Forecasting and Surveillance of COVID-19 Spread Using Google Trends: Literature Review
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria
3. Results
3.1. Differences between Countries
3.2. Time Periods
3.3. Keywords
3.4. More Complex Analysis Methods of GT Data
3.5. Negative Results of GT Use for COVID-19 Prediction and Surveillance
4. Discussion
4.1. Differences between Countries
4.2. Time Periods
4.3. Risk Communication
4.4. Language
4.5. Complex Analysis Methods of GT Data
4.6. Negative Findings
4.7. Strengths
4.8. Limitations of the Possible Use of GT
4.9. Limitations of the Review
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Appendix B
Appendix C
Appendix D
Appendix E
Appendix F
Appendix G
Appendix H
References
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Author and Year | The Main Findings about Google Trends | Country | Period | Keywords |
---|---|---|---|---|
Husnayain, Fuad, Su (2020) [60] | GT can be used for public restlessness monitoring towards COVID-19 pandemic 1–3 days before the increase in confirmed cases. | TW | 12 2019–02 2020 | Coronavirus, hand wash, face masks |
Walker, Hopkins, Surda (2020) [13] | Strong correlation between smell-related information search frequency and onset of COVID-19 infection. | IT, ES, UK, US, DE, FR, NL, IR | 12 2019–03 2020 | Smell, loss of smell, anosmia, hyposmia, olfaction, taste, loss of taste, dysgeusia. The keywords were automatically translated to national languages of study countries. |
Mavragani (2020) [24] | Significant correlations between online interest of coronavirus and COVID-19 cases and deaths. | IT, ES, FR, DE, UK | 01 2020–03 2020 | Coronavirus |
Venkatesh and Gandhi (2020) [56] | Google Web, together with other internet-based tools might be useful in predicting COVID-19 outbreaks 2–3 weeks earlier than conventional disease surveillance. | IN | 01 2020–04 2020 | Coronavirus, COVID, COVID-19, corona, virus |
Kurian, Bhatti, Alvi, Ting, Storlie, Wilson, Shah, Liu, Bydon (2020) [7] | The information obtained from GT precedes COVID-19 outbreaks. This information could allow better preparation and planning of health care systems. | US | 01 2020–04 2020 | COVID symptoms, coronavirus symptoms, sore throat + shortness of breath + fatigue + cough, coronavirus testing center, loss of smell, Lysol (sanitizer), antibody, face mask, coronavirus vaccine, COVID stimulus check |
Panuganti, Jafari, MacDonald, DeConde (2020) [42] | Google search of fever and shortness of breath are better indicators of COVID-19 incidence than anosmia. | US | 01 2020–04 2020 (excluding a short timeframe (March 22 to March 24)) | COVID, coronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, and COVID19, nonsmell symptoms of COVID-19 (shortness of breath, fatigue, cough, and fever) loss of smell, anosmia, lose smell, sense of smell, cannot smell, can’t smell and hyposmia, nasal irrigation and sinus rinse, (dysgeusia, taste change and taste loss, COVID, coronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, and COVID19), (shortness of breath, fatigue, cough, and fever), and smell loss anosmia, loss of smell, reduced smell, decreased smell, lose your sense of smell, lost sense of smell, decreased sense of smell, decrease your sense of smell, decreased my sense of smell, reduce your sense of smell, reduced my sense of smell, reduced sense of smell, loss of sense of smell, loss of smell, hyposmia |
Mavragani and Gkillas (2020) [43] | Significant correlation found between GT search queries and COVID-19 incidence. | US | 03 2020–04 2020 | coronavirus (virus) and coronavirus (search term) |
