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Keywords = Lesser Antilles

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19 pages, 4285 KiB  
Article
Future Expansion of Sterculia foetida L. (Malvaceae): Predicting Invasiveness in a Changing Climate
by Heba Bedair, Harish Chandra Singh, Ahmed R. Mahmoud and Mohamed M. El-Khalafy
Forests 2025, 16(6), 912; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16060912 - 29 May 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 671
Abstract
Sterculia foetida L., commonly known as the Java olive, is a tropical tree species native to regions of East Africa, tropical Asia, and northern Australia. This study employs species distribution modeling (SDM) to predict the potential geographic distribution of S. foetida under current [...] Read more.
Sterculia foetida L., commonly known as the Java olive, is a tropical tree species native to regions of East Africa, tropical Asia, and northern Australia. This study employs species distribution modeling (SDM) to predict the potential geographic distribution of S. foetida under current and future climate scenarios. Using 1425 occurrence data and 19 environmental variables, we applied an ensemble modelling approach of three algorithms: Boosting Regression Trees (BRT), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), and Random Forests (RF), to generate distribution maps. Our models showed high accuracy (mean AUC = 0.98) to indicate that S. foetida has a broad ecological niche, with high suitability in tropical and subtropical regions of north Australia (New Guinea and Papua), Southeast Asia (India, Thailand, Myanmar, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Sri Lanka), Oman and Yemen in the southwest of Asia, Central Africa (Guinea, Ghana, Nigeria, Congo, Kenya and Tanzania), the Greater and Lesser Antilles, Mesoamerica, and the north of South America (Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil). Indeed, the probability of occurrence of S. foetida positively correlates with the Maximum temperature of warmest month (bio5), Mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8) and Precipitation of wettest month (bio13). The model results showed a suitability area of 4,744,653 km2, representing 37.86% of the total study area, classified into Low (14.12%), Moderate (8.71%), and High suitability (15.02%). Furthermore, the study found that habitat suitability for S. foetida showed similar trends under both near future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for 2041–2060), with a slight loss in potential distribution (0.24% and 0.25%, respectively) and moderate gains (1.98% and 2.12%). In the far future (2061–2080), the low scenario (SSP1-2.6) indicated a 0.29% loss and a 2.52% gain, while the high scenario (SSP5-8.5) showed a more dramatic increase in both loss (0.6%) and gain areas (3.79%). These findings are crucial for conservation planning and management, particularly in regions where S. foetida is considered invasive and could become problematic. The study underscores the importance of incorporating climate change projections in SDM to better understand species invasiveness dynamics and inform biodiversity conservation strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Ecology and Management)
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21 pages, 8701 KiB  
Article
Origin and Diversification of the Genera Aratinga, Eupsittula, and Psittacara (Aves: Psittacidae)
by Gabriela Padilla-Jacobo, Tiberio Cesar Monterrubio-Rico, Horacio Cano-Camacho and María Guadalupe Zavala-Páramo
Diversity 2025, 17(3), 155; https://doi.org/10.3390/d17030155 - 25 Feb 2025
Viewed by 689
Abstract
The arrival of psittacine in North America is well known but undefined. It is widely accepted that these birds originated in South America, and it has been suggested that different factors have promoted the biodiversity of birds in Mexico. However, in general, for [...] Read more.
