Search Results (115)

The Eastern Mediterranean is a rapidly warming climate change hotspot where heat and air pollution increasingly interact to affect human health. This study quantifies the mortality burden attributed to the synergistic effects of thermal stress and air pollution in Thessaloniki, Greece. Daily mortality data (2001–2019) were analyzed together with pollutant concentrations (PM10, NO₂, O₃) and the modified Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (mPET) using a hierarchical Generalized Additive Model with Distributed Lag Non-Linear terms to capture combined, lagged, and age-specific responses. A refined, count-independent definition of the Attributable Fraction (AF) was introduced to improve stability in small strata. The results show that heat and pollution act synergistically, explaining on average 20–30% of daily mortality during severe co-occurrence events. Seniors were most affected during hot, polluted summers (AF ≈ 27%), while adults showed higher burdens during cold, polluted winters (AF ≈ 30%). Intra-urban analyses revealed stronger simultaneous effects in the western, more industrial districts, reflecting combined environmental and socioeconomic vulnerability. The findings demonstrate that temperature extremes amplify pollution-related mortality and underline the need to integrate air quality and bioclimatic indicators into early warning and adaptation systems in Eastern Mediterranean cities. Full article

The assessment of bioclimatic conditions and meteorological parameters—such as air temperature and precipitation—helps identify optimal periods for various activities, considering regional and individual factors. Climatic and bioclimatic conditions are major factors influencing human health and daily activity. These factors are instrumental in determining the quality of life, the state of health, and the overall well-being of individuals. The analysis of meteorological parameters, including air temperature, humidity, and precipitation, facilitates the evaluation of climatic comfort across diverse regions. Bioclimatic studies are instrumental in identifying zones with favorable or unfavorable living conditions, a matter of particular importance in the planning of urban development and the formulation of landscaping and gardening measures. The study aims to assess the bioclimatic conditions prevailing in the Almaty region. It focuses on the Kapshagay Reservoir during the period 1990–2020, applying commonly used biometeorological indices. The software product ClimPACT2, which was developed for the analysis of extreme phenomena and weather changes, was utilized for the calculations. The primary meteorological indicators, specifically temperature and precipitation, were selected for the calculation of climatic indices. The observed spatial and temporal trends of climate change in the study area were analyzed. The findings indicated a substantial increase in the frequency of warm days and nights, concurrently accompanied by a decline in the occurrence of cold days and nights. The identified trends indicate a marked warming of the climate, which may have serious consequences for ecosystems and human activities. The analysis also revealed a significant increase in total annual precipitation in coastal zones. Full article

In addition to air temperature and personal factors, other weather quantities govern the outdoor human thermal perception. This study provides a new targeted approach for the evaluation of extreme events based on a specific multivariable bioclimate index. Heat waves (HWs) and outdoor human thermal stress (OHTS) events that occurred in downtown Rome (Italy) over the years 2018–2023 are identified, characterized, and compared through appropriate indices based on the air temperature for HWs and the Mediterranean Outdoor Comfort Index (MOCI) for OHTS events. The overlap between the two types of events is evaluated for each year through the hit (HR) and false alarm rates. The outcomes reveal severe traits for HWs and OHTS events and higher values of HR (minimum of 66%) with OHTS as a predictor of extreme conditions. This pilot investigation confirms that the use of air temperature threshold underestimates human physiological stress, revealing the importance of including multiple parameters, such as weather variables (temperature, wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation) and personal factors, in the assessment of hazards for the population living in a specific geographical region. This type of approach reveals increasingly critical facets and can provide key strategies to establish safe outdoor conditions for occupational and leisure activities. Full article

To analyze the climatic evolution of Greece, the ERA5-Land dataset, providing high spatial (~9 km) and temporal (daily) resolution, was utilized. Since the dataset comes from reanalysis (surface, satellite, and radiosonde measurements assimilated with the forecast model), it is ideal for assessing atmospheric variations. Input parameters were used to calculate the Johansson, Kerner, and Pinna climatic indices during the 1964–1993 and 1994–2023 periods. Along with the spatial distribution of the indices for each time interval, the spatial statistics related to the phytogeographical regions of Greece were also demonstrated. The results indicate a clear shift in the climate’s characterization by more “Continental” and more “Moderate Dry” classes, mostly in inland parts of the country. Outcomes involving the mapping material along with spatial statistics data may shed light on the spatial and temporal changes in the climate over the Greek peninsula. Full article

