Search Results (7)

Accurately and rapidly predicting marine drifter trajectories under conditions of information scarcity is critical for addressing maritime emergencies and conducting marine surveys with resource-limited unmanned vessels. Machine learning-based tracking methods, such as Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), offer a promising approach for trajectory prediction in such scenarios. This study combines satellite observations and idealized simulations to compare the predictive performance of LSTM with a resource-dependent dynamic tracking method (DT). The results indicate that when driven solely by historical drifter paths, LSTM achieves better trajectory predictions when trained and tested on relative trajectory intervals rather than the absolute positions of individual trajectory points. In general, LSTM provides a more accurate geometric pattern of trajectories at the initial stages of forecasting, while DT offers superior accuracy in predicting specific trajectory positions. The velocity and curvature of ocean currents jointly influence the prediction quality of both methods. In regions characterized by active sub-mesoscale dynamics, such as the fast-flowing and meandering Kuroshio Current and Kuroshio Current Extension, DT predicts more reliable trajectory patterns but lacks precision in detailed position estimates compared to LSTM. However, in areas dominated by the fast but relatively straight North Equatorial Current, the performance of the two methods reverses. The two methods also demonstrate different tolerances for noise and sampling intervals. This study establishes a baseline for selecting machine learning methods for marine drifter prediction and highlights the limitations of AI-based predictions under data-scarce and resource-constrained conditions. Full article

Various multi-source observational platforms have enabled the exploration of ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NPO). This study investigated daily oceanic variables in response to the combined effect of the 2019 super typhoon HAGIBIS and the Kuroshio current meander (KCM), which has caused economic, ecological, and climatic changes in the NPO since August 2017. During HAGIBIS, the six-hourly wind speed data estimated a wind stress power ($P_w$) which strengthened around the right and left semicircles of the typhoon, and an Ekman pumping velocity (EPV) which intensified at the center of the typhoon track. As a result, firstly, the sea temperature (ST) decreased along a boundary with a high EPV and a strong cyclonic eddy area, and the mixed layer depth (MLD) was shallow. Secondly, a low sea salinity (SS) concentration showed another area where heavy rain fell on the left side of the typhoon track. Phytoplankton bloom (PB) occurred with a large concentration of chlorophyll a (0.641 $\mathrm{mg}/{\mathrm{m}}^3$) over a wide extent (56,615 ${\mathrm{km}}^2$; above 0.5 $\mathrm{mg}/{\mathrm{m}}^3$) after one day of HAGIBIS. An analysis of a favorable environment of the PB’s growth determined the cause of the PB, and a shift of the subsurface chlorophyll maximum layer (SCML; above 0.7 $\mathrm{mg}/{\mathrm{m}}^3$) was estimated by comprehensive impact analysis. This study may contribute to understanding different individually-estimated physical and biological mechanisms and predicting the recurrence of ocean anomalies. Full article

In this research, the features of the Kuroshio Current in 2019 were studied based on the observations of 29 self-developed surface current experiment drifters deployed in the western Pacific Ocean and the East China Sea. The Kuroshio flow pattern and velocity magnitude observed in 2019 were largely consistent with the climatology based on the historical drifter dataset, but they still exhibited distinctive characteristics. The intrusion of the Kuroshio into the South China Sea in the spring was observed by a group of drifters crossing the Luzon Strait from east to west, which is a notable departure from the non-intrusion pattern noted to occur in the spring in most of the historical records. A strong intrusion of the Kuroshio into the East China Sea was also observed, taking an anti-cyclonic turn in the northeast of Taiwan Island. Both the drifter trajectories and altimeter-derived dynamical topography captured the large meander pattern of the Kuroshio south of Japan in 2019, with the flow path having a maximum offshore distance of 470 km. In addition, Lagrangian statistics (lateral diffusivity, integral time scale, and integral space scale) were estimated for four selected regions with adequate drifter samplings. The lateral diffusivity had large values along the Kuroshio segment in the East China Sea and small values on the continental shelf of the East China Sea. The integral time scales for the four regions ranged from 0.8 to 3.7 days, with a corresponding integral space scale of 19~128 km. Full article

The vertical structure and seasonal variability of shear were examined using nearly three years of mooring ADCP (acoustic Doppler current profiler) data on the southwestern continental slope of the East China Sea (ECS). Shear spectra suggest that the sub-inertial currents (SICs); near-inertial waves (NIWs); and diurnal (D1), semidiurnal (D2), and tridiurnal (D3) internal tides (ITs) dominate the local shear field. The shear exhibits a remarkable surface-intensified pattern with high values occurring mostly in the upper 200 m. Significant seasonal variations can be found in the shear, but with differences between the upper (50–200 m averaged) and lower layers (210–570 m averaged). Satellite altimeter data indicate that the meander of the Kuroshio mainstream and the Kuroshio intrusion affect the seasonal variation of total shear by mainly influencing the shear caused by SICs. In addition, the shear efficiency (SE) of D2 ITs is obviously less than that of NIWs and that of D1 and D3 ITs via analyzing the kinetic energy (KE) densities and shear caused by these motions, since the predominant mode of the former is the first baroclinic mode, while the latter is dominated by higher baroclinic modes with large vertical wavenumbers. Moreover, the SE of incoherent ITs is relatively stronger than that of coherent ITs as a result of a larger proportion of high baroclinic modes in the incoherent component compared to the coherent component, based on modal decomposition. Full article

