Search Results (21,503)

Climate-induced natural hazards can result in disruptions and failures of railway routes which are associated with high economic costs. Hence, the mechanisms of climate impacts posing a threat to rail transport must be identified, analysed and localised in railway networks. This study aims at assessing heavy rainfall hazards on the railway network of the federal state Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) in Germany and presents a GIS-based flooding indicator. A rule-based classification and aggregation approach with a hazard matrix was developed using potential flooding depths and flow velocities, resulting in five hazard classes. The approach was applied to the railway network in NRW for two heavy rainfall scenarios (N₁₀₀, N_ext). The results show that the clear majority of route kilometres are classified as at least moderate hazard in both precipitation scenarios considered (N_ext 81%, N₁₀₀ 72%). On railway routes in low mountain range regions, more sections are assigned higher hazard classes than in flat landscapes. The plausibility of the indicator was explored through scenario, structural and conceptual parameter analyses, which support robustness of the results. The maps can serve as a tool for making qualitative statements on the potential impact on the German railway network and localising these impacts spatially. Full article

Background: Patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) have a small but clinically relevant risk of intracranial injury (ICI), requiring timely detection. Computed tomography (CT) remains the diagnostic gold standard but is costly and exposes patients to ionising radiation. Combining blood-based biomarkers, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1), with clinical decision rules may allow safe exclusion of ICI without CT, reducing unnecessary imaging, radiation exposure, and resource use. Methods: A systematic review of clinical and economic studies in patients with mTBI was registered in PROSPERO (CRD420251051158). Searches were conducted in January 2025 and updated in May 2025 in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. The aim was to assess the diagnostic accuracy and economic value of the combination of GFAP and UCH-L1 compared with CT scanning to rule out ICI in both adults and children with mTBI. Where available, studies directly comparing GFAP and UCH-L1 with S100β were also analysed descriptively. The quality of the clinical evidence was assessed with QUADAS-2 and GRADE. Meta-analyses used a bivariate random-effects model, with heterogeneity and sensitivity analyses explored. Results: Overall, 21 studies were considered in our review. Moderate- to high-quality evidence indicates that GFAP and UCH-L1, when used together with clinical assessment, have very high sensitivity and can reliably rule out ICI in adults with mTBI presenting within 12 h to the emergency department. Evidence for paediatric populations shows promise but remains very limited. Specificity is low, particularly in older adults, which limits the ability to reduce CT use in this high-risk group. Research on age-adjusted cut-offs is ongoing and may help to reduce the proportion of false positive tests without compromising sensitivity. Few studies directly compared GFAP and UCH-L1 with S100β, with slightly higher to equivalent sensitivity for GFAP and UCH-L1. Economic evaluations suggest possible cost savings and reduced CT utilisation, but these analyses rely on assumptions unsupported by robust data and are highly context-dependent. There is a lack of clarity in the included studies regarding whether existing clinical head rules were used to define the study populations (i.e., to determine which patients would be recommended for CT scanning) and, if so, which specific rules were applied. Conclusions: Evidence shows that GFAP and UCH-L1 can safely exclude ICI in adults with mTBI in whom a CT scan would otherwise be considered based on clinical assessment or decision rules. Nevertheless, real-world evidence and cost-effectiveness data are scarce. Further prospective studies, including paediatric and elderly populations, and integration with clinical decision rules will be informative to ensure optimal use in clinical practice. Full article