The arrival of psittacine in North America is well known but undefined. It is widely accepted that these birds originated in South America, and it has been suggested that different factors have promoted the biodiversity of birds in Mexico. However, in general, for North American psittacine, there are no proposed divergence times, and the possible influence of different geological events on these processes is unknown. In this study, phylogenetic relationships, divergence times, and ancestral areas of the genera Aratinga, Eupsittula, and Psittacara and related genera were estimated to propose hypotheses of the origin, diversification, and dispersal of groups under a Bayesian inference framework based on mitochondrial molecular markers. Of seven monophyletic clades within the Arini tribe, four coincided with the genera Psittacara, Eupsittula, Rhynchopsitta, and Pyrrhura, while Aratinga was grouped with Conuropsis and Cyanopsitta. Diversification of the analyzed genera probably occurred during the Miocene and around the Miocene–Pliocene boundary. The results suggest that the most likely origin of these genera is the Amazonian or Chaco regions. The diversification of these groups seems to be related to geoclimatic events associated with the uplift of the central and northern portions of the Andes and the closure of the Isthmus of Panama. We propose routes from south to north in the Neotropics and the use of the Greater and Lesser Antilles as a northward path. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Phylogeny and Evolution)
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19 pages, 6224 KiB  
Article
Implications of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Spatial–Temporal Variability on Flood Hazard Assessments in the Caribbean Lesser Antilles
by Catherine Nabukulu, Victor. G. Jetten and Janneke Ettema
GeoHazards 2024, 5(4), 1275-1293; https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5040060 - 29 Nov 2024
Viewed by 1522
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) significantly impact the Caribbean Lesser Antilles, often causing severe wind and water damage. Traditional flood hazard assessments simplify TC rainfall as single-peak, short-duration events tied to specific return periods, overlooking the spatial–temporal variability in rainfall that TCs introduce. To address [...] Read more.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) significantly impact the Caribbean Lesser Antilles, often causing severe wind and water damage. Traditional flood hazard assessments simplify TC rainfall as single-peak, short-duration events tied to specific return periods, overlooking the spatial–temporal variability in rainfall that TCs introduce. To address this limitation, a new user-friendly tool incorporates spatial–temporal rainfall variability into TC-related flood hazard assessments. The tool utilizes satellite precipitation data to break down TC-associated rainfall into distinct pathways/scenarios, mapping them to ground locations and linking them to specific sections of the storm’s rainfall footprint. This approach demonstrates how different areas can be affected differently by the same TC. In this study, we apply the tool to evaluate rainfall patterns and flood hazards in St. George’s, Grenada, during Hurricane Beryl in 2024. The scenario representing the 75th quantile in Spatial Region 2 (S2-Q0.75) closely matched the actual rainfall observed in the study area. By generating multiple hazard maps based on various rainfall scenarios, the tool provides decision-makers with valuable insights into the multifaced flood hazard risks posed by a single TC. Ultimately, island communities can enhance their early warning and mitigation strategies for TC impacts. Full article
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10 pages, 912 KiB  
Article
Exploring the Potential of Morphometrics to Inform the Conservation of Iguana delicatissima
by Matthijs P. van den Burg, Jeroen Kappelhof, Adam Mitchell and Adolphe O. Debrot
Conservation 2024, 4(4), 617-626; https://doi.org/10.3390/conservation4040038 - 1 Nov 2024
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1193
Abstract
Invasive alien species severely impact native and endemic species, disproportionately affecting insular species like Caribbean reptiles. The Lesser Antillean iguana, Iguana delicatissima, is rapidly declining due to hybridization with non-native green iguanas (NNGIs). With numerous NNGI populations present in the region, the [...] Read more.
Invasive alien species severely impact native and endemic species, disproportionately affecting insular species like Caribbean reptiles. The Lesser Antillean iguana, Iguana delicatissima, is rapidly declining due to hybridization with non-native green iguanas (NNGIs). With numerous NNGI populations present in the region, the last I. delicatisisma-inhabited islands remain highly susceptible to invasion, whereupon the rapid in situ differentiation of NNGIs is essential. However, currently only few scale and coloration characters allow the in situ identification of NNGIs. Here, we assessed the differentiating power of an additional 20 meristic and length-dependent characteristics between the I. delicatissima population on St. Eustatius and the NNGI population on St. Maarten, the main source of NNGIs arriving on St. Eustatius. Of these, 13 significantly differed between I. delicatissima and NNGIs, with a ≥94% assignment accuracy in multi-variate predictive models. We recommend that these characteristics be assessed and validated, especially for hybrid individuals, allowing the identification of NNGIs even in populations where hybridization is ongoing. Our work demonstrates the value of investing in baseline morphometric datasets for I. delicatissima and other native iguanas to aid in the rapid in situ detection of NNGIs for removal. Full article
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9 pages, 2092 KiB  
Communication
First Record of Kemp’s Ridley Sea Turtle, Lepidochelys kempii (Garman, 1880), in the Waters of Martinique Island (Lesser Antilles)
by Damien Chevallier, Jacques Fretey, Jean Lescure and Marc Girondot
Animals 2024, 14(4), 596; https://doi.org/10.3390/ani14040596 - 11 Feb 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2930
Abstract
An adult female Lepidochelys kempii was found trapped in drifting sargassum south of Martinique; this is the southernmost report of this taxon in the Lesser Antilles arc. Determining the limits of distribution and the existence of possible sympatry between L. kempii and L. [...] Read more.