Higgins, Wu, Sharma, Illing, Rubel, Ting, Alliance (2020) [35] | Many search terms showed significant correlations with COVID-19 cases and mortality rate. | CN, US, IT, ES | 01 2020–04 2020 | Real world deaths, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Fever, SOB, Cough, Sputum, Anosmia, Dys/ageusia, Nasal congestion, Rhinorrhea, Sneezing, Sore throat, Headache, Myalgia, Chest pain, Eye pain, Diarrhea |
Ahmad, Flanagan, Staller (2020) [44] | Google searches for gastrointestinal symptoms preceded the increase in COVID-19 cases in a predictable manner. | US | 01 2020–04 2020 | ageusia, abdominal pain, loss of appetite, anorexia, diarrhea, and vomiting |
Cherry, Rocke, Chu, Liu, Lechner, Lund, Kumar (2020) [36] | GT data containing searches related to loss of smell could potentially identify COVID-19 outbreaks. | IT, ES, FR, BR, US | 02 2020–05 2020 | loss of sense of smell, loss of sense of taste, sense of smell, sense of taste |
Cousins, Cousins, Harris, Pasquale (2020) [5] | Identifiable patterns in internet searches could predict COVID-19 outbreaks, although stochastic changes in search intensity can alter these predictions. | US | 01 2020–04 2020 | 463 unique search queries. Appendix A. |
Sharma and Sharma (2020) [37] | A positive correlation between COVID-19 cases and GT values has been recorded. | US, ES, IT, FR, UK, CN, IR, IN | 03 2020–04 2020 | COVID-19 |
Schnoell, Besser, Jank, Bartosik, Parzefall, Riss, Mueller, Liu (2021) [38] | Clear correlation found between GT data and COVID-19 incidence. GT data might be useful in selecting the best timing for web-based COVID-19-specific information and prevention measures. | AU, BR, CA, DE, IT, ZA, ROK, ES, UK, US | 01 2020–06 2020 | Coronavirus, corona |
Jimenez, Estevez-Rebored, Santed, Ramos (2020) [39] | Significant correlation found between the rise of COVID-19 incidences and GT search queries with a lag of 11 days. | ES | 02 2020–05 2020 | cansancio, which translates as fatigue; coronavirus, COVID 19, covid 19, and COVID19; diarrea, which translates as diarrhea; dolor de garganta, which translates as sore throat; fiebre, which translates as fever; neumonia, which translates as pneumonia and was searched without an accent due to being more relevant; perdida de olfato, which translates as lost sense of smell and was also searched without an accent; tos, which translates as cough |
Lippi, Mattiuzzi, Cervellin (2020) [40] | Significant correlations found between GT search data and newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases with a 3-week lag. | IT | 02 2020–05 2020 | tosse (i.e., cough), febbre (i.e., fever), and dispnea (i.e., dyspnea) |
Strzelecki, Azevedo, Albuquerque (2020) [41] | There was a correlation between COVID-19 spread and GT search data for personal protective gear and hand hygiene. | PL, PT | 01 2020–06 2020 | máscara cirúrgica (face mask), desinfetante (sanitizer), and álcool (alcohol) |
Badell-Grau, Cuff, Kelly, Waller-Evans, Lloyd-Evans (2020) [14] | Strong correlations found between COVID-19-related search terms and cases and mortality rates from COVID-19. | AU, DE, IT, ES, UK, US | 11 2019–04 2020 | keywords used in three categories and four languages: Government Policy, Medical Interventions, and Misinformation |
Rajan, Sharaf, Brown, Sharaiha, Lebwohl, Mahadev (2020) [45] | GT data could be used to identify active disease transmission areas in the beginning of new outbreaks. | US | 10 2019–05 2020 | diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain. The terms fever and cough were included as positive controls. The term constipation was included as a negative control. |
Xie, Tan, Li (2020) [58] | Monitoring internet search activity could prevent and control the epidemic and rumors around it. | CN | 01 2020–02 2020 | Coronavirus |
