets, while for men, higher education correlates with less risk-taking. The paper concludes by informing policymakers and financial educators so as to further tailor their strategies for promoting gender equality in financial decision-making. Full article

The paper aims to examine the relationships between behavioural biases (such as overconfidence and herding) and the rational behaviour of Australian female consumers when making financial decisions. In doing so, the paper showcases the financial illiteracy of Australian female consumers when confronted with irregularities within the Australian financial markets. From a theoretical standpoint, the study adopts the notions of the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) to understand the reasoning behind the relationships between behavioural biases (such as overconfidence and herding) and the rational behaviour of Australian female consumers when making decisions rationally. Using a quantitative approach, a structural equation modelling (SEM) was conducted on the proposed theoretical framework with a cleaned dataset of 357 Australian female consumers, which revealed that behavioural biases significantly influence each stage of rational decision-making when making financial decisions. More precisely, the structural equation modelling (SEM) showcases that herding behaviour has a significant positive relationship with the information search and evaluation of alternative stages when making financial decisions. However, overconfidence behaviour has a significant negative relationship with demand identification and evaluation of alternative stages when making financial decisions. Moreover, the findings also showcase that the proposed theoretical model closely fits with the data utilised, indicating that Australian female consumers do follow rational decision-making when making financial decisions. Additionally, the findings revealed that the education and income levels of Australian female consumers positively influence the stages of rational decision-making. The findings also contend that Australian female consumers have a risk-averse attitude (i.e., within three key hypothetical scenarios) towards financial decisions due to the presence of financial illiteracy. Hence, it is strongly suggested that financial institutions highlight the calculative benefits and returns from financial product purchases in advertising and promotions in a way that appeals to female consumer segments. Full article

Lithium, a crucial raw material for new energy vehicles, is experiencing significant market price fluctuations due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, periodic mismatches in supply and demand, and increased attention to lithium resources from countries around the world. These factors may adversely affect the development of the new energy vehicle industry. This paper adopts the TVP-VAR-DY model, which measures dynamic spillover effects by allowing for variance changes through the estimation of a stochastic Kalman filter, thereby measuring risk spillover among upstream and downstream firms in the lithium industry chain. We selected 16 listed companies and six regional financial markets as the research sample, with the sample period from 4 July 2018, to 30 June 2023. The main conclusions are as follows: Between 2018 and 2020, the overall risk spillover in the lithium industry chain demonstrated a declining trend, though it experienced a sudden surge in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This increase was followed by a gradual decline as the global economy improved and market stability was restored, leading to a reduction in risk aversion. Regarding the reception of risk spillovers, upstream firms exhibited a generally consistent level of directional risk spillovers, whereas downstream firms experienced more significant fluctuations. Chinese firms exhibited a higher level of received risk spillovers compared to their international counterparts, with less variation in these spillovers. From the perspective of risk spillover effects, significant variations were observed between firms in both the upstream and downstream markets. Chinese firms exhibited a higher level of risk inflow than international firms, with more pronounced changes in risk spillovers. Upstream enterprises should enhance their market competitiveness to mitigate the adverse effects of economic uncertainty. Downstream enterprises can alleviate the rise in raw material costs resulting from market price fluctuations through strategic cooperation. Additionally, the government should increase the market supply of resources, which will contribute to the establishment of a more robust lithium industry chain system. Full article

Poverty reduction is the primary goal of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Enhancing the purchase rate of health insurance is essential for alleviating poverty caused by health shocks, as it serves as a crucial risk management tool for addressing health-related risks. In this paper, we investigate the impact of digital inclusive finance on household participation in terms of health insurance and financial vulnerability, utilizing the Digital Inclusive Finance Index developed by Peking University and survey data from the China Household Finance Survey. Our findings indicate that the advancement of digital inclusive finance can significantly reduce the risk of household financial vulnerability by increasing household health insurance enrollment rate. The findings are robust across various digital inclusive finance indices, different metrics for financial vulnerability, alternative econometric models, and additional control variables. Furthermore, the effects of digital inclusive finance on health insurance enrollments and household financial vulnerability are particularly pronounced among urban households and those led by younger and more risk-averse household heads. Our findings advocate for further development of digital inclusive finance, mainly targeted at rural households and those with elderly heads, to enhance health insurance participation and mitigate the risk of illness-related poverty. Full article