Climate change significantly alters vegetation distribution patterns in arid regions, while ecological water conveyance serves as a critical intervention to modify these patterns by augmenting water availability. As a keystone species in Central Asia’s water-stressed ecosystems, Populus euphratica plays a pivotal role in maintaining arid ecosystem stability, making the investigation of its habitat suitability under combined climate change and ecological water conveyance imperative. This study selected 12 variables associated with the spatial distribution of P. euphratica, including bioclimate, groundwater resources, available water storage capacity, elevation, distance to rivers, and stocking rate. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, we projected habitat distributions of P. euphratica across the Tarim River Basin with three scenarios: no climate change, climate change, and ecological water conveyance. The study indicated that (1) distance to rivers has the significant effect on the distribution of P. euphratica; (2) although climate change is expected to reduce the habitat suitable for P. euphratica, the implementation of ecological water conveyance is expected to lead to an expansion of its habitat; (3) the implementation of ecological water conveyance is expected to cause the habitat suitable for P. euphratica to shift toward the southeast, suggesting that this initiative has increased groundwater resources in the southeastern part of the watershed. These findings provide a scientific foundation for protecting P. euphratica and formulating effective ecological water conveyance strategies. Full article

The Southeastern European territory is under severe climatic pressure owing to accelerating dry–thermal trends. The present survey illustrates the spatial and temporal evolution of the climate regime over the natural and agricultural landcover of South-eastern Europe and individual countries (Albania, Bosnia Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, N. Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia). For this purpose, a high spatial resolution of the Johansson Continentality index, the Kerner Oceanity index and the Pinna Combinative index was first estimated over two climatic periods (1964–1993; 1994–2023). The Johansson index depicts increasing continentality over the southern and eastern regions, majorly by the spatiotemporal expansion of the Continental climate over the agricultural and natural areas of Bulgaria (respectively, from 49.9% to 73.7% and from 13.3% to 36.8%) followed by Serbia, Romania, and Greece. The Kerner index illustrates increasing continentality over most of the study area owing to the spatiotemporal increase in the Sub-Continental climate type over the agricultural and the natural regions of Bosnia Herzegovina (from 68.6% to 84% and from 41.4% to 63.2%), N. Macedonia, Slovenia and the natural areas of Croatia and Serbia. The extension of the Continental over the agricultural and natural areas of Romania is also shown. The Pinna index exhibits an increasing aridity trend, which is more intense in the central and eastern regions. This trend is demonstrated by the higher distribution of the Semi-Dry in the second period mostly over the agricultural and natural areas of Bulgaria (2.4% to 23.1% and 0.7% to 5.8%), and a remarkable expansion of the Moderate Wet climate over both area types of Romania (from 3.3% to 44.8% and from 5.6% to 15.2%) and Bosnia Herzegovina (from 13.7% to 33.5% and from 3.5% to 13.2%). This study’s results highlight the necessity for intensifying adaptation plans and actions aiming at the feasibility of agricultural practices and the conservation of natural areas. Full article

In recent years, many spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst., Pinaceae) forests have been severely affected by bark beetle (Ips typographus L., Coleoptera: Curculionidae) outbreaks in the Southern Alps, but their ecological impacts remain poorly studied. We analyzed the distribution, ecological, and floristic–vegetational characteristics of forests recently affected by the bark beetle in the upper basin of the Oglio River (Northern Italy) and developed a MaxEnt model to map forests with a bioclimate more prone to severe insect attacks in the coming decades. The results showed that the spruce forests affected by the bark beetle are located exclusively in the submountain and mountain belts (below 1600 m a.s.l.) and that 85% of them are found in areas with high annual solar radiation (>3500 MJ m⁻²). The predictive model for areas susceptible to severe bark beetle attacks proved highly accurate (AUC = 0.91) and was primarily defined by the mean temperature of the dry winter quarter (contribution: 80.1%), with values between −2.5 and 2.5 °C being particularly suitable for the pest. According to the model, more than 58% of the current spruce forests in the study area will exhibit high susceptibility (probability > 0.7) to severe bark beetle attacks by 2080. The floristic–vegetational and ecological analysis of plant communities of 11 bark beetle-affected areas indicated that more thermophilic and significantly different forest communities (in both floristic and physiognomic terms) are expected to develop compared to those of pre-disturbance. Furthermore, the high coverage of spruce snags/standing dead trees appears to accelerate plant succession, enabling the establishment of mature forest communities in a shorter time frame. Full article

This data descriptor presents δ-MedBioclim, a newly developed dataset for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This dataset applies the delta-change method by comparing the values of 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the reference period (1981–2010) with their projections for future periods (2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100) under the SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. These anomalies are added to two pre-existing datasets, ERA5-Land and CHELSA, yielding resolutions of 0.1° and 0.01°, respectively. Additionally, this manuscript provides a ranking of GCMs for each major river basin within the study area to guide model selection. δ-MedBioclim includes, for all the aforementioned scenarios, monthly mean temperature, total monthly precipitation, and 23 bioclimatic variables, including 9 (biorm1 to biorm9) from the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS) that are not available in other databases. It also provides two bioclimatic classifications: Köppen–Geiger and WBCS. This dataset is expected to be a valuable resource for modeling the distribution of Mediterranean species and habitats, which are highly affected by climate change. Full article