Hartwell, Greiner, Kilburn, Ottwell (2020) [46] | GT data relating to the public interest of COVID-19 preventative measures correlated with stay-at-home expiration dates and decreased new COVID-19 cases after that expiration. In addition, states with higher interest in preventative measures had higher COVID-19-related deaths per capita and higher case-fatality rates. | US | 05 2020 | hand sanitizer, social distancing, COVID testing, contact tracing |
Effenberger, Kronbichler, Shin, Mayer, Tilg, Perco (2020) [8] | Significant correlations were found between GT data relating to coronavirus and new COVID-19 cases across studied countries. The time lag was 11.5 days. | KR, JP, IR, IT, AT, DE, UK, US, EG, AU, BR, CN | 12 2019–04 2020 | Coronavirus (virus) |
Lin, Liu, Chiu (2020) [61] | Google searches for “wash hands” from January to February correlated with lower COVID-19 spread from February to March in 21 countries. | IT, IR, KR, FR, ES, DE, US, CH, NL, SE, NO, AT, AU, CA, JP, UK, BE, SG, HK, TW, TH | 01 2020–02 2020 | wash hands, face mask |
Brunori and Resce (2020) [15] | Significant positive correlation found between google search queries of COVID-19 symptoms and reported COVID-19 deaths. | IT | 02 2020–03 2020 | ‘fever’, ‘dry cough’, ‘cough’, ‘sore throat’, ‘loss of sense of smell’, and ‘loss of sense of taste’ |
Sulyok, Ferenci, Walker (2021) [16] | Strong positive correlation found between Google search queries for coronavirus and COVID-19 cases in Europe. | BE, FE, DE, HU, IE, IT, NL, NO, ES, SE, CH, UK | 01 2020–03 2020 | Coronavirus |
Abbas, Morland, Hall, El-Manzalawy (2021) [47] | The dynamics of the correlations found between GT data COVID-19 cases and deaths suggest that it would be possible to make predictions of COVID-19 cases and mortality rates up to 3 weeks in advance. | US | Dataset released 09 2020, accessed 11 2020 | 422 symptoms and conditions dataset. Appendix B. |
Pellegrini, Ferrucci, Guaraldi, Bernabei, Scorcia, Giannaccare (2021) [17] | GT data on conjunctivitis reveals significant correlations with COVID-19 new cases with a lag of 14–18 days. | IT, FR, UK, US | 01 2020–04 2020 | “conjunctivitis” and the translation in Italian (“congiuntivite”) and French (“conjonctivite”) |
Yousefinaghani, Dara, Mubareka, Sharif (2021) [48] | GT data allowed to identify starts and peaks of COVID-19 waves 1 and 3 weeks earlier, respectively. Strong correlation was found between Twitter/GT data and the number of COVID-19 cases in Canada with 3–5-week lags. | CA, US | 01 2020–09 2020 | Shortness of breath, cough, fever, sore throat, loss of smell, loss of taste, face mask, quarantine, wearing mask, wash hand, COVID-19 vaccine, COVID-19 vaccine, covid vaccine, corona vaccine, coronavirus vaccine, physical distancing, social distancing |
Cinarka, Uysal, Cifter, Niksarlioglu, Çarkoğlu (2021) [18] | Online interest shown in COVID-19 pulmonary symptoms can reliably predict later reported cases of the first COVID-19 wave. | TR, IT, ES, FR, UK | 01 2020–08 2020 | fever, cough, dyspnea |
Husnayain, Chuang, Fuad, Su (2021) [49] | Significant correlations between COVID-19 and GT data reached their highest point in June and decreased as the outbreak progressed. | US | 01 2020–12 2020 | Data retrieved for COVID-19-related terms, topics, and disease; the top related queries; most-searched COVID-19 terms in 2020 with a lag of 7 days |
Kristensen, Lorenz, May, Strauss, (2021) [19] | Significant correlations found between term “RKI” and increase in COVID-19 cases (2–12-day lag). Similar pattern was observed for the term “corona”. Searches for “protective mask” peaked 6–12 days after the peak of COVID-19 cases. | DE | 02 2020–04 2020 | ‘RKI’ (Robert Koch Institut), ‘Mundschutz’ (protective mask), and ‘corona’ |
