Search Results (94)

This paper measures the post-treatment effects of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) on mobile money and outstanding loans from commercial banks as a percentage of the GDP in Nigeria and the Bahamas, respectively, from the perspective of financial inclusion. The literature on the topic has primarily focused on the technological specifications of CBDCs and their potential future implementation. This article addresses a gap in the empirical literature by examining the effects of CBDCs. To this end, a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is applied to the Bahamas (SandDollar) and Nigeria (eNaira) to construct a counterfactual scenario and assess the impact of CBDCs on mobile money and commercial bank loans. Nigeria’s mobile money transactions as a percentage of the GDP increased significantly compared to the synthetic control group, suggesting a notable positive effect of the eNaira. Conversely, in the Bahamas, actual performance fell below the synthetic control, implying that SandDollar may have contributed to a decline in outstanding loans. These results suggest that CBDCs could pose a “deposit substitution risk” for commercial banks. However, they may also enhance the performance of other Fintech tools, as observed in the case of mobile money. As CBDC implementations worldwide remain in their early stages, their long-term effects require further analysis. Full article

This study aims to map the scientific knowledge of bank profitability and its determinants. It identifies trends and gaps in existing research through a bibliometric analysis. To this end, 634 documents published in the Web of Science database over the last 54 years were analyzed using the bibliometric package. The results indicate an increase in the volume of publications following the 2008 financial crisis, focusing on analyzing the factors influencing bank profitability and economic growth. The Journal of Banking and Finance is the preeminent publication in this field. The literature reviewed shows that bank profitability depends on internal factors (size, credit risk, liquidity, efficiency, and management) and external factors (such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, and unemployment). In addition to the traditional determinants, the recent literature highlights the importance of innovation and technological factors such as digitalization, mobile banking, and electronic payments as relevant to bank profitability. ESG (environmental, social, and governance) and governance indicators, which are still emerging but have been extensively researched in companies, indicate a need for evidence in this area. This paper also provides relevant insights for the formulation of monetary policy and the strategic formulation of banks, helping managers and owners to improve bank performance. It also provides directions for future empirical studies and research collaborations in this field. Full article

This paper considers the impact of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) on the world’s financial systems with a special emphasis on G20 economies. Using quarterly macro-financial data for the period of 2000 to 2024, collected from the IMF, BIS, World Bank, and Atlantic Council, a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model is applied to 20 G20 countries. The results reveal significant heterogeneity across economies: CBDC shocks intensify emerging market financial instability (e.g., India, Brazil), while more digitally advanced countries (e.g., UK, Japan) experience stabilization. Retail CBDCs increase disintermediation risks in more fragile banking systems, while wholesale CBDCs improve cross-border liquidity. This article contributes to the literature by providing the first GVAR-based estimation of CBDC spillovers globally. Full article

Housing prices have recently risen sharply in many countries, primarily linked to the global credit cycle. Although various factors play a role, the ability of developing countries to navigate this cycle and maintain autonomous monetary policies is crucial. This paper introduces a dynamic macroeconomic model featuring a housing production sector within an imperfect banking framework. It captures key housing and economic dynamics in advanced and emerging economies. The analysis shows domestic liquidity policies, such as bank capital requirements, reserve ratios, and currency devaluation, can stabilize investment and production. However, their effectiveness depends on foreign interest rates and liquidity. Stabilizing housing prices and risk-free bonds is more effective in high-interest environments, while foreign liquidity shocks have asymmetric impacts. They can boost or lower the effectiveness of domestic policy, depending on the country’s level of financial development. These findings have several policy implications. For example, foreign capital controls would be adequate in the short term but not in the long term. Instead, governments would try to promote the development of local financial markets. Controlling debt should be a target for macroprudential policy as well as promoting saving instruments other than real estate, especially during low interest rates. Full article

This study examines the role of supervisory frameworks in shaping the risk management behavior of Greece’s four systemic banks during the period of 2015–2024. It explores how regulatory reforms under Capital Requirements Regulation II, Basel III, and European Central Bank oversight influenced capital adequacy, asset quality, and liquidity metrics. Employing a quantitative methodology, this study analyzes secondary data from Pillar III disclosures, annual financial reports, and supervisory statements. Key risk indicators (capital adequacy ratio, non-performing exposure ratio, liquidity coverage ratio, and risk-weighted assets) are evaluated in conjunction with regulatory interventions, such as International Financial Reporting Standards 9 transitional relief, the Hercules Asset Protection Scheme, and European Central Bank liquidity measures. The findings reveal that enhanced supervision contributed to improved resilience and regulatory compliance. International Financial Reporting Standards 9 transitional arrangements were pivotal in maintaining capital thresholds during stress periods. Supervisory flexibility and extraordinary European Central Bank support measures helped banks absorb shocks and improve risk governance. Differences across banks highlight the impact of institutional strategy on regulatory performance. This study offers a rare longitudinal assessment of supervisory influence on bank risk behavior in a high-volatility Eurozone context. Covering an entire decade (2015–2024), it uniquely links institutional strategies with evolving regulatory frameworks, including crisis-specific interventions such as International Financial Reporting Standards 9 relief and asset protection schemes. The results provide insights for policymakers and regulators on how targeted supervisory interventions and transitional mechanisms can enhance banking sector resilience during protracted crises. Full article

