Search Results (8)

This study evaluates the ability of three machine learning methods—decision tree classifier (DTC), random forest classifier (RFC), and XGBoost classifier (XGBC)—to classify and predict tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) and non-RI over the Southwest Pacific Ocean basin (SWPO) from 1982 to 2023. Among the 324 TCs within the domain, 81 were identified as RI TCs, exhibiting a 24-h intensity increase of at least 15 ms⁻¹ at least once in their lifetime. Environmental variables used for the input matrix are extracted from the nearest grid cell corresponding to each RI and non-RI event’s geographic location and time of occurrence. Additionally, the geographic location of each event and its initial intensity positions (24-h prior) are also included in the model. The XGBC, with 10-fold cross-validation, became the optimum classifier by achieving the highest classification accuracy, as well as the lowest probability of false detection and the highest AUC score on the unseen data. The model identified the longitude of RI and non-RI events, initial intensity latitude, extent of initial intensity, and relative humidity at 850 hPa as the most important variables in the classification decision. This study will advance storm preparedness strategies for the SWPO nations through correctly predicting RI-TCs and prioritizing early prediction of contributing environmental variables. Full article

The South China Sea is in the convergence zone of the Pacific plate, the Indo-Australian plate, and the Eurasian plate. Its formation and tectonic evolution were influenced by continental margin spreading and plate interaction between the three plates and their microcontinents. It has a complex geodynamic background. To understand how continents break up to form ocean basins, the South China Sea Basin is taken as an example to study the dynamic mechanism of its formation and evolution and the driving force of seafloor spreading, so as to understand the relationship between oceanic–continental lithosphere plates. The South China Sea basin’s opening mechanism and its principal factors of control remain controversial. To explore the influence of different extension rates, we summarized the different genesis mechanisms of the South China Sea, and combined with the tectonic section of the basin, the numerical simulation was obtained based on the finite difference method. The results obtained from numerical simulations show that the rapid extension rate was one of the important factors in the asymmetric expansion of the model, with other factors such as the thickness and rheological properties of the lithosphere held constant. The lithospheric mantle continued thinning in the stress concentration area, with the crust being pulled apart before the lithospheric mantle, eventually forming an ocean basin corresponding to the east sub-basin. However, when the extension rate was low, the model expanded almost symmetrically, and the lithosphere thinning occurred at a slow rate. The simulation results confirm that, compared with the southwest sub-basin of the South China Sea, the spreading rate of the east sub-basin was even higher. We believe that the subduction of the proto-South China Sea played a crucial role in the opening of the South China Sea, providing a more reasonable mechanism. The opposite movement of the Indo-Australian plate and Kalimantan may have inhibited the formation of the southwest sub-basin of the South China Sea, resulting in a later spreading of the southwest sub-basin than the east sub-basin, as well as a lower rate of spreading than the east sub-basin. Full article

This study evaluates the ability of a random forest classifier to identify tropical cyclone (TC) intensification or weakening prior to landfall over the western region of the Southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO) basin. For both Australia mainland and SWPO island cases, when a TC first crosses land after spending ≥24 h over the ocean, the closest hour prior to the intersection is considered as the landfall hour. If the maximum wind speed (V^max) at the landfall hour increased or remained the same from the 24-h mark prior to landfall, the TC is labeled as intensifying and if the V^max at the landfall hour decreases, the TC is labeled as weakening. Geophysical and aerosol variables closest to the 24 h before landfall hour were collected for each sample. The random forest model with leave-one-out cross validation and the random oversampling example technique was identified as the best-performing classifier for both mainland and island cases. The model identified longitude, initial intensity, and sea skin temperature as the most important variables for the mainland and island landfall classification decisions. Incorrectly classified cases from the test data were analyzed by sorting the cases by their initial intensity hour, landfall hour, monthly distribution, and 24-h intensity changes. TC intensity changes near land strongly impact coastal preparations such as wind damage and flood damage mitigations; hence, this study will contribute to improve identifying and prioritizing prediction of important variables contributing to TC intensity change before landfall. Full article

In this study, 11 extreme precipitation indices were selected to examine the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin during 1960–2017. The responses of extreme precipitation indices to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of different Pacific Ocean areas were further investigated. The results show that the temperature in the Poyang Lake Basin has increased significantly since the 1990s, and the inter-decadal precipitation fluctuated. Most extreme precipitation indices showed an increasing trend with abrupt changes occurring around 1991. Spatially, most of the extreme precipitation indices decreased from northeast to southwest. The increasing trend of most indices in the center and south of the basin was relatively prominent. The linear correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and Nino 1 + 2 were the most significant. On the timescale of 2–6 years, a common oscillation period between the extreme precipitation of the basin and the four ENSO indices can be observed. After 2010, the positive correlation between the precipitation of the Poyang Lake Basin and the SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific increased significantly. Additionally, annual total wet–day precipitation in most areas of the Poyang Lake Basin increased with varying degrees in warm ENSO years. The results of this study will improve the understanding of the complex background and driving mechanism of flood disasters in the Poyang Lake Basin. Full article