Hu, Lou, Xu, Meng, Xie, Zhang, Zou, Liu, Sun, Wang (2020) [34] | Slightly positive significant correlation found between GT data regarding COVID-19 and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases. | US, UK, CA, IE, AU, NZ | 12 2019–02 2020 | 2019-nCoV + SARS-CoV-2 + novel coronavirus + new coronavirus + COVID-19 + Corona Virus Disease 2019 |
Schuster, Tizek, Schielein, Ziehfreund, Rothe, Spinner, Biedermann, Zink (2021) [33] | Moderate correlation found between GT data and confirmed new COVID-19 cases over the study period. | DE | 01 2020–07 2020 | coronavirus |
Li, Chen, Chen, Zhang, Pang, Chen (2020) [59] | Internet search terms had high correlation with daily COVID-19 cases. | CN | 01 2020–02 2020 | coronavirus, pneumonia |
Walker, Sulyok (2020) [32] | Search terms related to coronavirus had a significant correlation with confirmed COVID-19 cases. | UK | 01 2020–04 2020 | Coronavirus (virus), hand washing (search term), and face mask (search term) |
Samadbeik, Garavand, Aslani, Ebrahimzadeh, Fatehi (2022) [55] | Terms related to COVID, COVID-19, and coronavirus had a significant correlation with confirmed weekly COVID-19 cases. | IR | 02 2020–01 2021 | corona [Persian], Covid [Persian], COVID-19, corona, and coronavirus |
Ahmed, Abid, de Oliveira, Ahmed, Siddiqui, Siddiqui, Jafri, Lippi (2021) [54] | ‘Loss of smell’ was the best predictor for positive weekly COVID-19 cases. | PK | 03 2021–06 2021 | Fever, cough, headache, shortness of breath, taste loss, and hearing loss, COVID-19, coronavirus, virus, COVID |
Yuan, Xu, Hussain, Wang, Gao, Zhang (2020) [51] | COVID-19 search terms had a strong correlation with confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in the USA. | US | 03 2020–04 2020 | COVID-19, COVID, coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, pneumonia, high temperature, cough, COVID heart, COVID pneumonia, and COVID diabetes |
Aragón-Ayala, Copa-Uscamayta, Herrera, Zela-Coila, Cender Udai Quispe-Juli (2021) [62] | Most countries showed a moderate to strong significant correlation between COVID-19 searches and daily new cases. | AR, BO, BR, CL, CO, CR, CU, EC, SV, GT, HN, MX NI, PA, PY, PE, PR, DO, UY, VE | 12 2019–04 2020 | “coronavirus + COVID-19 + SARS-CoV2 + nuevo coronavirus + 2019-nCoV”, “coronavirus + coronavírus + COVID-19 + SARS-CoV2 + novo coronavirus + novo coronavírus + 2019-nCoV” |
Author and Year | The Main Findings about Google Trends | Country | Period | Keywords |
---|---|---|---|---|
Ayyoubzadeh, Zahedi, Ahmadi, Niakan Kalhori (2020) [53] | Data mining algorithms (linear regression and long short-term memory) can predict COVID-19 outbreak trends. | IR | 02 2020–03 2020 | Corona, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Antiseptic selling, Antiseptic buying, Hand washing, Hand sanitizer, Ethanol, Antiseptic |
Prasanth, Singh, Kumar, Tikkiwal, Chong (2021) [63] | Data obtained from GT significantly improved deep learning model (long short-term memory optimized with Grey Wolf optimization) for forecasting COVID-19 numbers. | IN, US, UK | 02 2020–05 2020 | Coronavirus symptoms, Coronavirus, Covid, Hand wash, Healthcenter, Mask, Positive cases, Sanitizer, Coronavirus vaccine |
Niu, Liang, Zhang, Zhang, Qu, Su, Zheng, Chen et al. (2021) [21] | GT data combined with Adaboost algorithm had strong predictive ability of COVID-19 infection with hopes to further enhance the online prediction system. | IT | 02 2020–03 2020 | 40 keywords. Appendix C. |