An adult female Lepidochelys kempii was found trapped in drifting sargassum south of Martinique; this is the southernmost report of this taxon in the Lesser Antilles arc. Determining the limits of distribution and the existence of possible sympatry between L. kempii and L. olivacea in certain subregions of the Caribbean has been hindered by numerous misidentifications. We review the available data and propose a new distribution map in the Caribbean, which can serve as a basis for future studies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Herpetology)
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17 pages, 1139 KiB  
Article
On a Remarkable New Genus and Species of Alpheid Shrimps (Malacostraca: Decapoda: Caridea) from the Tropical Western Atlantic
by Arthur Anker
Arthropoda 2023, 1(4), 398-414; https://doi.org/10.3390/arthropoda1040016 - 18 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1906
Abstract
Synalpheopsis gen. nov. is established for a remarkable new alpheid species, Synalpheopsis laureae sp. nov., presently known only from the male holotype collected at 111–162 m east of La Désirade, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles. Synalpheopsis gen. nov. peculiarly combines features of two genera, Alpheopsis [...] Read more.
Synalpheopsis gen. nov. is established for a remarkable new alpheid species, Synalpheopsis laureae sp. nov., presently known only from the male holotype collected at 111–162 m east of La Désirade, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles. Synalpheopsis gen. nov. peculiarly combines features of two genera, Alpheopsis Coutière, 1897 and Synalpheus Spence Bate, 1888; however, it is presumably closer to the former genus. The new genus is characterised by the moderately developed orbital hoods, well-developed rostrum and orbital teeth, sixth pleonite without articulated flap, tip of the third maxilliped with crown of spiniform setae, chelipeds with two strong teeth on distolateral margin and lacking snapping mechanism on finger cutting edges, and gill formula without mastigobranchs and setobranchs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Alpha-Level Taxonomy of Decapod Crustaceans)
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12 pages, 1005 KiB  
Article
High Genetic Diversity and Structure of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides s.l. in the Archipelago of Lesser Antilles
by Pauline Dentika, Jean-Marc Blazy, Angela Alleyne, Dalila Petro, Anderson Eversley and Laurent Penet
J. Fungi 2023, 9(6), 619; https://doi.org/10.3390/jof9060619 - 27 May 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1848
Abstract
Colletotrichum gloeosporioides is a species complex of agricultural importance as it causes anthracnose disease on many crop species worldwide, and strong impact regionally on Water Yam (Dioscorea alata) in the Caribbean. In this study, we conducted a genetic analysis of the [...] Read more.