This study analyzes the variability of the Choco jet (CJ) and Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) with consideration of the simultaneous Pacific interdecadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) low-frequency mean states and their effects on the atmospheric circulation and rainfall in northwestern South America and Central America for the 1900–2015 period, during the seasons with the highest intensities of the CJ (September–November (SON)) and the CLLJ (June–August). Variations in the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly positioning in the eastern Pacific, tropical North Atlantic (TNA)/Caribbean Sea during different mean states restrict the anomalous circulation, and, consequently, the intensity of the CJ and CLLJ. During the warm AMO (WAMO)/cold PDO (CPDO), the SST gradient from the tropical Pacific into the TNA, accompanied by a cyclonic circulation near the east coast of the Americas, intensifies the west–east circulation in the region, strengthening the CJ and weakening the CLLJ during SON such that rainfall increases over Colombia, Central America and in adjacent oceans. During the cold AMO (CAMO)/warm PDO (WPDO) phase, a relative east/west SST gradient occurs in TNA, consistent with a cyclonic circulation in western TNA, establishing an anomalous southwest–northwestward circulation from the eastern Pacific into the Caribbean basin, forming a well-configured CJ, increasing precipitation over Central America and its adjacent oceans. For the CLLJ, during CAMO phases, the anticyclonic circulations extended over most of the TNA favor its intensification from 30° W to the Caribbean Sea. In contrast, during WAMO, the cyclonic circulation near the east coast of the United States restricts its intensification to the Caribbean Sea region. To the best of our knowledge, the results presented here are new and might be useful in atmospheric modeling and extreme event studies. Full article

This study investigates the variation of seasonal streamflow and streamflow extremes in five catchments of the Mahaweli River Basin (MRB) Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2014, and the relationship between streamflow and seasonal rainfall in each catchment is then examined. Furthermore, the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the seasonal rainfall and streamflow in the upper (UMRB) and lower reaches (LMRB) of MRB are explored. It’s found that the rainfall amount in southwest monsoon (SWM) season contributes 29.7% out of annual total rainfall in the UMRB, while the LMRB records 41% of the total rainfall during the northeast monsoon (NEM) season. The maximum streamflow of upper (lower) Mahaweli catchments is observed in the SWM (NEM) season. Catchments in the UMRB (LMRB) recorded strong interannual variability of seasonal overall flow (Q50), Maximum 10-day, and 30-day flows during the SWM (NEM) season. It’s further revealed that the catchment streamflow in the UMRB is closely correlated with the SWM rainfall in the interannual time scale, while streamflow of catchments in the LMRB is closely associated with the NEM rainfall. The effects of ENSO and IOD on streamflow are consistent with their impacts on rainfall for all catchments in MRB, with strong seasonal dependent. These suggested that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the both Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean are important factors affecting the streamflow variability in the MRB, especially during the SWM season. Full article

Using the ERA-Interim total column ozone data, the spatial distributions of the long-term mean of the global total ozone in summer are analyzed. The results demonstrate that there are three midlatitude ozone “valleys” on earth—they are centered over the Tibetan Plateau (TIP), the Rocky Mountains (ROM), and the Southwest Pacific (SWP), respectively. The interdecadal variations of the three ozone valleys are positively modulated by the solar radiation, and the TIP ozone’s correlation with the solar radiation gets maximized with a two-year lag. The interdecadal variation of the SWP ozone valley has a significantly negative relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ). Warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) associated with the SPQ strengthen the vertical ascending motion, which dilutes the high concentration ozone at high altitudes. The interdecadal variation of the ROM ozone valley is positively correlated with the PDO, leading by three years. The ROM ozone content is also modulated by SSTAs in the Indian Ocean basin (IOB) by the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The observed regional SSTAs can exert a significant impact on the regional and even global circulation, via which the ozone content in midlatitudes also varies. Full article

Fresh samples of basalts were collected by dredging from the Nanyue intraplate seamount in the Southwest sub-basin of the South China Sea (SCS). These are alkali basalts displaying right-sloping, chondrite-normalized rare earth element (REE) profiles. The investigated basalts are characterized by low Os content (60.37–85.13 ppt) and radiogenic ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios (~0.19 to 0.21). Furthermore, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of the Nanyue basalts showed they formed during the Tortonian (~8.3 Ma) and, thus, are products of (Late Cenozoic) post-spreading volcanism. The Sr–Nd–Pb–Hf isotopic compositions of the Nanyue basalts indicate that their parental melts were derived from an upper mantle reservoir possessing the so-called Dupal isotopic anomaly. Semiquantitative isotopic modeling demonstrates that the isotopic compositions of the Nanyue basalts can be reproduced by mixing three components: the average Pacific midocean ridge basalt (MORB), the lower continental crust (LCC), and the average Hainan ocean island basalt (OIB). Our preferred hypothesis for the genesis of the Nanyue basalts is that their parental magmas were produced from an originally depleted mantle (DM) source that was much affected by the activity of the Hainan plume. Initially, the Hainan diapir caused a thermal perturbation in the upper mantle under the present-day Southwest sub-basin of the SCS that led to erosion of the overlying LCC. Eventually, the resultant suboceanic lithospheric mantle (SOLM) interacted with OIB-type components derived from the nearby Hainan plume. Collectively, these processes contributed crustal- and plume-type components to the upper mantle underlying the Southwest sub-basin of the SCS. This implies that the Dupal isotopic signature in the upper mantle beneath the SCS was an artifact of in situ geological processes rather than a feature inherited from a Southern Hemispheric, upper mantle source. Full article