Moroccan vegetation faces significant pressure particularly from human activities and climate change, while most ecosystems lack detailed assessments. Phytoecological studies and species assessments are implemented using vegetation sampling, analysis of climate data, geological substrate maps, and the Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The study area hosts 565 plant species distributed into 74 families, with Asteraceae being the most abundant family, representing 17.7%. In addition, the correspondence analysis test demonstrates that species are grouped into six distinct blocks. Block 1 comprises a set of Quercus ilex forests. Block 2 encompasses Juniperus phoenicea lands and transition zones between Quercus ilex and Juniperus phoenicea. Block 3 represents Pinus halepensis forests and pine occurrences within Quercus ilex and Juniperus phoenicea stands. Block 4 indicates the emergence of xerophytic species alongside the aforementioned species; it forms the upper limits of Blocks 1, 2, and 3. Block 5 corresponds to formations dominated by Juniperus thurifera in association with xerophytes. Block 6 groups together a set of xerophytic species characteristic of high mountain environments. Additionally, Quercus ilex colonizes the subhumid zones and prefers limestone substrates, Juniperus phoenicea and Tetraclinis articulata, and Pinus halepensis occupies the hot part of the semi-arid in limestone, clays, and conglomerates, while the Juniperus thurifera and xerophytes inhabit the cold parts and limestone substrates. The thermo-Mediterranean vegetation level occupies low altitudes, dominated by Tetraclinis articulata, Juniperus phoenicea, and Olea europaea. The meso-Mediterranean level extends to intermediate altitudes, dominated by Quercus ilex and Juniperus phoenicea. While the supra-Mediterranean level is dominated by Quercus ilex, Arbutus unedo, and Cistus creticus. The mountain Mediterranean level, located in the high mountains, is dominated by Juniperus thurifera associated with xerophytes. Finally, the oro-Mediterranean level, found at extreme altitudes, is dominated by xerophytes. Some species within this region are endemic, rare, and threatened. Consequently, the implementation of effective conservation and protection policies is recommended. Full article

Bioclimatic classifications provide critical insights into the relationships between climatic variables and the geographic distribution of organisms. Advances in high-resolution climate data, geobotanical integration, and spatial analysis techniques have improved the delineation of bioclimatic units, enabling more precise characterization of terrestrial ecosystems. This study characterizes the bioclimatic conditions of Jalisco, Mexico, through the identification of bioclimatic units and variants using bioclimatic indices and parameters. High-resolution climate data (1980–2018) from the CHELSA database and GIS-based spatial analysis were employed to delineate bioclimatic patterns and their correlation with climatophyllous potential vegetation. The results identified one macrobioclimate and two bioclimates—Tropical pluviseasonal (56.62%) and Tropical xeric (43.38%)—as well as two bioclimatic variants, six thermotypes, and seven ombrotypes. Notably, 49.84% of the territory exhibits bioclimatic variants, and a total of 42 isobioclimates were associated with 14 types of climatophyllous potential vegetation. These findings provide a foundation for understanding vegetation dynamics and support territorial planning and land management. The integration of remote sensing and bioclimatic analysis enhances the identification of spatial heterogeneity in climate–vegetation relationships, facilitating applications in ecological modeling, drought assessment, and conservation planning. This study contributes to ongoing research on terrestrial ecosystem functioning, aligning with current advancements in remote sensing-based environmental analysis. Full article

This article explores the impacts of climate change on the rural and natural landscapes in the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, northeastern Greece. The spatial distributions of the bioclimatic de Martonne Index and the phytoclimatic Emberger Index were calculated at a very high resolution (~500 m) for present conditions (1970–2000), two future time periods (2030–2060; 2070–2100), and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5; RCP8.5). The results show significant bioclimatic changes, especially in the Rhodope Mountain range and along almost the whole length of the Greek–Bulgarian border, where forests of high ecosystem value are located, together with the rural areas along the Evros river valley, as well as in the coastal zone of the Aegean Sea. The article describes the processes of bioclimatic changes that can significantly modify the study area’s landscapes. The study area reveals a shift toward xerothermic environments over time, with significant bioclimatic changes projected under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario. By 2100, de Martonne projections indicate that around 40% of agricultural areas in the eastern, southern, and western regions will face Mediterranean and semi-humid conditions, requiring supplemental irrigation for sustainability. The Emberger Index predicts that approximately 42% of natural and agricultural landscapes will experience sub-humid conditions with mild or cool winters. In comparison, 5% will face drier humid/sub-humid, warm winter conditions. These foreseen futures propose initial interpretations for key landscape conservation, natural capital, and ecosystem services management. Full article