An unusual eastward flow was observed branching out from the Kuroshio Current near the island of Taiwan in the western North Pacific in during the period June–July 2010. The branch meandered eastward approximately 21°N, carrying high chlorophyll-a (Chla) waters for over 1000 km from 125°E into the nutrient-poor North Pacific subtropical gyre (NPSG). The branch was warmer and fresher than the surrounding waters, with temperature–salinity properties resembling those of Kuroshio Current. Thus, we called it the eastward cross-shore Kuroshio branch (ECKB). Injecting fresher waters far into the central NPSG, the ECKB flowed at a mean surface speed of 0.5 m per second, as shown in satellite altimeters, a Lagrangian drifter, and the Japan-Meteorological-Agency (JMA) 137°E-meridian cruise transect. The mechanism of the ECKB was linked to a surface cyclonic wind anomaly to the north at approximately 22–24°N. The cyclonic wind anomaly cooled the ocean surface beneath it via Ekman suction and then enhanced the subtropical front to its south at approximately 21°N near the Kuroshio Current. The strengthened subtropical front subsequently induced an eastward flow that bifurcated from the main stream of the northward-flowing Kuroshio Current. Full article

The semidiurnal internal tides (ITs) on the continental slope of the southeastern East China Sea (ECS) exhibited abrupt enhancement in November of 2017. This enhancement resulted from the intensification of the coherent semidiurnal ITs. Coherent and incoherent semidiurnal ITs had a comparative energy contribution in October; however, coherent semidiurnal ITs dominated with a variance contribution of 90% in November. The variance contribution of vertical modes of the semidiurnal ITs varied between October and November, and the mode with most variance contribution changed from the second mode to the first mode. Altimeter data and the observed background currents indicated that the Kuroshio mainstream meandered and abruptly intruded into the ECS in November. The upper layer background currents were significantly related to the kinetic energy of the semidiurnal ITs, and the correlation coefficient between them reached 0.81. The frequent occurrences of the Kuroshio intrusion have suggested that the ITs in the ECS are susceptible to the modulation of the Kuroshio current. Numerical modeling and predication of ITs should consider the meander of the Kuroshio mainstream. Full article

The spatial and temporal variability of the Kuroshio surface axis northeast of Taiwan Island is investigated using 24 years of surface geostrophic currents derived from satellite altimeter data from 1993 to 2016. The Kuroshio surface axis is derived by an extraction method with three selected parameters, including the length of the subsidiary line, the intervals between two adjacent points, and the distance between the two adjacent subsidiary lines. The empirical mode decomposition analysis on the 24-year Kuroshio axes reveals that the mean periods of intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability, which are the two dominant components, are about 3.2 months and 1.3 years, respectively. The self-organizing map analysis reveals that the variation of Kuroshio axis northeast of Taiwan Island has four best matching unit (BMU) patterns: straight-path (BMU_S), meandering-path (BMU_M) and two transition stages (BMU_T1 and BMU_T2). The straight-path pattern shows strong seasonality: more likely occurring in summer. The meandering-path pattern is less frequent than straight-path pattern. During a typical period from November 26, 2012 to January 27, 2013, which is chosen as an independent example, the analysis on the satellite altimeter and sea surface temperature data shows that the patterns of the Kuroshio axis change successively in order of BMU_T1→BMU_M→BMU_T2→BMU_S, i.e., the Kuroshio axis migrates from the meandering-path to the straight-path pattern. During the typical period the warm water intrusion and a mesoscale eddy occur at the second stage corresponding to BMU_M and migrate northwestward gradually at the last two stages corresponding to BMU_T2 and BMU_S. The transient order appears only during this typical period but it is not common for the whole study period. The monthly mean relatively vorticity is calculated and analyzed to evaluate the impact of the eddies on the Kuroshio surface axis variability, the results show that the anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies can promote the Kuroshio surface axis to present the meandering-path (straight-path) pattern because of the potential vorticity conservation. The impacts of the anticyclonic eddies and the cyclonic eddies on the variability of the Kuroshio surface axis are opposite. The long-term day-to-day detection contributes to improving understanding the variability of Kuroshio surface axis northeast of Taiwan Island. Full article