Colletotrichum gloeosporioides is a species complex of agricultural importance as it causes anthracnose disease on many crop species worldwide, and strong impact regionally on Water Yam (Dioscorea alata) in the Caribbean. In this study, we conducted a genetic analysis of the fungi complex in three islands of the Lesser Antilles—Guadeloupe (Basse Terre, Grande Terre and Marie Galante), Martinique and Barbados. We specifically sampled yam fields and assessed the genetic diversity of strains with four microsatellite markers. We found a very high genetic diversity of all strains on each island, and intermediate to strong levels of genetic structure between islands. Migration rates were quite diverse either within (local dispersal) or between islands (long-distance dispersal), suggesting important roles of vegetation and climate as local barriers, and winds as an important factor in long-distance migration. Three distinct genetic clusters highlighted different species entities, though there was also evidence of frequent intermediates between two clusters, suggesting recurrent recombination between putative species. Together, these results demonstrated asymmetries in gene flow both between islands and clusters, and suggested the need for new approaches to anthracnose disease risk control at a regional level. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Molecular and Genetic Diversity in Plant-Pathogenic Fungi)
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4 pages, 213 KiB  
Communication
Urgent International Action Needed to Tackle Illegal Pet Trade in Caribbean Iguana Populations
by Matthijs P. van den Burg, Isabel M. Vique Bosquet and Jennifer C. Daltry
Conservation 2022, 2(2), 244-247; https://doi.org/10.3390/conservation2020016 - 12 Apr 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3191
Abstract
Lizards in the Neotropical genus Iguana are heavily traded for the international pet trade, with unusual colour morphs and rare species commanding high prices. Recent research aimed to understand the taxonomy and phenotypic variation of Iguana in the Lesser Antilles, with those populations [...] Read more.
Lizards in the Neotropical genus Iguana are heavily traded for the international pet trade, with unusual colour morphs and rare species commanding high prices. Recent research aimed to understand the taxonomy and phenotypic variation of Iguana in the Lesser Antilles, with those populations now severely threatened by this trade. Although the entire Iguana genus has been on the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) Appendix II since 1977, current levels of trade regulation are proving to be inadequate for the Caribbean Iguana populations, which are declining. This paper presents the case for immediately halting regional commercial trade to safeguard the most vulnerable island populations. We further provide recommendations for trade regulations of other species complexes where the nomenclature used in legislation and the trade industry fall temporarily out of step with new taxonomic changes. Full article
13 pages, 10584 KiB  
Article
Defining Fragmentation Patterns of Archaeological Bone Remains without Typologies: A Landmark-Based Approach on Rodent Mandibula
by Marine Durocher, Sandrine Grouard, Violaine Nicolas, Renan Maestri and Allowen Evin
Quaternary 2022, 5(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/quat5010014 - 2 Mar 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 4926
Abstract
Fragmentation is a recurring feature of archaeological faunal material, and impacts many aspects of zooarchaeological studies from taxonomical identification to biometric studies. It can result from anthropic and natural actions that occurred respectively before and/or after bone deposit. While several bone fragmentation typologies [...] Read more.
Fragmentation is a recurring feature of archaeological faunal material, and impacts many aspects of zooarchaeological studies from taxonomical identification to biometric studies. It can result from anthropic and natural actions that occurred respectively before and/or after bone deposit. While several bone fragmentation typologies have been described, they are currently based on both macroscopic observations and researcher subjectivity and lack the universality necessary for inter-study comparisons. To fulfill this need we present a standardized landmark-based protocol for the description and quantification of mandibular fragmentation patterns, using two insular rodents of different sizes as models. The rice rats (Oryzomyini tribe) and the agouti (Dasyprocta) from the Lesser Antilles were abundant during the pre-Columbian Ceramic Age (500 BCE-1500 CE). Their mandibles’ shapes were quantified using the coordinates of 13 2D-landmarks. We show that landmark-based measurements can be used to:—assess the preservation differences between taxa of the same taxonomic group (e.g., rodents),—estimate the level of preservation of a skeletal part (e.g., mandible),—describe fragmentation patterns without pre-existing typologies and—facilitate the application of geometric morphometric methods to fragmented archaeological material. Our novel approach, leveraging fragmentation analyses and establishing specific fragmentation patterns, frees itself from existing typologies and could be systematically applied to future research. Full article
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19 pages, 7108 KiB  
Article
Multi-Taxa Neo-Taphonomic Analysis of Bone Remains from Barn Owl Pellets and Cross-Validation of Observations: A Case Study from Dominica (Lesser Antilles)
by Emmanuelle Stoetzel, Corentin Bochaton, Salvador Bailon, David Cochard, Monica Gala and Véronique Laroulandie
Quaternary 2021, 4(4), 38; https://doi.org/10.3390/quat4040038 - 18 Nov 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3703
Abstract
Paleo- and neo-taphonomic analyses of bone assemblages rarely consider all the occurring taxa in a single study and works concerning birds of prey as accumulators of microvertebrate bone remains mostly focus on small mammals such as rodents and soricomorphs. However, raptors often hunt [...] Read more.