A recent review of species distribution modelling (SDM) published in Earth contains much useful information. However, the introductory paragraphs lack basic information about the first SDM package called BIOCLIM, which became available in January 1984. For example, BIOCLIM-related advances underpinned the development of the most used SDM variables and data. The first SDM climate change studies published in 1988 highlighted the importance of ex situ and native distribution data. This brief note highlights the importance of the early SDM work and its continuing relevance. Full article

The sustainability of agriculture is seriously threatened by climate change. In Europe, chestnut ecosystems, which are growing mainly in Mediterranean climate, are facing during summertime increasing of heat and drought stresses. These induce fragilities on trees, leading to a reduction in productivity and predisposing them to pest and disease attacks. The plasticity of chestnut species under contrasting climate is known. Understanding the specific adaptation of cultivars to different climate features is now important to anticipating climate changes. Caucasian Region is considered the origin center of chestnut (Castanea sativa), which is characterized by climatic transition from the Mediterranean to the Euro-Siberian area. Mostly, areas of chestnut are concentrated in the countries around the Mediterranean Basin, thriving in regions with humid and Pré-Atlantic bioclimates. In Portugal, more than 95% of the chestnut area is located in the Center and North side of Portugal. This is an anisohydry species, characterized by good hydroplasticity: 90% reduction in A occurs when Ψ_wstem drops to −1.25 MPa, and a 50% reduction in A occurs at values of −1.7 MPa. The highest fatty acid contents in chestnut chloroplasts are a-linolenic acid (18:3), ranging between 40 and 50% of the total amount and being the unsaturated/saturated 2.27 for Longal. New strategies are being investigated in order to increase tolerance against those abiotic factors in chestnut species. They include the use of innovative irrigation techniques, which can increase production 22–37%. Fertilization with silicone (Si) has been investigated to promote the tolerance of plants against heat and drought stresses. Breeding programs, mostly (in Europe) against ink disease, have been performed since the middle of the XX century to create new genotypes (such the Portuguese ColUTAD^®). ClimCast, a network of orchards, was created in Portugal with the aim of responding to the new challenges facing orchards in the context of climate change. Full article

Previous studies assessing population exposure to heat stress have focused primarily on environmental heat loads without accounting for variations in human thermo–physiological responses to heat. A novel 30-year (1991–2020) human thermal bioclimate dataset, consisting of hourly mPET (modified physiologically equivalent temperature) values for diverse populations, was employed in the present study to assist in addressing this gap. Focusing on the Athens urban area (AUA), Greece, the climatology and long-term trends in acclimatization-based strong heat stress (accliSHS) experienced by average male and female adult and senior individuals during the warm period of the year (April–October) were investigated. Results showed that an average adult (senior) in AUA experienced, on average, approximately 13 (18) additional days with at least 1 h accliSHS in 2020 compared with 1991. The increasing rates per year were particularly pronounced for days with ≥6 h accliSHS, indicating a rise in the daily duration of heat stress in AUA from 1991 to 2020. Combining the variations in climate and demographics in AUA during the examined 30-year period, the long-term trends in ≥1 h accliSHS exposure for the study population types were further examined. This analysis revealed that seniors’ exposure to ≥1 h accliSHS in AUA increased by up to +153,000 person-days $\times$ year⁻¹ from 1991 to 2020. Increasing population aging was the main driver of this outcome, highlighting the urgent need for heat–health action planning in Greece. Full article

This paper presents a comprehensive revision of the dry grasslands, specifically the alliance Chrysopogono grylli-Koelerion splendentis within the order Scorzoneretalia villosae along the eastern Adriatic, aimed at developing a formalized classification of this vegetation type. The revision is based on 490 relevés, including 44 newly sampled from the loci classici of previously identified associations, alongside additional relevés from the phytosociological literature. Both hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis, as well as NMS ordination, were employed to delineate the main vegetation types. Although numerous associations have been described to date, several were found to be floristically similar and were subsequently merged. Ultimately, 15 associations and one plant community were identified, including the description of a new association, Sideritido purpureae-Asphodeletum ramosi, from Montenegro, along with four new subassociations. The associations of the Chrysopogono grylli-Koelerion splendentis predominantly occur in the sub-Mediterranean variant of the temperate bioclimate. While this study provides a comprehensive framework for the syntaxonomic diversity of this alliance, it also underscores the need for additional phytosociological data from poorly known areas within its distribution range, particularly in the southernmost regions and inland areas (e.g., Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina). Full article