Search Results (5)

Transboundary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Southeast Asia is commonly assessed using static source–receptor frameworks or descriptive associations that may not resolve how directional dependence changes through time under shifting meteorological conditions. This study examines regional PM2.5 as a time-varying, meteorology-adjusted directional coupling system using monthly data for 2003–2024 from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) meteorological covariates, climate controls, and administrative aggregation. Using a rolling-window directed network framework based on Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) causal discovery, we inferred lagged conditional-dependence networks from covariate-adjusted PM2.5 anomalies and summarized their structure at national and first-order administrative levels. The inferred network structure varies over time but retains measurable continuity across rolling windows. At the country level, cross-border links consistently account for a large share of the directed structure, indicating that PM2.5 variability within the study domain is strongly shaped by transboundary coupling rather than by country-contained dynamics alone. A recurrent backbone of country-level directional coupling corridors emerges, including persistent links among China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand. At the first administrative level, stable gateways and receptor basins become more evident, especially the bidirectional coupling corridor between Yunnan Province, China, and Shan State, Myanmar, which appears throughout the full window sequence. These results show that subnational structure can reveal transport-relevant coupling patterns that national summaries may conceal. The framework provides an interpretable basis for corridor-oriented monitoring and regime-aware early warning, while the inferred links should be interpreted as directional statistical dependence rather than direct emissions attribution or resolved physical transport pathways. Full article

Groundwater level (GWL) variations in the arid regions of Northwest China are driven by both natural processes and human activities. Identifying causal links between hydrological variables is fundamental to understanding groundwater evolution and conducting dynamic simulations. This study integrates the Mann–Kendall test, Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess, and the Peter and Clark Momentum-threshold and Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) causal inference to analyze GWL variation characteristics and causal response processes across seven sub-basins in the Tarim Basin using multi-source remote sensing data. Results show an overall decline in GWL, primarily in the north-central part of the basin, with the Kaidu–Konqi River Basin reaching a maximum rate of 0.51 m/year. The trend components reveal localized depletion alongside broad stability, while seasonal components exhibit three types of temporal shifts in fluctuations. A mismatch exists between the prevalence of environmental influences and their causal strength. Daytime land surface temperature (LST_D), surface runoff (RO), and evapotranspiration (ET) show the highest detection frequencies, yet volumetric soil water in layers 2 (SWVL₂) and RO exhibit the largest ranges in strength and drive variations at specific sites. Response times are asymmetric. Negative effects from ET on GWL transmit quickly, while positive recovery is slow. Conversely, positive recharge from volumetric soil water in layer 1 (SWVL₁) is faster than its negative lag. At the basin scale, surface processes recharge GWL while mediating indirect influences from other variables. Climate and agricultural irrigation act as direct sinks. Depending on local conditions, three regional patterns emerge: direct climate-driven depletion, obstructed shallow water retention, and indirect compensation from agricultural water use. Causal networks indicate that RO and SWVL₁ have the highest centrality and dominate water output, whereas SWVL₂ acts as a passive receiver. Pathways from the surface to GWL are also asymmetric. The most frequent path involves step-by-step infiltration along RO → ET → SWVL₁ → SWVL₂ → GWL. In contrast, the paths with the highest cumulative strength are shorter and faster, specifically RO → ET → GWL and RO → SWVL₁ → GWL. The identified pathways and lag parameters provide a direct basis for groundwater dynamic modeling and water resource management in the basin. Full article

