Ecotourism, as one of the most important forms of sustainable tourism, plays a significant role in the conservation of natural resources, the economic development of local communities, and the achievement of sustainable development goals. However, the sustainable development of this sector requires the
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Ecotourism, as one of the most important forms of sustainable tourism, plays a significant role in the conservation of natural resources, the economic development of local communities, and the achievement of sustainable development goals. However, the sustainable development of this sector requires the accurate identification of suitable areas and the simultaneous assessment of the ecological capacities and limitations arising from anthropogenic activities, an issue that has received less attention at the national scale, particularly in countries with high environmental diversity such as Iran. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of assessing the potential for ecotourism development in Iran based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (SMCDA). In line with the scope of the sub-factors evaluated, the assessed construct is referred to throughout this study as Environmental–Anthropogenic Ecotourism Suitability (EAES), reflecting an environmental-quality and anthropogenic-pressure perspective rather than a comprehensive assessment of ecotourism sustainability. The main innovation of this study lies in the simultaneous integration of natural and anthropogenic factors at the national scale and the sensitivity assessment of the results through the design of different development scenarios. In this study, a set of natural sub-factors including protected areas, vegetation cover, slope, precipitation, land use, and natural attraction density, as well as anthropogenic sub-factors including settlements, roads, accommodations, mines, industrial parks, dams, power transmission lines, dust, and the Global Human Modification (GHM) index were used. The weighting of the sub-factors was carried out using the Best–Worst Method (BWM), and spatial suitability maps were subsequently generated through the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method in the GIS environment. To evaluate uncertainty and examine the effect of the relative importance of sub-factors, three scenarios including natural factor dominance, anthropogenic factor dominance, and a balanced scenario were designed and analyzed. The results showed that protected areas (0.19), vegetation cover (0.17), and natural attraction density (0.16) were the most important natural sub-factors, while the GHM index (0.16), roads (0.15), and settlements (0.14) were the most important anthropogenic sub-factors affecting ecotourism development. The spatial pattern of the results indicated the concentration of areas with good potential in the Alborz and Zagros mountain ranges, the Hyrcanian forests, and parts of the protected areas of Iran. In the balanced scenario, approximately 24.8% of Iran’s area was classified within the suitable and highly suitable classes, while 46.3% was classified within the moderately suitable class. Furthermore, comparison of the scenarios showed that the use of one-dimensional approaches may lead to unrealistic estimates of ecotourism capacity. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the sustainable development of ecotourism in Iran requires the adoption of an integrated approach in which the conservation of natural assets and the management of anthropogenic interventions are simultaneously considered. The proposed framework can serve as a decision-support tool for spatial planning, investment prioritization, and sustainable ecotourism development policymaking in Iran and other similar regions.
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