Introduction: Marine recreational fishing (MRF) is a socially, economically, and ecologically important activity. However, the absence of systematic monitoring and research in Portugal has limited a comprehensive understanding of the sector and its broader implications. Addressing these gaps is essential to support evidence-based and adaptive recreational fisheries management. Objective: This work aimed to improve understanding of marine recreational fishing in Portugal by integrating social and biological perspectives across national, regional, and local scales. Methodology: A multidisciplinary approach was applied. At the national scale, online questionnaire data were combined with licencing information and regional effort estimates to quantify fishing effort, catches, release rates, catch composition, and direct trip expenditures. The same survey framework was also used to identify recreational fisher profiles based on motivations, behaviours, fishing practices, and attitudes toward management. At the local scale, shore angling surveys conducted before the implementation of the Natural Marine Park of the Algarve Reef were used to estimate fishing activity and establish a baseline for future monitoring. From a biological perspective, field-based catch-and-release experiments were conducted to assess post-release mortality and physiological disturbance, using indicators such as mortality, condition, capture and handling variables, and blood biomarkers of stress and recovery. Results: The national estimates documented substantial fishing effort, catches, and direct expenditure, confirming the relevance of MRF in Portugal at both ecological and socio-economic levels. Portuguese recreational fishers were also shown to be heterogeneous in their motivations, behaviours, and practices, reinforcing the need for management approaches that reflect this diversity. At the local scale, shore angling estimates from the Natural Marine Park of the Algarve Reef provided an important pre-protection baseline for the now established Marine Protected Area, enabling future comparisons and long-term assessment of management effects. Biological experiments showed that recreational fishing can generate measurable physiological disturbance in fish, with post-release condition influenced by capture and handling factors. Among the variables examined, hook location emerged as particularly important, with deep-hooked fish showing greater impairment and higher mortality risk. Conclusions: Together, these findings show that improving recreational fisheries management in Portugal requires integrating social patterns, fishery magnitude, and biological responses to capture and release. Long-term monitoring programmes, combined with management approaches adapted to different fisher profiles and fishing contexts, are essential to support more effective and sustainable recreational fisheries governance. Full article

This study determines the size of the means-of-production markets (MMP) generated by Bulgarian crop production and assesses their comparability with crop product markets (PM). Eight component markets are analyzed: fertilizers, irrigation water, plant protection products, seeds and planting material, buildings and stationary equipment, agricultural machinery, technical and other services, and energy. The methodology integrates firm-level financial data from domestic producers, international trade statistics, and official national data. A detailed market reconstruction based on quantities, prices, and absolute and relative shares is conducted for the reference years 2023 and 2024, constituting the core analytical layer of the study. To test the structural stability of the symmetry relationship across a broader price cycle, the symmetry analysis is extended to the period 2021–2024 using official data aggregate for all markets. The symmetry coefficient (MMP/PM) shows structural comparability ranging from ½ to over ¾ between the two market systems over the full period, averaging 0.72 for 2023–2024. Price dynamics exert a stronger influence on market symmetry than volume changes. Crop product markets exhibit substantially greater price volatility than means-of-production markets. The combined economic contribution of Bulgarian crop production—integrating direct output value with the means-of-production markets it generates—amounted to over EUR 5756.3 million in 2024, substantially exceeding the total agricultural sector output reported in national accounts and implying a real contribution to GDP well above the officially recorded 3% share. Full article

Using a dataset covering January 1975 to March 2026 and six agricultural commodities, wheat, corn, soybeans, oats, sugar, and coffee, this paper explores the role of geopolitical risk (acts and threats) in shaping cross-market connectedness. It proposes a multilayer methodology based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR), the exponential GARCH with exogenous variables (EGARCH-X), and the wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) frameworks. This methodology captures cross-market volatility spillovers, assesses the effects of geopolitical risk and its components on the strength and instability of connectedness, and incorporates nonlinearity and asymmetry across investment horizons and market conditions. The results show a time-varying pattern in agricultural cross-market connectedness. Corn and soybeans transmit volatility shocks, while the other commodities are net receivers. These commodities have a central position in the connectivity network, whereas sugar and coffee are in the peripheral zone. The EGARCH-X results show that geopolitical acts and threats do not significantly alter the overall level of connectedness but intensify its volatility, suggesting that geopolitical tensions primarily influence stability rather than the intensity of connectedness. Economic policy uncertainty and oil price volatility have similar effects. In line with these results, the WQC analysis uncovers significant nonlinearity and state-dependent linkages, underscoring that the effect of geopolitical acts and threats becomes prominent over medium- and long-term horizons and during periods of market stress. These findings contribute to the literature by differentiating the effects of geopolitical incidents on agricultural market connectedness versus volatility. From an operational standpoint, these results imply that policymakers and market operators should enhance their risk-monitoring and hedging strategies during periods of high geopolitical stress, as such events can amplify instability across agricultural commodity markets. Full article

