Search Results (2)

Rain-fed agriculture is easily affected by meteorological disasters, especially drought. As an important factor of risk formation, actively carrying out agricultural drought vulnerability assessments is conducive to improving food security and reducing economic losses. In this study, an SE-DEA model with regional exposure and drought risk as input factors and the maize yield reduction rate and drought-affected area as output factors is established. The aim is to evaluate and zone the drought vulnerability of the maize belt in the Songliao Plain. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2019, the drought vulnerability of maize showed a fluctuating increasing trend. The vulnerability in Harbin and central Jilin Province is high, which is extremely unfavorable for maize production. (2) Comparing the historical disaster data with the drought vulnerability map generated using the SE-DEA model, it could be found that the results obtained using the SE-DEA model are reliable. (3) The Tobit model shows that the proportion of the effective irrigated area is more important to alleviate vulnerability. For drought vulnerability zoning using a cluster analysis, we suggest that regulated deficit irrigation should be actively developed in high-vulnerability areas to ensure maize yield while improving water efficiency. The results of this study can provide a basis for the development of drought mitigation and loss reduction strategies, and they provide new ideas for future research. Full article

Based on the 1965–2017 climate data of 18 meteorological stations in the Songliao Plain maize belt, the Coupled Model Intercomparision Project (CMIP5) data, and the 1998–2017 maize yield data, the drought change characteristics in the study area were analyzed by using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Mann–Kendall mutation test; furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors, drought index, and maize climate yield was determined. Finally, the maize climate yields under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios were predicted. The results revealed that: (1) from 1965 to 2017, the study area experienced increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation, and intensifying drought trends; (2) the yield of the study area showed a downward trend from 1998 to 2017. Furthermore, the climate yield was negatively correlated with temperature, positively correlated with precipitation, and positively correlated with SPEI-1 and SPEI-3; and (3) under the 1.5 °C and the 2.0 °C global warming scenarios, the temperature and the precipitation increased in the maize growing season. Furthermore, under the studied global warming scenarios, the yield changes predicted by multiple regression were −7.7% and −15.9%, respectively, and the yield changes predicted by one-variable regression were −12.2% and −21.8%, respectively. Full article