This study aims to analyze the determinants of bank profitability in Angola by employing panel data econometric models, specifically, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), to assess the impact of internal and external factors on the financial indicators ROE, ROA, and NIM for the period 2016 to 2023. The results reveal that credit risk, operational efficiency, and liquidity are critical determinants of banking performance. Effective credit risk management and cost optimization are essential for the sector’s stability. Banking concentration presents mixed effects, enhancing net interest income while potentially undermining efficiency. Economic growth supports profitability, whereas inflation exerts a negative influence. The COVID-19 pandemic worsened asset quality, increased credit risk, and led to a rise in non-performing loans and provisions. Reforms implemented by the National Bank of Angola have contributed to strengthening the banking system’s resilience through restructuring and regulatory improvements. The rise of digitalization and fintech presents opportunities to enhance financial inclusion and efficiency, although their success relies on advancing financial literacy. This study contributes to the literature by providing updated empirical evidence on the factors influencing bank profitability within an emerging economy’s distinctive institutional and economic context. Full article

This study examines the performance and resilience of Islamic banks during the COVID-19 pandemic, a period marked by unprecedented global economic disruption. Drawing on empirical data and a comparative analysis with conventional banking institutions, the research evaluates key financial indicators—liquidity, profitability, asset quality, and capital adequacy—to assess how Islamic banks responded to the crisis. The unique principles of Islamic finance, including risk-sharing, asset-backed financing, and the prohibition of interest and speculative activities, provide a distinct framework for crisis response. By analyzing how these features influenced bank performance during the pandemic, the study offers valuable insights into the relative robustness of Islamic versus conventional banking models. The findings contribute to the academic discourse on financial stability and risk management, offering practical implications for policymakers, regulators, and stakeholders to strengthen financial systems against future global shocks. Full article

This study investigates the impact of financial technology (Fintech) on bank stability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Utilizing panel data from 94 banks in 10 countries over a 13-year period from 2011 to 2023, this research employs panel GMM regression to examine the relationship between the level of Fintech adoption, as measured by the Fintech index, and a bank’s stability. This paper controls for bank characteristics (efficiency, profitability, size, liquidity risk, and dividend payout ratio) and macroeconomic variables (GDP growth and inflation). The Fintech index is calculated using data text mining from the banks’ annual reports. This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence of the positive effects of Fintech adoption in the MENA banking sector. The positive findings underscore the transformative impact of Fintech on banking stability, highlighting the importance of technological integration in MENA’s financial institutions for growth, stability, and effective strategies. The robustness of the results regression confirmed that our findings hold. Full article

Over the past decade, the debate on the microeconomic effects of financial inclusion has intensified, with a growing body of research exploring how access to financial services impacts banks’ behaviors. Studying the effect of financial inclusion on bank risk is crucial because it helps understand how expanding access to financial services influences exposure to bank risks. This study explores the impact of financial inclusion on credit risk, measured by non-performing loans (NPLs), and liquidity risk measured by the loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratio in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The analysis is based on a sample of 74 banks observed between 2010 and 2021, and uses the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM). To conduct a comparative analysis, the whole sample is divided into two groups: the first includes GCC countries, while the second consists of non-Gulf Cooperation Council countries (NGCC). This sensitivity analysis was justified by several economic, financial, social, and regulatory differences between these two groups of countries. The findings reveal that across the MENA region and the two sub-regions, financial inclusion significantly reduces liquidity risk. However, it increases the level of NPLs in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Furthermore, findings indicate that banks in the MENA region and the GCC countries benefit from an interaction between financial inclusion and liquidity since it significantly reduces the level of NPLs. Finally, the analysis shows that financial inclusion does not play a moderating role in the relationship between credit and liquidity risks in the NGCC countries. Full article

In the aftermath of global financial crises and amid increasing complexity in banking operations, understanding and managing various types of risk—especially liquidity, credit, and solvency risks—has become a global concern for financial stability. This study addresses a critical gap in the literature by examining the dynamic interrelationships among these three types of risk in the context of emerging markets. Using data from 21 banks listed on the Iranian capital market from 2011 to 2023, we employ a Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) alongside panel impulse response analysis to assess both short- and long-term dynamics. Our results reveal that an increase in liquidity positively impacts bank solvency, while credit risk negatively affects solvency but does not significantly influence liquidity risk. These findings contribute to the theoretical understanding of systemic risk interactions in banking and provide practical insights for policymakers and financial institutions seeking to enhance risk management strategies in volatile market environments. Full article

