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Keywords = Lundberg’s inequality

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27 pages, 939 KiB  
Article
Equity Cost Induced Dichotomy for Optimal Dividends with Capital Injections in the Cramér-Lundberg Model
by Florin Avram, Dan Goreac, Juan Li and Xiaochi Wu
Mathematics 2021, 9(9), 931; https://doi.org/10.3390/math9090931 - 22 Apr 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2294
Abstract
We investigate a control problem leading to the optimal payment of dividends in a Cramér-Lundberg-type insurance model in which capital injections incur proportional cost, and may be used or not, the latter resulting in bankruptcy. For general claims, we provide verification results, using [...] Read more.
We investigate a control problem leading to the optimal payment of dividends in a Cramér-Lundberg-type insurance model in which capital injections incur proportional cost, and may be used or not, the latter resulting in bankruptcy. For general claims, we provide verification results, using the absolute continuity of super-solutions of a convenient Hamilton-Jacobi variational inequality. As a by-product, for exponential claims, we prove the optimality of bounded buffer capital injections (a,0,b) policies. These policies consist in stopping at the first time when the size of the overshoot below 0 exceeds a certain limit a, and only pay dividends when the reserve reaches an upper barrier b. An exhaustive and explicit characterization of optimal couples buffer/barrier is given via comprehensive structure equations. The optimal buffer is shown never to be of de Finetti (a=0) or Shreve-Lehoczy-Gaver (a=) type. The study results in a dichotomy between cheap and expensive equity, based on the cost-of-borrowing parameter, thus providing a non-trivial generalization of the Lokka-Zervos phase-transition Løkka-Zervos (2008). In the first case, companies start paying dividends at the barrier b*=0, while in the second they must wait for reserves to build up to some (fully determined) b*>0 before paying dividends. Full article
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23 pages, 459 KiB  
Article
Discrete-Time Risk Models with Claim Correlated Premiums in a Markovian Environment
by Dhiti Osatakul and Xueyuan Wu
Risks 2021, 9(1), 26; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9010026 - 14 Jan 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3427
Abstract
In this paper we consider a discrete-time risk model, which allows the premium to be adjusted according to claims experience. This model is inspired by the well-known bonus-malus system in the non-life insurance industry. Two strategies of adjusting periodic premiums are considered: aggregate [...] Read more.
In this paper we consider a discrete-time risk model, which allows the premium to be adjusted according to claims experience. This model is inspired by the well-known bonus-malus system in the non-life insurance industry. Two strategies of adjusting periodic premiums are considered: aggregate claims or claim frequency. Recursive formulae are derived to compute the finite-time ruin probabilities, and Lundberg-type upper bounds are also derived to evaluate the ultimate-time ruin probabilities. In addition, we extend the risk model by considering an external Markovian environment in which the claims distributions are governed by an external Markov process so that the periodic premium adjustments vary when the external environment state changes. We then study the joint distribution of premium level and environment state at ruin given ruin occurs. Two numerical examples are provided at the end of this paper to illustrate the impact of the initial external environment state, the initial premium level and the initial surplus on the ruin probability. Full article
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18 pages, 855 KiB  
Article
Martingale Approach to Derive Lundberg-Type Inequalities
by Tautvydas Kuras, Jonas Sprindys and Jonas Šiaulys
Mathematics 2020, 8(10), 1742; https://doi.org/10.3390/math8101742 - 11 Oct 2020
Viewed by 2418
Abstract
In this paper, we find the upper bound for the tail probability Psupn0I=1nξI>x with random summands ξ1,ξ2, having light-tailed distributions. We find conditions under [...] Read more.
In this paper, we find the upper bound for the tail probability Psupn0I=1nξI>x with random summands ξ1,ξ2, having light-tailed distributions. We find conditions under which the tail probability of supremum of sums can be estimated by quantity ϱ1exp{ϱ2x} with some positive constants ϱ1 and ϱ2. For the proof we use the martingale approach together with the fundamental Wald’s identity. As the application we derive a few Lundberg-type inequalities for the ultimate ruin probability of the inhomogeneous renewal risk model. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Probability)
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17 pages, 711 KiB  
Article
The Exponential Estimate of the Ultimate Ruin Probability for the Non-Homogeneous Renewal Risk Model
by Edita Kizinevič and Jonas Šiaulys
Risks 2018, 6(1), 20; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks6010020 - 8 Mar 2018
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 4058
Abstract
In this work, the non-homogeneous risk model is considered. In such a model, claims and inter-arrival times are independent but possibly non-identically distributed. The easily verifiable conditions are found such that the ultimate ruin probability of the model satisfies the exponential estimate [...] Read more.
In this work, the non-homogeneous risk model is considered. In such a model, claims and inter-arrival times are independent but possibly non-identically distributed. The easily verifiable conditions are found such that the ultimate ruin probability of the model satisfies the exponential estimate exp { ϱ u } for all values of the initial surplus u 0 . Algorithms to estimate the positive constant ϱ are also presented. In fact, these algorithms are the main contribution of this work. Sharpness of the derived inequalities is illustrated by several numerical examples. Full article
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