Search Results (7)

The global ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century is driving a transition towards clean energy. Accurately assessing solar energy potential necessitates high-quality observations of hourly surface solar radiation (SSR). The performance of hourly SSR data from two reanalysis products (ERA5 and MERRA-2) and three satellite-derived products (CERES, SARAH-E, and Solcast) is validated against 22 years of continuous surface observations over 96 stations across China. The accuracy (in %) and trend consistency (in % decade⁻¹) of estimates from gridded products in reproducing the diurnal cycle and trend of SSR are generally lower at sunrise and sunset than at noon, and they are also reduced in the cold season (October to next March) compared with the warm season (April to September). Regionally, accuracy is generally lower in the southwestern plateau region, and the trend consistency of most products is lowest in the rugged and cloudy southern part of China. Among the evaluated datasets, Solcast and MERRA-2 exhibit the highest accuracy and trend consistency in capturing the diurnal pattern of SSR, respectively, while CERES demonstrates the best overall performance. Full article

This work explores the effectiveness of explainable artificial intelligence in mapping solar photovoltaic power outputs based on weather data, focusing on short-term mappings. We analyzed the impact values provided by the Shapley additive explanation method when applied to two algorithms designed for tabular data—XGBoost and TabNet—and conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the overall model and across seasons. Our findings revealed that the impact of selected features remained relatively consistent throughout the year, underscoring their uniformity across seasons. Additionally, we propose a feature selection methodology utilizing the explanation values to produce more efficient models, by reducing data requirements while maintaining performance within a threshold of the original model. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology was demonstrated through its application to a residential dataset in Madeira, Portugal, augmented with weather data sourced from SolCast. Full article

Effective design of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems requires accurate meteorological data for solar irradiance, ambient temperature, and wind speed. In this study, we aim to assess the reliability of satellite-based solar resource databases such as NASA, Solcast, and PVGIS by comparing them with ground-based measurements of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from six locations in the Republic of Ireland. We compared satellite- and ground-based GHI data recorded between 2011 and 2012 and used Python-based packages to simulate solar power output for the six locations using both data types. The simulated outputs were then compared against metered power output from PV arrays at the sites. Ground-based GHI measurements demonstrate superior accuracy due to their acquisition at specific locations, offering increased spatial representativity. On the other hand, satellite GHI measurements, although reasonably accurate for many applications, cover broader regions with lower spatial resolution, leading to averaging effects that may not fully capture localized variations. This difference is reflected in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values, with ground-simulated data showing low MAPE values, indicating strong alignment with reference observations, while satellite-simulated data exhibit a slightly higher MAPE, suggesting less precise estimates despite a strong correlation with ground-based measurements. This study demonstrates the relative reliability of satellite- and ground-based GHI data for accurate solar PV system design, emphasizing the practical implications for energy planners and engineers, and providing a strong enhancement for researchers working on forecasting solar energy yields using satellite databases. The Python-based PVLib package was utilized for the simulation, offering a robust framework for modeling and analyzing solar power systems, and its effectiveness in this context is discussed in detail. Full article

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling for small, stratified tropical lakes in the Philippines and in Southeast Asia in general is not deeply explored. This study pioneers investigating the hydrodynamics of a small crater lake in the Philippines with a focus on temperature simulation using a Fantom Refined 3D model that has been tested mostly for temperate and sub-tropical lakes. The lake’s monthly temperature during the dry season served as a reference for the model’s initial condition and validation. For the simulation to proceed, input data such as weather, inflow, and bathymetry were prepared. In the absence of hourly meteorological data from local weather stations, this paper adopted the satellite weather data from Solcast. Simple correlation analysis of daily weather data between local stations and Solcast showed valid and acceptable results. Inflow values were estimated using the rational method while the stream temperature was estimated from a regression equation using air temperatures as input. The validated satellite-derived data and runoff model can therefore be employed for 3D modeling. The simulations resulted in extremely higher temperatures compared with those observed when using previous default model settings. Direct modifications were then applied to weather parameters, compromising their integrity but resulting in reasonable profiles. By adding scaling factors to heat flux equations and multiplying their components by 0.75 (shortwave), 1.35 (longwave), 0.935 (air temperature), and 0.80 (wind), better results were achieved. This study identifies several challenges in performing 3D hydrodynamic modeling, such as paucity in input hydro-meteorologic and limnologic data and the need for heat flux model improvement. Overall, this study was successful in employing 3D hydrodynamic modeling in a tropical lake, which can pave directions and serve as an excellent reference for future modeling in the same region. Full article