This study aims to rate the impact of the three major risks (credit, capital adequacy, and liquidity) on three financial performance measures (return on equity (ROE), earnings per share (EPS), and price-earnings ratio (PER)). This study stands out as one of the few in its field, and the only one focusing on banks in the Middle East and Africa, to employ the adaptive neural network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) that combines neural networks and fuzzy logic systems. The significance of this study lies in its comprehensive coverage of major risks and performance variables and its application of highly technical, sophisticated, and precise AI techniques (ANFIS). The main findings indicate that credit risk, as measured by the non-performing loans (NPL) has significant impact on both ROE and EPS. Liquidity risk comes second in importance for ROE and EPS, with the loan-deposit ratio (LDR) being the dominant component. In contrast, liquidity risk is the most significant determinant of PER, followed by capital adequacy. Our results also show that CAR, LDR, and NPL are the most significant risk components of capital adequacy, liquidity, and credit risks, respectively. The study contributes to business knowledge by applying the ANFIS technique as an accurate predictor of risk rating. Future research will explore the relationship between risks and macroeconomic indicators and differences among countries. Full article

The link between financial inclusion and financial stability is a central concern in public economic policymaking, particularly in emerging countries where access to financial services remains limited. While financial inclusion is widely regarded as a key driver of economic development, its impact on financial stability remains debated. Some studies highlight the stabilizing effect of financial inclusion, whereas others, like emphasize its potential risks. This study empirically investigates the relationship between financial inclusion and financial stability across the years 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021 in 26 African and MENA countries. The hierarchical multiple regression (HMR) method is employed to assess the independent effect of financial inclusion, controlling for macroeconomic variables. The findings reveal that financial inclusion positively contributes to financial stability through channels such as digital payments and the number of bank branches. Conversely, savings, the number of ATMs, and the money supply exhibit a negative effect on financial stability. These results underscore the need for a regulatory framework that balances financial inclusion with financial stability. In particular, cybersecurity measures must be implemented to support the expansion of digital payments, and supervisory mechanisms should be reinforced to mitigate liquidity risks. Full article

Fintech is a modern phenomenon that is transforming the banking industry through innovations that streamline financial processes and improve efficiency. The increasing adoption of disruptive technologies prompts inquiries regarding their potential to either bolster banks’ stability or expose them to various challenges and risks, including liquidity issues. Hence, this paper analyzes the effect of fintech innovations on liquidity risks in commercial banks across the six GCC countries (comprising a major financial market) during the period from 2018 to 2023. To develop a panel data methodology, we chose a sample of 26 commercial banks. The findings from our analysis indicated that (1) fintech innovations have a negative relationship with liquidity risks and (2) the size of the bank moderates the connection between fintech and liquidity risks (whereby larger banks significantly affect the relationship between fintech innovations and liquidity risks). Full article

Information asymmetry between banks and enterprises in the credit market is essentially the microfoundation of financial risk generation. The frequent occurrence of corporate debt defaults, mainly due to the behavior of short-term debt for long-term use (hereinafter referred to as “SDLU”), further aggravates the contagion path from individual liquidity crisis to systemic repayment crisis. In order to test whether bank financial technology (hereinafter referred to as “BankFintech”) can mitigate SDLU and reduce the possibility of financial risks, this study matched the loan data of China’s A-share listed companies with the patent data of bank-invented Fintech from 2013 to 2022 to construct the BankFintech Development Index for empirical analysis. The empirical results show that the development of BankFintech can significantly inhibit SDLU. The mechanism test reveals that BankFintech reduces bank credit risk and liquidity risk by lowering firms’ risk-weighted assets, improving capital adequacy and liquidity ratios, tilts banks’ lending preferences toward duration-matched long-term financing, and “forces” enterprises to take the initiative to improve their financial health and information transparency, enhance their ability to obtain long-term loans, and realize the active management of mismatch risk. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the effect is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises and technology-intensive industries. Further analysis shows that the level of enterprise digitization, the intensity of financial regulation, and related financial policies significantly moderate the marginal effect between the two. This study verified the “Porter’s Risk Mitigation Hypothesis” of Fintech, providing empirical evidence for effectively cracking the financial vulnerability caused by debt maturity mismatch and deepening financial supply-side reform. Full article

Nigerian banks encounter persistent difficulties in efficiently managing and disclosing credit and liquidity risks, considerably affecting their financial performance and shareholders’ confidence. This study, therefore, examined the effect of risk-management practices and disclosures on the financial performance of Nigerian commercial banks. The population of the study comprised 13 Nigerian commercial banks, of which 12 were purposively chosen, subject to data availability. The data explored in this study originate from World Development Indicators and the annual reports and accounts of the selected Nigerian commercial banks from 2012 to 2023. The data analysis technique used was panel regression analysis, which was further extended to the generalized method of moments in a bid to account for potential endogeneity. The study made use of EViews 12 software to analyse the data. The results reveal that liquidity risk disclosure and firm size had significant and positive effects on financial performance, while credit risk disclosure, credit risk, firm age, and leverage had significant and negative effects. This study concludes that credit risks significantly undermine commercial banks’ financial performance, as an upsurge in non-performing loans results in reduced financial performance. Conversely, effective liquidity risk disclosure characterized by transparent reporting on liquidity position was found to enhance financial performance. This study, therefore, recommends, among others, that banks should strengthen their credit risk assessment framework and enhance transparent risk reporting to improve performance and financial stability. Full article