Search Results (6)

One of the worst natural, economic, and social catastrophes caused by human activity is the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia. The Aral Sea’s desiccation, which has an impact on the region’s overall sustainable development, human welfare, security, and survival, is what led to the problem. This study assesses the effects of economic expansion, population ageing, life expectancy, internet usage, and greenhouse gas emissions on the fertility rate in the countries that made up the Aral Sea basin between 1990 and 2021. Several econometric techniques were used in this study, including Pooled OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) with the Driscoll–Kraay estimating method, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square), and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square). Additionally, we used the Hurlin and Dumitrescu non-cause tests to verify the causal links between the variables. The empirical findings verify that a decrease in the fertility rate among women in the nations surrounding the Aral Sea occurs when the population of a certain age (women aged 15–64 as a percentage of the total population) grows and life expectancy rises. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) also have an adverse effect on reproductive rates. Conversely, the region’s fertility rate may rise as a result of increased internet usage and economic growth. Furthermore, this study indicates that certain variables—aside from greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)—have a causal relationship with the fertility rate. Full article

With the desiccation of the Aral Sea, salt–alkali dust storms have increased in frequency and the surrounding environment has deteriorated. In order to increase our understanding of the characteristics and potential impact zone of atmospheric aerosols in the Aral Sea region, we evaluated seasonal and diurnal variation of aerosols and identified the zone most frequently impacted by aerosols from the Aral Sea region using CALIPSO data and the HYSPLIT model. The results showed that polluted dust and dust were the two most commonly observed aerosol subtypes in the Aral Sea region with the two accounting for over 75% of observed aerosols. Occurrence frequencies of polluted dust, clean continental, polluted continental/smoke, and elevated smoke showed obvious seasonal and diurnal variations, while occurrence frequency of dust only showed obvious seasonal variation. Vertically, the occurrence frequencies of all aerosol subtypes except dust showed significant diurnal variation at all levels. The thickness of polluted dust layers and dust layers exhibited same seasonal and diurnal variations with a value of more than 1.0 km year-round, and the layer thickness of clean continental and polluted continental/smoke shared the same seasonal and diurnal variation features. The zone most severely impacted by aerosols from the Aral Sea region, covering an area of approximately 2 million km², was mainly distributed in the vicinity of the Aral Sea region, including western Kazakhstan, and most of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The results provide direct support for positioning monitoring of aeolian dust deposition and human health protection in the Aral Sea region. Full article

Once one of the largest saline lakes, the Aral Sea, was recognized as a significant environmental disaster as the water level decreased dramatically. Water level decrease increases water salinity, affecting biodiversity. Exposed lake beds become the source for fine dust picked up by the dust storms and spread across a long distance, affecting people’s health in surrounding areas. This review paper attempts to evaluate the potential links between the Aral Sea shrinking and the existing health issues in the case of Kazakhstan. The literature-based research revealed that the population of the Aral Sea basin region has been suffering from exposure to various pollutant residues for a long time. There is an apparent increase in morbidity and mortality rates in the region, especially in people suffering from chronic illness. Furthermore, the catastrophic desiccation of the Aral Sea has led to the sharp deterioration in living conditions and negative trends in the socio-economic situation of the region’s population. While the dust storms spread the polluted salts from the exposed bottom across the Aral Sea region, specific contaminants define the relevance and importance of public health problems linked to the basin rather than the Aral Sea drying process. There is, however, no clear evidence that associated dust storms are the only primary source of the deterioration of people’s health. Moreover, One Health approach seems to play a crucial role in achieving better outcomes in the health of people and the health of the environment. Full article