Biochar, a carbon-rich material produced through pyrolysis of biomass under limited oxygen conditions, offers a potentially sustainable and cost-competitive solution (qualitative assessment; quantitative LCA and techno-economic data are beyond the scope of this review) for the removal of heavy metals from wastewater. Its high porosity, surface area, and surface functional groups enable diverse adsorption mechanisms, including complexation, ion exchange, and precipitation. Feedstock selection and production parameters critically influence biochar’s physicochemical properties and adsorption performance. Modification techniques such as chemical functionalization, metal impregnation, and composite formation enhance removal efficiency and selectivity for specific contaminants. Applications span industrial, municipal, and agricultural wastewaters, addressing multi-contaminant challenges under variable environmental conditions. Factors affecting removal efficiency include pH, temperature, contaminant concentration, and competing ions, while regeneration methods are essential for maintaining long-term functionality and are discussed. Biochar can be reused and regenerated using bases and acids, but environmental risks related to biochar use, including potential contaminant leaching and ecological impacts, require careful management and regulatory compliance. Future research should focus on novel modification strategies, scaling production for industrial use, and optimizing integration within treatment systems to meet stringent discharge standards and promote sustainable water management. Full article

Introduction: The Iberian killifish (Apricaphanius iberus), an endemic cyprinodontid of the Spanish Mediterranean coast, is a key conservation species due to its restricted distribution, high sensitivity to habitat alteration and invasive fish, and ecological role in saline wetlands. Classified as Endangered by national administration and listed in Annex II of the EU Habitats Directive, its populations have undergone severe declines across its native range. Coastal salt pans have become critical refuges for the persistence of this species, often supporting some of the highest population densities recorded. However, the conservation value of these anthropogenic systems strongly depends on hydrological management, which directly influences habitat stability and suitability. Objectives: This study aims to assess the long-term population responses of A. iberus under contrasting hydrological management regimes in coastal salt pans. Methodology: We analysed ten years of monitoring data across five salt pan circuits in the perimeter area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain), covering a salinity gradient and three management regimes: economic exploitation (EE), preventive management (PM), and non-management (NM). Population metrics (occurrence, abundance and breeder proportion) were evaluated. Results: Population performance differed markedly among management regimes. EE circuits showed consistently high occurrence and abundance, including in hypersaline ponds, high breeder proportions, low interannual variability, and weak dependence on meteorological conditions and ephemeral prey. PM circuits displayed intermediate patterns. In contrast, NM circuits exhibited low occurrence and abundance, low breeder proportions, high temporal fluctuations, and strong dependence on meteorological variability. Conclusions: Hydrological management is a key determinant of A. iberus population stability in coastal salt pans. Maintaining or restoring traditional management practices enhances habitat suitability, buffers environmental variability, and supports conservation actions such as reintroduction. These findings highlight the critical role of managed anthropogenic wetlands as refuges for endangered fishes and provide a transferable framework for conservation under global change. Full article

Flooding poses a significant threat to commercial real estate investment, disrupting business operations, escalating maintenance costs, and heightening investment uncertainty, particularly in coastal and low-lying urban environments. This study examines the social dimensions of climate vulnerability by investigating how flood risk shapes stakeholders’ decisions to invest in commercial properties within flood-prone urban areas, with a focus on Lekki Phase 1, Lagos, Nigeria. A quantitative survey design was adopted. Data were collected from 87 commercial property investors through a structured questionnaire (FIIFRZQ) measured on a four-point Likert-type scale. The instrument demonstrated acceptable overall internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.72), with subscale α values ranging from 0.62 to 0.81. Multiple regression analysis was used to assess the joint and individual contributions of seven factor categories (environmental, legal, economic, neighbourhood, structural, locational and behavioural) to investors’ willingness to invest in commercial property that is at risk of flooding. The seven predictors collectively explained 61.2% of the variance in investment willingness (R² = 0.612; F(7, 79) = 17.91; p < 0.001). Five factors, namely legal, environmental, structural, economic, and locational, were statistically significant contributors to investment willingness, while neighbourhood and behavioural factors were not. Johnson’s relative weights analysis confirmed legal and environmental considerations as the dominant drivers. The findings illuminate the interplay between climate vulnerability and investor behaviour in urban real estate markets, with actionable implications for policymakers, real estate practitioners, and investors navigating decision-making in flood-exposed urban environments. Full article

