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Keywords = Hurricane Otto

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24 pages, 2896 KiB  
Technical Note
Evaluation of Debris Flows for Flood Plain Estimation in a Small Ungauged Tropical Watershed for Hurricane Otto
by Sebastián Fallas Salazar and Alejandra M. Rojas González
Hydrology 2021, 8(3), 122; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8030122 - 18 Aug 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3814
Abstract
The variability of climate, increase in population, and lack of territorial plans in Costa Rica have caused intense disasters with human and economic losses. In 2016, Hurricane Otto hit the country’s northern area, leaving substantial damages, including landslides, debris flows, and flooding. The [...] Read more.
The variability of climate, increase in population, and lack of territorial plans in Costa Rica have caused intense disasters with human and economic losses. In 2016, Hurricane Otto hit the country’s northern area, leaving substantial damages, including landslides, debris flows, and flooding. The present study evaluated different scenarios to estimate flooded areas for Newtonian (clean water), and non-Newtonian flows with volumetric sediment concentrations (Cv) of 0.3, 0.45, 0.55, and 0.65 using Hydro-Estimator (HE), rain gauge station, and the 100-year return period event. HEC–HMS modeled the rainfall products, and FLO-2D modeled the hydrographs and Cv combinations. The simulation results were evaluated with continuous statistics, contingency table, Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency, measure of fit (F), and mean absolute differences (E) in the floodplains. Flow depths, velocities, and hazard intensities were obtained in the floodplain. The debris flood was validated with field data and classified with a Cv of 0.45, presenting lower MAE and RMSE. Results indicated no significant differences in flood depths between hydrological scenarios with clean-water simulations with a difference of 8.38% in the peak flow. The flood plain generated with HE rainfall and clear-water condition presented similar results compared to the rain gauge input source. Additionally, hydraulic results with HE and Cv of 0.45 presented E and F values similar to the simulation of Cv of 0.3, demonstrating that the HE bias did not influence the determination of the floodplain depth and extent. A mean bias factor can be applied to a sub-daily temporal resolution to enhance HE rain rate quantifications and floodplain determination. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrology in the Caribbean Basin)
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18 pages, 3036 KiB  
Article
Examination of WRF-ARW Experiments Using Different Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations to Study the Rapid Intensification and Trajectory of Hurricane Otto (2016)
by Tito Maldonado, Jorge A. Amador, Erick R. Rivera, Hugo G. Hidalgo and Eric J. Alfaro
Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1317; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121317 - 4 Dec 2020
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3145
Abstract
Hurricane Otto (2016) was characterised by remarkable meteorological features of relevance for the scientific community and society. Scientifically, among the most important attributes of Otto is that it underwent a rapid intensification (RI) process. For society, this cyclone severely impacted Costa Rica and [...] Read more.
Hurricane Otto (2016) was characterised by remarkable meteorological features of relevance for the scientific community and society. Scientifically, among the most important attributes of Otto is that it underwent a rapid intensification (RI) process. For society, this cyclone severely impacted Costa Rica and Nicaragua, leaving enormous economic losses and many fatalities. In this study, a set of three numerical simulations are performed to examine the skill of model estimations in reproducing RI and trajectory of Hurricane Otto by comparing the results of a global model to a regional model using three different planetary boundary layer parameterizations (PBL). The objective is to set the basis for future studies that analyse the physical reasons why a particular simulation (associated with a certain model setup) performs better than others in terms of reproducing RI and trajectory. We use the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting—Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with boundary and initial conditions provided by the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis (horizontal resolution of 0.5 degrees). The PBL used are the Medium Range Forecast, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and the Yonsei University (YSU) parameterizations. The regional model is run in three static domains with horizontal grid spacing of 27, 9 and 3 km, the latter covering the spacial extent of Otto during the simulation period. WRF-ARW results improve the GFS forecast, in almost every aspect evaluated in this study, particularly, the simulated trajectories in WRF-ARW show a better representation of the cyclone path and movement compared to GFS. Even though the MYJ experiment was the only one that exhibited an abrupt 24-h change in the storm’s surface wind, close to the 25-knot threshold, the YSU scheme presented the fastest intensification, closest to reality. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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