Search Results (7)

Flash floods, typically triggered by natural events such as heavy rainfall, snowmelt, and dam failures, are characterized by abrupt onset, destructive power, unpredictability, and challenges in mitigation. This study investigates the spatial distribution patterns and driving mechanisms of rainstorm-induced flash flood disasters in the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin (YTRB) by integrating topography, hydrometeorology, human activity data, and historical disaster records. Through a multi-method spatial analysis framework—including kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse, spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I and Getis–Ord Gi*), and the optimal parameter geographic detector (OPGD) model (integrating univariate analysis and interaction detection)—we reveal multiscale disaster dynamics across county, township, and small catchment levels. Key findings indicate that finer spatial resolution (e.g., small catchment scale) enhances precision when identifying high-risk zones. Temporally, the number of rainstorm-induced flash floods increased significantly and disaster-affected areas expanded significantly from the 1980s to the 2010s, with a peak spatial dispersion observed during 2010–2019, reflecting a westward shift in disaster distribution. Spatial aggregation of flash floods persisted throughout the study period, concentrated in the central basin. Village density (TD) was identified as the predominant human activity factor, exhibiting nonlinear amplification through interactions with short-duration heavy rainfall (particularly 3 h [P3] and 6 h [P6] maximum precipitations) and GDP. These precipitation durations demonstrated compounding risk effects, where sustained rainfall intensity progressively heightened disaster potential. Topographic and ecological interactions, particularly between elevation (DEM) and vegetation type (VT), further modulate disaster intensity. These findings provide critical insights for risk zonation and targeted prevention strategies in high-altitude river basins. Full article

Prediction of the intensity of earthquake-induced motions at the ground surface attracts extensive attention from the geoscience community due to the significant threat it poses to humans and the built environment. Several factors are involved, including earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance, and local soil conditions. The local site effects, such as resonance amplification, topographic focusing, and basin-edge interactions, can significantly influence the amplitude–frequency content and duration of the incoming seismic waves. They are commonly predicted using site effect proxies or applying more sophisticated analytical and numerical models with advanced constitutive stress–strain relationships. The seismic excitation in numerical simulations consists of a set of input ground motions compatible with the seismo-tectonic settings at the studied location and the probability of exceedance of a specific level of ground shaking over a given period. These motions are applied at the base of the considered soil profiles, and their vertical propagation is simulated using linear and nonlinear approaches in time or frequency domains. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review of the major input parameters for site response analyses, evaluates the efficiency of site response proxies, and discusses the significance of accurate modeling approaches for predicting bedrock motion amplification. The important dynamic soil parameters include shear-wave velocity, shear modulus reduction, and damping ratio curves, along with the selection and scaling of earthquake ground motions, the evaluation of site effects through site response proxies, and experimental and numerical analysis, all of which are described in this article. Full article

Fluvial floods in coastal areas are affected by tides and storm surges, while the impact is seldom quantified because the dynamics of seawater levels are often not represented in river routing models. This study established a model framework by coupling a surge model with a global hydrodynamic model at a higher spatiotemporal resolution than previous studies so that flood processes affected by seawater level fluctuation in small river basins can be investigated. Model implementation in Zhejiang Province, China, shows that the integration of dynamic seawater levels increases the stress of flooding along the Zhejiang coasts. The ocean effect varies in space, as it is much stronger in northern Zhejiang because of the lower landform and strong tidal amplification, while the mountainous rivers in southern Zhejiang are dominated by river flow regimes. Typhoon Lekima resulted in compound flood events (i.e., rainfall-induced riverine flood, tides, and surges), during which the maximum water level at the outlet of Qiantang River was 0.80 m in the default model settings with a constant downstream seawater level (i.e., 0 m), while it increased to 2.34 m (or 2.48 m) when tides (or tides and surges) were considered. The maximum increase due to tides and surges was 2.09 m and 1.45 m, respectively, while the maximum increase did not match the time of the flood peak. This mismatching indicates the need to consider different processes in physical models rather than linearly summing up different extreme water levels (i.e., river flood, tide, and surge) found in previous studies. The model framework integrating various flow processes will help to prevent risks of compound events in coastal cities in practical and future projections under different scenarios. Full article