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a central role in power system operation, electricity markets, and the integration of high shares of renewable energy. Over the past decade, forecasting approaches have evolved from classical statistical time-series models to advanced machine learning and deep learning architectures. This review analyses 119 studies published between 2016 and 2026, providing a structured assessment of PV forecasting methodologies, including model types, data requirements, validation strategies, and performance evaluation practices. Beyond summarizing existing approaches, the paper identifies three major methodological gaps in the literature: (i) fragmentation of evaluation metrics, which limits cross-study comparability; (ii) insufficient reporting of data preprocessing procedures and temporal leakage prevention; and (iii) limited integration of forecasting accuracy with economic and operational performance metrics. A systematic comparison of representative studies is conducted to highlight dominant modelling trends and persistent limitations. Beyond a descriptive summary, this review highlights significant limitations in methodological reporting across the 119 studies analysed, particularly regarding temporal leakage prevention in Deep Learning-based forecasting. To address these issues, we introduce a reproducibility checklist and propose a strategic roadmap aimed at strengthening the link between statistical accuracy (e.g., RMSE/MAE) and operational relevance in electricity markets. Full article

Deoxynivalenol (DON) is a prevalent trichothecene mycotoxin in cereals that poses food and feed safety risks while causing important economic losses. Microbial biotransformation offers a selective, mild strategy for DON detoxification. Here, we screened aerobic soil-derived bacterial communities from diverse agricultural environments, using DON as the sole carbon source for this mycotoxin depletion. More than half of the tested enrichment samples showed a reduced DON signal, as observed by HPLC-UV. To assess the biological relevance, culture extracts were tested for cytotoxicity in HepG2 cells. Z13, a soil sample that depleted DON but produced no other detectable metabolites, showed reduced cytotoxicity, comparable to the negative control. In contrast, samples that depleted DON but produced 3-keto-DON remained toxic. High-resolution LC-MS analysis indicated the formation of metabolites putatively identified as 3-keto-DON in enrichment cultures and 3-epi-DON in a Devosia strain culture. Community composition was profiled with 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, which showed that Z13 presented a remarkable drop in diversity upon microbial cultivation, and included genera such as Devosia, Nocardioides, and Pseudomonas. Together, these results provide integrated chemical, biological, and ecological evidence for aerobic DON biotransformation in soil-derived communities, identify pathway products, and highlight practical constraints related to community dependence and storage sensitivity. Full article

Efficient and financially sustainable social protection systems are essential under conditions of economic instability and increasing social demand. However, traditional administrative models are often characterized by high operational costs, procedural complexity, and delayed benefit delivery. This study examines the role of digitalization, process automation, and AI-driven administrative solutions in reducing administrative expenses while enhancing the sustainability and resilience of social protection systems. An integrated Automation Index is developed using standardized proxy indicators that reflect reductions in operational and transaction costs associated with digital and automated technologies. To assess future trajectories of administrative expenses, scenario-based modelling is applied under three digital transformation paths—baseline, moderate, and intensive. Administrative efficiency is estimated using a translog Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) framework. The results indicate that digitalization and automation significantly reduce administrative costs only when supported by favorable institutional conditions, including decentralized governance, effective inter-agency coordination, and clearly regulated administrative procedures. Under the intensive digital transformation scenario, administrative expenses decline substantially relative to the baseline, while system responsiveness and beneficiary coverage improve. In contrast, weak institutional environments limit the efficiency gains of technological solutions. The study concludes that AI agents and automated systems should be viewed not as substitutes for human decision-making but as tools for optimizing administrative architectures. This transition from resource-intensive to technology-intensive models is particularly important for developing countries seeking sustainable social protection under constrained fiscal conditions. Full article

Agrivoltaic systems, which enable simultaneous crop production and solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation on the same land, can support climate mitigation, food security, and rural development. Leguminous crops like beans are globally important, yet there is limited performance studies on diverse agrivoltaic trials. This limits appropriate policy guidance. To overcome these limitations, this study assessed organic green bush bean performance under thirteen PV configurations with varying transparency and spectral properties, comparing both agricultural outcomes against national yields and policy standards. The results in vegetative metrics indicated that blue-spectrum thin-film and intermediate-transparency c-Si modules supported growth near German productivity thresholds. Although no agrivoltaic system matched national average yields, combining crop and energy revenues revealed substantial benefits: the 44%—transparent c-Si configuration generated 340% more total revenue than traditional farming, and the blue 70%—transparent thin-film system achieved 94% of national yield but 164% of conventional farm revenue per acre. Electricity generation gains outweighed modest crop reductions, highlighting strong synergies between food and energy. The results of this study highlights the potential of agrivoltaic systems to enhance land-use efficiency, support renewable energy expansion, and improve rural economic resilience, while underscoring the need for multi-year trials and site-specific controls to validate long-term sustainability outcomes. Full article