In recent years, China’s financial markets have come under increasing scrutiny. In order to explore the impact of financial literacy on urban household investment in the risk financial market, this paper used the micro-data of the 2019 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) to start from two perspectives: household risk financial investment and the number of investment financial products, namely the breadth of investment. By constructing a probit model and ordered probit model for empirical analysis, the main conclusions are as follows. Benchmark regression results show that the improvement of financial literacy can significantly promote urban households to make risky financial investments and can significantly broaden the types of risky financial investments. Based on the IV-probit model and two-stage least square method, the endogeneity test using the economic and financial information attention degree as the instrumental variable showed that the model results were credible. The robustness test showed that the model results were basically correct. Furthermore, the mechanism analysis found that the use of fintech played an intermediary effect in the process of financial literacy affecting urban household risky financial investment and the amount of investment. This indicates that the improvement of financial literacy can improve the probability of using fintech, thus promoting the household risky financial investment behavior. Heterogeneity analysis based on risk attitude showed that financial literacy had a greater effect on the improvement in the risky financial investment behavior of risk-inclined families, followed by risk-neutral families, and had the least effect on risk-averse families. The research conclusions of this paper are of practical significance to solve the problems related to urban household financial market investment. Therefore, this paper puts forward some suggestions for reference, especially in terms of financial education and the digital economy. Full article

Malnutrition is a major concern in Madagascar. Eating a wide variety of nutritious food is necessary because Malagasy diets heavily rely on rice consumption. This study explored the barriers to dietary change towards diversification from the perspective of consumer behaviour. We analysed the impact of risk and time preferences on dietary diversity using economic experiments conducted with 539 rural lowland rice farmers in Central Highlands in Madagascar. The results showed that risk-averse or impatient individuals were more likely to have lower Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), indicating poorer diet quality. Risk-averse people may not want to add different foods to meals as they perceive unfamiliar food as a ‘risk’; people who prefer immediate gratification may fail to invest in nutritious diets now to achieve better health in the future. Additionally, higher HDDS was observed among households with a female head who earned off-farm income and who had frequent market visits. These findings contribute to explaining the limited shift in nutritional transition in Madagascar and provide useful insights into nutritional policies promoting healthier food choices. Depending on the preferences, more focused support such as nutritional education, financial support, market development, and pre-commitment mechanisms could be provided to reward long-term nutritional benefits. Full article

In financial markets, irrational behaviors such as hyperbolic discounting and panic selling are prevalent. However, their widespread empirical associations remain unexplored. Numerous behavioral theories discuss how cognitive biases exacerbate panic selling through the lens of immediate loss aversion, a phenomenon in which individuals exhibit impulsive decision-making tendencies due to an intense fear of financial loss during market upheaval. Despite the theoretical elucidation, empirical investigations of these dynamics are lacking. Using a robust dataset comprising 121,293 active investors sourced from a collaborative effort between Hiroshima University and Rakuten Securities Inc., this study used mean comparison tests and probit regression to analyze hyperbolic discounting’s role in panic selling behavior on the global COVID-19 financial crisis. The findings reveal that hyperbolic discounting plays a central role in triggering investors’ impulsive panic selling behavior, which is driven primarily by fear of potential losses. Other factors that influence panic selling behavior include age, male gender, low education level, financial literacy, household income, household assets, risk aversion, and overconfidence in financial knowledge. Our study explicates the need to address cognitive biases in financial decision making during market crises through strategies such as targeted financial education, regulatory interventions against market manipulation, and the provision of professional advice to investors. Full article