This study calibrated and compared the capabilities of hourly global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models for six Moroccan locations, using the McClear clear sky model as a reference. Complex clear sky models, namely Bird, Simplified Solis, Ineichen and Perez, and simple clear sky models, namely Adnot–Bourges–Campana–Gicquel (ABCG), Berger–Duffie, and Haurwitz were tested. The SOLCAST satellite-based dataset estimates were validated against the McClear clear sky model. pvlib python was used to configure the models, and ERA5 hourly fractional cloud cover was used to identify clear-sky days. The study period was from 2014 to 2021, and the study sites were in different climatic regions in Morocco. Bar graphs, tables, and quantitative statistical metrics, namely relative mean bias error (rMBE), relative root mean square error (rRMSE), relative mean absolute error (rMAE), and the coefficient of determination (R²), were used to quantify the skill of the clear sky model at different sites. The overall rMBE was negative in 5/6 sites, indicating consistent overestimation of GHI, and positive in Tantan (14.4%), indicating frequent underestimation of GHI. The overall rRMSE varied from 6 to 22%, suggesting strong agreement between clear sky models and the McClear clear sky model. The overall correlation was greater than 0.96, indicating a very strong relationship. Overall, the Bird clear sky model proved to be the most feasible. Complex clear sky models outperformed simple clear sky models. The SOLCAST satellite-based dataset and ERA5 cloud fraction information could well be used with quantifiable certainty as an accurate clear sky model in the study region and in other areas where complex clear sky models’ inputs are not available. Full article

The study compares the performance of satellite-based datasets and the Ångström–Prescott (AP) model in estimating the daily global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for stations in South Africa. The daily GHI from four satellites (namely SOLCAST, CAMS, NASA SSE, and CMSAF SARAH) and the Ångström–Prescott (AP) model are evaluated by validating them against ground observation data from eight radiometric stations located in all six macro-climatological regions of South Africa, for the period 2014-19. The evaluation is carried out under clear-sky, all-sky, and overcast-sky conditions. CLAAS-2 cloud fractional coverage data are used to determine clear and overcast sky days. The observed GHI data are first quality controlled using the Baseline Surface Radiation Network methodology and then quality control of the HelioClim model. The traditional statistical benchmarks, namely the relative mean bias error (rMBE), relative root mean square error (rRMSE), relative mean absolute error (rMAE), and the coefficient of determination (R²) provided information about the performance of the datasets. Under clear skies, the estimated datasets showed excellent performance with maximum rMBE, rMAE, and rRMSE less than 6.5% and a minimum R² of 0.97. In contrast, under overcast-sky conditions there was noticeably poor performance with maximum rMBE (24%), rMAE (29%), rRMSE (39%), and minimum R2 (0.74). For all-sky conditions, good correlation was found for SOLCAST (0.948), CMSAF (0.948), CAMS (0.944), and AP model (0.91); all with R2 over 0.91. The maximum rRMSE for SOLCAST (10%), CAMS (12%), CMSAF (12%), and AP model (11%) was less than 13%. The maximum rMAE for SOLCAST (7%), CAMS (8%), CMSAF (8%), and AP model (9%) was less than 10%, showing good performance. While the R2 correlations for the NASA SSE satellite-based GHI were less than 0.9 (0.896), the maximum rRMSE was 18% and the maximum rMAE was 15%, showing rather poor performance. The performance of the SOLCAST, CAMS, CMSAF, and AP models was almost the same in the study area. CAMS, CMSAF, and AP models are viable, freely available datasets for estimating the daily GHI at South African locations with quantitative certainty. The relatively poor performance of the NASA SSE datasets in the study area could be attributed to their low spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° (~55 km × 55 km). The feasibility of the datasets decreased significantly as the proportion of sky that was covered by clouds increased. The results of the study could provide a basis/data for further research to correct biases between in situ observations and the estimated GHI datasets using machine learning algorithms. Full article

This study validates the hourly satellite based and reanalysis based global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for sites in South Africa. Hourly GHI satellite based namely: SOLCAST, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), and Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CMSAF SARAH) and two reanalysis based, namely, fifth generation European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) were assessed by comparing in situ measured data from 13 South African Weather Service radiometric stations, located in the country’s six macro climatological regions, for the period 2013–2019. The in situ data were first quality controlled using the Baseline Surface Radiation Network methodology. Data visualization and statistical metrics relative mean bias error (rMBE), relative root mean square error (rRMSE), relative mean absolute error (rMAE), and the coefficient of determination (R²) were used to evaluate the performance of the datasets. There was very good correlation against in situ GHI for the satellite based GHI, all with R² above 0.95. The R² correlations for the reanalysis based GHI were less than 0.95 (0.931 for ERA5 and 0.888 for MERRA2). The satellite and reanalysis based GHI showed a positive rMBE (SOLCAST 0.81%, CAMS 2.14%, CMSAF 2.13%, ERA5 1.7%, and MERRA2 11%), suggesting consistent overestimation over the country. SOLCAST satellite based GHI showed the best rRMSE (14%) and rMAE (9%) combinations. MERRA2 reanalysis based GHI showed the weakest rRMSE (37%) and rMAE (22%) combinations. SOLCAST satellite based GHI showed the best overall performance. When considering only the freely available datasets, CAMS and CMSAF performed better with the same overall rMBE (2%), however, CAMS showed slightly better rRMSE (16%), rMAE (10%), and R² (0.98) combinations than CMSAF rRMSE (17%), rMAE (11%), and R² (0.97). CAMS and CMSAF are viable freely available data sources for South African locations. Full article