Paleo- and neo-taphonomic analyses of bone assemblages rarely consider all the occurring taxa in a single study and works concerning birds of prey as accumulators of microvertebrate bone remains mostly focus on small mammals such as rodents and soricomorphs. However, raptors often hunt and consume a large range of taxa, including vertebrates such as small mammals, fishes, amphibians, squamates and birds. Bone remains of all these taxonomic groups are numerous in many paleontological and archaeological records, especially in cave deposits. To better characterize the predators at the origin of fossil and sub-fossil microvertebrate accumulations and the taphonomic history of the deposit, it is thus mandatory to conduct global and multi-taxa taphonomic approaches. The aim of this study is to provide an example of such a global approach through the investigation of a modern bone assemblage from a sample of pellets produced by the Lesser Antillean Barn Owl (Tyto insularis) in the island of Dominica. We propose a new methodology that allows us to compare different taxa (rodents, bats, squamates and birds) and to experiment with a cross-validation process using two observers for each taxonomic group to test the reliability of the taphonomic observations. Full article
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21 pages, 5975 KiB  
Article
Resilient Caribbean Communities: A Long-Term Perspective on Sustainability and Social Adaptability to Natural Hazards in the Lesser Antilles
by Corinne L. Hofman, Charlotte Eloise Stancioff, Andrea Richards, Irvince Nanichi Auguiste, Augustine Sutherland and Menno L. P. Hoogland
Sustainability 2021, 13(17), 9807; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179807 - 31 Aug 2021
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 9461
Abstract
Caribbean islands, like other Small Island Developing States (SIDS), are at the center of the vulnerability debate as current climatic trends predict elevated sea levels and increased frequency of storms, leading to significant challenges for local communities. Caribbean islanders have been exposed to [...] Read more.
Caribbean islands, like other Small Island Developing States (SIDS), are at the center of the vulnerability debate as current climatic trends predict elevated sea levels and increased frequency of storms, leading to significant challenges for local communities. Caribbean islanders have been exposed to climatic challenges since the initial occupation of the archipelago between five to eight thousand years ago. They have been continually confronted with severe droughts, tropical cyclones, extreme wave events, sea-level changes, and the accompanying impacts. The various phenomena have stimulated island residents both to anticipate and respond to such events, adapting their lifestyles and socio-cultural and political structures and ties across the region over time. In this article, we innovatively combine archaeological and palaeoenvironmental data with longitudinal coastal-erosion data and ethnographic data to further develop and promote sustainable local strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and increasingly frequent and violent weather events on small-island settings. To find proxies, we first look into the region’s pre-colonial archaeological record. Second, we delve into predictive modeling and the current and future climatic challenges for heritage sites and local coastal communities, as well as related collaborative heritage mitigation efforts. Third, we discuss the contribution of traditional knowledge practices to climate change adaptation. The results show how the long-term perspective and multidisciplinary approach adopted here may lead to realistic solutions to seemingly intractable problems. They also reveal how collaborative projects involving all stakeholders on an equal basis in all phases of research have become a top priority in climate change mitigation and heritage safeguarding. Full article
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15 pages, 1192 KiB  
Article
Sustainable Indigenous Fishing in the Pre-Contact Caribbean: Evidence and Critical Considerations from Carriacou, Grenada
by Christina M. Giovas
Sustainability 2021, 13(16), 9152; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13169152 - 16 Aug 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4647
Abstract
Multiple studies reveal pre-1492 anthropogenic impacts on Caribbean fisheries that are consistent with overfishing, including changes in targeted prey, shifts in marine habitats exploited, and decreases in the average body size of taxa. At the Indigenous Caribbean village of Sabazan (AD 400–1400) on [...] Read more.