The causal relationship between vegetation and temperature serves as a driving factor for global warming in the climate system. However, causal relationships are typically characterized by complex facets, particularly within natural systems, necessitating the ongoing development of robust approaches capable of addressing the challenges inherent in causality analysis. Various causality approaches offer distinct perspectives on understanding causal structures, even when experiments are meticulously designed with a specific target. Here, we use the complex vegetation–climate interaction to demonstrate some of the many facets of causality analysis by applying three different causality frameworks including (i) the kernel Granger causality (KGC), a nonlinear extension of the Granger causality (GC), to understand the nonlinearity in the vegetation–climate causal relationship; (ii) the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence (PCMCI), which combines the Peter and Clark (PC) algorithm with the momentary conditional independence (MCI) approach to distinguish the feedback and coupling signs in vegetation–climate interaction; and (iii) the Liang–Kleeman information flow (L-K IF), a rigorously formulated causality formalism based on the Liang–Kleeman information flow theory, to reveal the causal influence of vegetation on the evolution of temperature variability. The results attempt to capture a fuller understanding of the causal interaction of leaf area index (LAI) on air temperature (T) during 1981–2018, revealing the characteristics and differences in distinct climatic tipping point regions, particularly in terms of nonlinearity, feedback signals, and variability sources. This study demonstrates that realizing a more holistic causal structure of complex problems like the vegetation–climate interaction benefits from the combined use of multiple models that shed light on different aspects of its causal structure, thus revealing novel insights that are missing when we rely on one single approach. This prompts the need to move toward a multimodel causality analysis that could reduce biases and limitations in causal interpretations. Full article

The vegetation and ecosystem in the source region of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River (SRYY) are fragile. Affected by climate change, extreme droughts are frequent and permafrost degradation is serious in this area. It is very important to quantify the drought–vegetation interaction in this area under the influence of climate–permafrost coupling. In this study, based on the saturated vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture (SM) that characterize atmospheric and soil drought, as well as the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) that characterize vegetation greenness and function, the evolution of regional vegetation productivity and drought were systematically identified. On this basis, the technical advantages of the causal discovery algorithm Peter–Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) were applied to distinguish the response of vegetation to VPD and SM. Furthermore, this study delves into the response mechanisms of NDVI and SIF to atmospheric and soil drought, considering different vegetation types and permafrost degradation areas. The findings indicated that low SM and high VPD were the limiting factors for vegetation growth. The positive and negative causal effects of VPD on NDVI accounted for 47.88% and 52.12% of the total area, respectively. Shrubs were the most sensitive to SM, and the response speed of grassland to SM was faster than that of forest land. The impact of SM on vegetation in the SRYY was stronger than that of VPD, and the effect in the frozen soil degradation area was more obvious. The average causal effects of NDVI and SIF on SM in the frozen soil degradation area were 0.21 and 0.41, respectively, which were twice as high as those in the whole area, and SM dominated NDVI (SIF) changes in 62.87% (76.60%) of the frozen soil degradation area. The research results can provide important scientific basis and theoretical support for the scientific assessment and adaptation of permafrost, vegetation, and climate change in the source area and provide reference for ecological protection in permafrost regions. Full article

The analysis of the Earth system and interactions among its spheres is increasingly important to improve the understanding of global environmental change. In this regard, Earth observation (EO) is a valuable tool for monitoring of long term changes over the land surface and its features. Although investigations commonly study environmental change by means of a single EO-based land surface variable, a joint exploitation of multivariate land surface variables covering several spheres is still rarely performed. In this regard, we present a novel methodological framework for both, the automated processing of multisource time series to generate a unified multivariate feature space, as well as the application of statistical time series analysis techniques to quantify land surface change and driving variables. In particular, we unify multivariate time series over the last two decades including vegetation greenness, surface water area, snow cover area, and climatic, as well as hydrological variables. Furthermore, the statistical time series analyses include quantification of trends, changes in seasonality, and evaluation of drivers using the recently proposed causal discovery algorithm Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI). We demonstrate the functionality of our methodological framework using Indo-Gangetic river basins in South Asia as a case study. The time series analyses reveal increasing trends in vegetation greenness being largely dependent on water availability, decreasing trends in snow cover area being mostly negatively coupled to temperature, and trends of surface water area to be spatially heterogeneous and linked to various driving variables. Overall, the obtained results highlight the value and suitability of this methodological framework with respect to global climate change research, enabling multivariate time series preparation, derivation of detailed information on significant trends and seasonality, as well as detection of causal links with minimal user intervention. This study is the first to use multivariate time series including several EO-based variables to analyze land surface dynamics over the last two decades using the causal discovery algorithm PCMCI. Full article