Many tidal influenced estuaries and coastal basins feature tidal amplification because of, e.g., convergence and reflection. Increasing amplification rates were observed in the Elbe estuary, with consequences for construction measures, nautical manoeuvring, flood protection, riverbed morphology and ecosystems. Although many studies were conducted investigating the tidal wave transformation in estuaries, studies based on spatially well-distributed empirical data covering periods over more than a year are rare. To fill this gap, a self-developed adapted harmonic analysis method of least squares was applied to hydrographs from 25 gauges, distributed over the tidal influenced estuary from the river mouth to the tidal border which is given by the weir 160 km upstream of the river mouth. The investigation period for the harmonic analyses covers a whole nodal cycle of 18.613 a beginning in the year 2000. The tidal constituents’ oscillatory behaviour including the appearance of compound tides, generated by nonlinear shallow water processes, and the formation of reflection induced partially standing waves are determined. The tidal constituents show shared frequency-group specific partial clapotis, but also have significant differences in amplification within those groups. The latter fact contributes to the detected inverse proportionality of tidal range amplification inside the estuary to incoming tidal wave height. As reflection can cause resonance in tidal influenced rivers, tests are developed to analyse whether criteria for resonance are met. To determine the system’s specific resonance frequency, a new method was introduced with the three-parameter Lorentzian curve-fitting. As the detected resonance frequency is not close to tidal frequencies, full-established resonance of the tidal wave and of the tidal constituents is not observed in the Elbe estuary. Migrating nodes of the partially standing tidal wave hint at increasing latent resonance. Full article

This paper aims to describe the seismic-driven multi-hazard scenario of the Lake Campotosto artificial basin (Abruzzo Region, Central Italy), and it can represent a preparatory study for a quantitative multi-hazard analysis. A comprehensive multi-hazard scenario considers all the effects that can occur following the base ground shaking, providing a holistic approach to assessing the real hazard potential and helping to improve management of disaster mitigation. The study area might be affected by a complex earthquake-induced chain of geologic hazards, such as the seismic shaking, the surface faulting of the Gorzano Mt. Fault, which is very close to one of the three dams that form the Lake Campotosto, and by the earthquake-triggered landslides of different sizes and typologies. These hazards were individually and qualitatively analyzed, using data from an engineering-geological survey and a geomechanical classification of the rock mass. With regard to the seismic shaking, a quantitative evaluation of the seismic response of the Poggio Cancelli valley, in the northern part of Lake Campotosto, was performed, highlighting different seismic amplification phenomena due to morphologic and stratigraphic features. Some insights about the possible multi-hazard approaches are also discussed. Full article

We use earthquake ground motion modelling via Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) and numerical simulation of seismic waves to consider the effects of site amplification and basin resonance in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia. While spectral accelerations at short periods are sensitive to near-surface conditions (i.e., $V_{S30}$ , average shear-wave velocity at topmost 30 m of soil), our results suggest that, for basins as deep as Jakarta’s, available GMPEs cannot be relied on to accurately estimate the effect of basin depth on ground motions at long periods (>3 s). Amplitudes at such long periods are influenced by trapping of seismic waves in the basin, resulting in longer duration of strong ground motion, and interference between incoming and reflected waves as well as focusing at basin edges may amplify seismic waves. In order to simulate such phenomena in detail, a basin model derived from a previous study is used as a computational domain for deterministic earthquake scenario modeling in a 2-dimensional cross-section. A $M_w$ 9.0 megathrust, a $M_w$ 6.5 crustal thrust and a $M_w$ 7.0 intraslab earthquake are chosen as scenario events that pose credible threats to Jakarta, and the interactions with the basin of seismic waves generated by these events were simulated. The highest long-period PGVs amplifications are recorded at sites near the middle of the basin and near its southern edge, with maximum amplifications of PGV in the horizontal component of 726% for the crustal, 1500% for the megathrust and 1125% for the deep intraslab earthquake scenario, respectively. We find that the levels of response spectral acceleration fall below those of the 2012 Indonesian building Codes’s design response spectra for short periods (<1 s), but closely approach or may even exceed these levels for longer periods. Full article

Seismic site effects and topographic effects related to ground motion occur during an earthquake due to site-specific geotechnical or geological characteristics, including the geological or geographical structure and the characteristics of near-surface sub-soil layers. Site-specific site effects due to geological conditions have been confirmed in recent earthquake events. Earthquake-induced damage has mainly occurred at accumulated soft soil layers under basins or along coasts and rivers. An alternative method has recently been proposed for evaluating regional seismic site effects and amplification factors using digital elevation models (DEM). High-quality DEMs at high resolutions may be employed to resolve finer-scale variations in topographic gradients and consequently, correlated site response parameters. Because there are many regions in South Korea lacking borehole datasets, which are insufficient for site classification only using borehole datasets, a DEM-based proxy for seismic zonation can be effective. Thus, in this study, geo-proxy-based site classification was proposed based on empirical correlations with site response parameters and conducted for regional zonation of seismic site effects to identify the amplification of characteristics in the western metropolitan areas of South Korea, depending on the site-specific geo-spatial conditions. Full article