Multiple studies reveal pre-1492 anthropogenic impacts on Caribbean fisheries that are consistent with overfishing, including changes in targeted prey, shifts in marine habitats exploited, and decreases in the average body size of taxa. At the Indigenous Caribbean village of Sabazan (AD 400–1400) on Carriacou, Lesser Antilles, post-AD 800 declines in fishing, increased mollusk collection, and changes in resource patch emphasis accord with the archaeological correlates of resource depression predicted by foraging theory models from behavioral ecology. Here, I apply foraging theory logic and abundance indices incorporating body size and fish habitat to test the predictions of expanded diet breadth, declining prey body size, and shifts to more distant fishing patches that are typically associated with overfishing. Results uphold a significant decrease in overall fishing, which may be due to habitat change associated with the Medieval Warm Period. Indices of fish size and resource patch use do not meet foraging theory expectations for resource depression, however. Instead, they suggest an absence of resource depression in the Sabazan fishery and at least 600 years of sustainable fishing. I review similar findings for other Caribbean archaeological sites with either negative evidence for fisheries’ declines or quantitatively demonstrated sustainable fishing. These sites collectively serve as a critical reminder of the heterogeneous trajectories of Indigenous social–ecological systems in the pre-contact Caribbean and the need for meta-level analyses of the region’s ancient fisheries. I discuss the application of the sustainability concept in archaeological studies of fishing and conclude that a more critical, explicit approach to defining and measuring sustainability in ancient fisheries is needed. Full article
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11 pages, 1281 KiB  
Article
Evidence of Another Anthropic Impact on Iguana delicatissima from the Lesser Antilles: The Presence of Antibiotic Resistant Enterobacteria
by Gustavo Di Lallo, Marco Maria D’Andrea, Samanta Sennati, Maria Cristina Thaller, Luciana Migliore and Gabriele Gentile
Antibiotics 2021, 10(8), 885; https://doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics10080885 - 21 Jul 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3730
Abstract
The improper use of antibiotics by humans may promote the dissemination of resistance in wildlife. The persistence and spread of acquired antibiotic resistance and human-associated bacteria in the environment, while representing a threat to wildlife, can also be exploited as a tool to [...] Read more.
The improper use of antibiotics by humans may promote the dissemination of resistance in wildlife. The persistence and spread of acquired antibiotic resistance and human-associated bacteria in the environment, while representing a threat to wildlife, can also be exploited as a tool to monitor the extent of human impact, particularly on endangered animal species. Hence, we investigated both the associated enterobacterial species and the presence of acquired resistance traits in the cloacal microbiota of the critically endangered lesser Antillean iguana (Iguana delicatissima), by comparing two separate populations living in similar climatic conditions but exposed to different anthropic pressures. A combination of techniques, including direct plating, DNA sequencing and antimicrobial susceptibility testing allowed us to characterize the dominant enterobacterial populations, the antibiotic resistant strains and their profiles. A higher frequency of Escherichia coli was found in the samples from the more anthropized site, where multi-drug resistant strains were also isolated. These results confirm how human-associated bacteria as well as their antibiotic-resistance determinants may be transferred to wildlife, which, in turn, may act as a reservoir of antibiotic resistance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Antibiotics and Antibiotic Resistance in Aquatic Environments)
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18 pages, 6087 KiB  
Article
The Combined Effects of SST and the North Atlantic Subtropical High-Pressure System on the Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Interannual Variability
by Albenis Pérez-Alarcón, José C. Fernández-Alvarez, Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto and Luis Gimeno
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 329; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030329 - 4 Mar 2021
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 4204
Abstract
The combined effect of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system (NASH) in the interannual variability of the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) and landfalling in the period 1980–2019 is explored in this study. The SST was extracted [...] Read more.