The desiccation of the Aral Sea due to water withdrawal from contributing rivers has resulted in an unprecedented change in the region’s climate, from maritime to hot dry desert. Afforestation has been implemented on the desiccated seafloor—the Aralkum Desert—for stabilizing the exposed substrate. However, studies on the long-term status of the afforested sites are limited. Here, we examined C and N isotopic signatures in Haloxylon aphyllum plantations, as indicators of time-integrated plant response to the prevalent water and salinity constraints, in northern Aralkum, Kazakhstan. Foliar ¹³C composition analysis in a chronosequence of H. aphyllum plantation sites (aged 1–27 years) on the sandy substrate revealed a significant trend towards higher water-use efficiency in older plantations, possibly in response to declining water availability. A lack of correlation between plant ¹³C signature and soil electrical conductivity suggests no history of salt stress despite the saline environment. Furthermore, ¹⁵N enrichment in plant tissue in the water-limited Aralkum ecosystem indicates the relative openness of N cycling. There was an increase in species richness and self-propagation at the plot scale, indicating successful afforestation effort. Coupled with other approaches, isotope discrimination might elucidate mechanisms underlying stress tolerance in H. aphyllum, which could support the afforestation efforts. Full article

The South Aral Sea has been massively affected by the implementation of a mega-irrigation project in the region, but ground-based observations have monitored the Sea poorly. This study is a comprehensive analysis of the mass balance of the South Aral Sea and its basin, using multiple instruments from ground and space. We estimate lake volume, evaporation from the lake, and the Amu Darya streamflow into the lake using strengths offered by various remote-sensing data. We also diagnose the attribution behind the shrinking of the lake and its possible future fate. Terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission from the Aral Sea region can approximate water level of the East Aral Sea with good accuracy (1.8% normalized root mean square error (RMSE), and 0.9 correlation) against altimetry observations. Evaporation from the lake is back-calculated by integrating altimetry-based lake volume, in situ streamflow, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation. Different evapotranspiration (ET) products (Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the Water Gap Hydrological Model (WGHM)), and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Global Evapotranspiration Project (MOD16) significantly underestimate the evaporation from the lake. However, another MODIS based Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) ET estimate shows remarkably high consistency (0.76 correlation) with our estimate (based on the water-budget equation). Further, streamflow is approximated by integrating lake volume variation, PT-JPL ET, and GPCP datasets. In another approach, the deseasonalized GRACE signal from the Amu Darya basin was also found to approximate streamflow and predict extreme flow into the lake by one or two months. They can be used for water resource management in the Amu Darya delta. The spatiotemporal pattern in the Amu Darya basin shows that terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the central region (predominantly in the primary irrigation belt other than delta) has increased. This increase can be attributed to enhanced infiltration, as ET and vegetation index (i.e., normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) from the area has decreased. The additional infiltration might be an indication of worsening of the canal structures and leakage in the area. The study shows how altimetry, optical images, gravimetric and other ancillary observations can collectively help to study the desiccating Aral Sea and its basin. A similar method can be used to explore other desiccating lakes. Full article

The Ili River is a transboundary river shared by China, upstream, and Kazakhstan, downstream. The Ili is the main water supplier to Lake Balkhash, the largest lake in Central Asia after desiccation of the Aral Sea. Agreements over water allocation have not been concluded between China and Kazakhstan. This paper investigated water consumption of agriculture and riparian ecosystems in the Ili river basin, to provide information for further debate on water allocation, through the Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI) approach using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images. The overall water consumption in the Ili river basin was 14.3 km3/a in 2000, 17.2 km3/a in 2005, and 15 km3/a in 2014. In 2000, China and Kazakhstan consumed 38% and 62% of the water, respectively. By 2014, the relative share of China’s water consumption increased to 43%. In China, 80% of the water consumption is due to agriculture. High runoff during the past 10 years enabled increasing water consumption in China and sufficient water supply to agriculture and riparian ecosystems in Kazakhstan. When runoff of the Ili River decreases, as expected for most rivers in Central Asia, then irrigation efficiency has to be further increased in China, and irrigation systems in Kazakhstan have to be restored and modernized in order to reduce water consumption and protect Lake Balkhash and the riparian ecosystems. Full article