The worldwide shift to electric mobility has intensified in recent years owing to heightened apprehensions over greenhouse gas emissions, energy security, and the necessity for sustainable transportation systems. Electric vehicles (EVs) are acknowledged as a viable alternative for diminishing reliance on fossil fuels and enhancing energy efficiency in the transportation sector. While affluent nations have achieved considerable advancements in electric vehicle adoption and charging infrastructure, numerous developing countries still encounter significant technical and infrastructural obstacles that hinder extensive EV integration. In South Africa, these difficulties are exacerbated by ongoing electrical supply limitations, deteriorating transmission and distribution facilities, and recurrent load shedding, which heighten worries about the dependability and stability of the national power grid. The rising adoption of electric vehicles adds extra electrical demands to power systems, especially at the distribution network level, where most of the charging takes place. Disorganized EV charging can substantially modify current load patterns, leading to heightened peak demand, voltage variations, transformer overload, and network congestion. The technical consequences are especially significant in South Africa, where the power grid functions with constricted generation capacity and minimal reserve margins. Various mitigating measures have been suggested to tackle these difficulties, including intelligent charging, demand-side management, time-of-use pricing, and vehicle-to-grid technologies. This paper establishes a basic theoretical framework through an extensive literature review to investigate the technological problems related to electric vehicle adoption in South Africa, while assessing the environmental and economic ramifications for sustainable urban transportation systems. Full article

Background: Liver cancer is a major global public health challenge, with substantial morbidity, mortality, and economic costs. Growing attention has turned to sleep-related behaviors, including daytime napping, as potential risk factors for cancer. Evidence regarding the association between daytime napping and liver cancer remains inconsistent. We, therefore, conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate this association. Methods: Several databases were searched up to 1 October 2025, for studies assessing the association between daytime napping and liver cancer. Study quality was evaluated using the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS). Pooled hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated with random-effects models. Results: Four prospective cohort studies, involving 1,281,628 participants, were included. All studies were of high methodological quality according to NOS. The pooled analysis showed a significant association between daytime napping and liver cancer risk (HR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.43). The results did not significantly vary by sex or region. Exploratory subgroup analyses showed similar findings across sex and region. Sensitivity analyses, performed by sequentially removing each study and recombining the remaining studies, yielded pooled HRs ranging from 1.20 to 1.29. Conclusions: Daytime napping was associated with a higher risk of liver cancer. However, residual confounding and reverse causation cannot be excluded, and whether this association reflects a causal relationship or underlying health conditions remains uncertain. Further large-scale prospective studies with detailed assessments of the frequency and duration of daytime napping are needed to confirm this association. Full article

As climate change intensifies, transitioning the construction sector away from fossil fuels is vital to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and localized urban pollution. This paper assesses the economic feasibility of electrifying construction machinery by developing an Annualized Cost of Ownership framework that incorporates mobile charging solutions, internalizes environmental and public health operational externalities (CO₂, PM_2.5, NO_x, and SO₂), and relies on Monte Carlo simulation with Cholesky decomposition to capture the interdependencies among cost drivers. We analyze twenty distinct models of excavators and wheel loaders—the two largest contributors to construction-machinery emissions—comprising functionally equivalent diesel and battery-electric variants. Our results show that several compact electric models are already cost-competitive even without internalizing environmental and public health operational externalities. When these are accounted for, the economic advantage of electric machinery increases, particularly in denser urban areas where local air pollution damages are severe. While projected battery cost reductions further lower electric ownership costs, the magnitude of this effect is modest. However, the weak penetration of electric construction equipment in the US underscores that targeted policy interventions—such as point-of-sale rebates, green procurement mandates, tax credits, charging infrastructure subsidies, or the creation of low-emission zones and noise ordinances that advantage electric construction machinery—are needed to accelerate market adoption. These measures are particularly critical in densely populated urban areas, where internalizing local air pollution and public health externalities significantly amplifies the economic value of zero-emission machinery. Full article