The combined effect of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system (NASH) in the interannual variability of the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) and landfalling in the period 1980–2019 is explored in this study. The SST was extracted from the Centennial Time Scale dataset from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and TC records were obtained from the Atlantic Hurricane Database of the NOAA/National Hurricane Center. The genesis and landfalling regions were objectively clustered for this analysis. Seven regions of TC genesis and five for landfalling were identified. Intercluster differences were observed in the monthly frequency distribution and annual variability, both for genesis and landfalling. From the generalized least square multiple regression model, SST and NASH (intensity and position) covariates can explain 22.7% of the variance of the frequency of TC genesis, but it is only statistically significant (p < 0.1) for the NASH center latitude. The SST mostly modulates the frequency of TCs formed near the West African coast, and the NASH latitudinal variation affects those originated in the Lesser Antilles arc. For landfalling, both covariates explain 38.7% of the variance; however, significant differences are observed in the comparison between each region. With a statistical significance higher than 90%, SST and NASH explain 33.4% of the landfalling variability in the archipelago of the Bahamas and central–eastern region of Cuba. Besides, landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico and Central America seem to be modulated by SST. It was also found there was no statistically significant relationship between the frequency of genesis and landfalling with the NASH intensity. However, the NASH structure modulates the probability density of the TCs trajectory that make landfall once or several times in their lifetime. Thus, the NASH variability throughout a hurricane season affects the TCs trajectory in the North Atlantic basin. Moreover, we found that the landfalling frequency of TCs formed near the West Africa coast and the central North Atlantic is relatively low. Furthermore, the SST and NASH longitude center explains 31.6% (p < 0.05) of the variance of the landfalling intensity in the archipelago of the Bahamas, while the SST explains 26.4% (p < 0.05) in Central America. Furthermore, the 5-year moving average filter revealed decadal and multidecadal variability in both genesis and landfalling by region. Our findings confirm the complexity of the atmospheric processes involved in the TC genesis and landfalling. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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35 pages, 2327 KiB  
Article
Operational Estimation of Landslide Runout: Comparison of Empirical and Numerical Methods
by Marc Peruzzetto, Anne Mangeney, Gilles Grandjean, Clara Levy, Yannick Thiery, Jérémy Rohmer and Antoine Lucas
Geosciences 2020, 10(11), 424; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10110424 - 26 Oct 2020
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4578
Abstract
A key point of landslide hazard assessment is the estimation of their runout. Empirical relations linking angle of reach to volume can be used relatively easily, but they are generally associated with large uncertainties as they do not consider the topographic specificity of [...] Read more.
A key point of landslide hazard assessment is the estimation of their runout. Empirical relations linking angle of reach to volume can be used relatively easily, but they are generally associated with large uncertainties as they do not consider the topographic specificity of a given study site. On the contrary, numerical simulations provide more detailed results on the deposits morphology, but their rheological parameters can be difficult to constrain. Simulating all possible values can be time consuming and incompatible with operational requirements of rapid estimations. We propose and compare three operational methods to derive scaling power laws relating the landslide travel distance to the destabilized volume. The first one relies only on empirical relations, the second one on numerical simulations with back-analysis, and the third one combines both approaches. Their efficiency is tested on three case studies: the Samperre cliff collapses in Martinique, Lesser Antilles (0.5 to 4×106 m3), the Frank Slide rock avalanche (36×106 m3) and the Samperre cliff collapses in Martinique, Lesser Antilles (0.5 to 4×106 m3) the Fei Tsui debris slide in Hong Kong (0.014×106 m3). Purely numerical estimations yield the smallest uncertainty, but the uncertainty on rheological parameters is difficult to quantify. Combining numerical and empirical approaches allows to reduce the uncertainty of estimation by up to 50%, in comparison to purely empirical estimations. However, it may also induces a bias in the estimation, though observations always lie in the 95% prediction intervals. We also show that empirical estimations fail to model properly the dependence between volume and travel distance, particularly for small landslides (<20,000 <0.02×106 m3). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Landslides and Granular Flows on Earth)
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