Peng, Li, Rong, Chen, Chen (2020) [22] | A model with GT data and Random Forest Classification, developed from 20 countries worldwide, can be used for epidemic alert level prediction. | 202 countries. Appendix D. | 01 2020–04 2020 | Coronavirus, Pneumonia, Cough, Diarrhea, Fatigue, Fever, Nasal congestion and Rhinorrhea |
Rabiolo, Alladio, Morales, McNaught, Bandello, Afifi, Marchese et al. (2021) [23] | GT data could improve statistical models (ERS, ARIMA, and NNA models fitted on the first two principal components) of nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 incidence with a 15-day time lag and could be used as one of surveillance systems for this disease. | AU, BR, FR, IN, IR, ZA, UK, US | 01 2015–07 2020 (weekly data) and 01 2020–12 2020 (daily data) | 20 topics: abdominal pain, ageusia, anorexia, anosmia, bone pain, chills, conjunctivitis, cough, diarrhea, eye pain, fatigue, fever, headache, myalgia, nasal congestion, nausea, rhinorrhea, shortness of breath, sore throat, and tearing |
Turk, Tran, Rose, McWilliams (2021) [50] | GT data were incorporated in a vector error correction model, which showed very good results in forecasting regional COVID-19 hospital census. | US | 02 2020–08 2020 | Coronavirus, covid testing + covid test + covid19 Testing + covid19 test + covid 19 Testing + covid 19 test, headache, pneumonia, “shortness of breath” + “trouble breathing” + “difficulty breathing”, CDC |
Peng, Li, Rong, Pang, Chen, Chen (2021) [25] | Random forest regression algorithm with integrated previous incidence and GT data was able to accurately predict increase in COVID-19 cases in most countries 7 days in advance. | 215 countries. Appendix E. | 01 2020–07 2020 | Fourteen terms, including coronavirus, pneumonia, and COVID-19; six symptom-related terms (cough, diarrhea, fatigue, fever, nasal congestion, and rhinorrhea); five prevention-related terms (hand washing, hand sanitizer, mask, social distance, and social isolation) |
Author and Year | The Main Findings about Google Trends | Country | Period | Keywords |
---|---|---|---|---|
Szmuda, Ali, Hetzger, Rosvall, Słoniewski (2020) [26] | GT data did not correlate with COVID-19 incidence and mortality; however, they had a strong correlation with international WHO announcements. | 40 European countries. Appendix F. | 12 2019–04 2020 | Coronavirus |
Asseo, Fierro, Slavutsky, Frasnelli, Niv (2020) [27] | The correlation between internet searches for symptoms and new COVID-19 cases varied significantly over time. High fluctuations show that relying only on GT data to monitor the spread of COVID-19 is not a viable strategy. | IT, US | 03 2020–04 2020 | taste loss, smell loss, sight loss (control), hearing loss (control), COVID symptoms (and the same in Italian) |
Muselli, Cofini, Desideri, Necozione (2021) [28] | The volume of Google searches did not reflect the actual epidemiological situation. It has been seen that official communications and government activity has more impact on public interest in the disease. | IT | 12 2019–03 2020 | coronavirus, coronavirus symptoms (in Italian), coronavirus news (in Italian), and coronavirus Italy (in Italian) |
Rovetta (2021) [29] | Big number of anomalies seen in multiple cities’ relative search volumes (RSVs) made these data unusable for statistical inference. Furthermore, correlations varied greatly depending on the day RSVs were collected. | IT | 02 2020–12 2020 and 02 2020–05 2020 | coronavirus + covid |
Satpathy, Kumar, Prasad (2021) [57] | Correlations found between GT queries and COVID-19 cases maybe either because of media-coverage-induced curiosity or health-seeking curiosity. | IN | 01 2020–05 2020 | 88 terms in Hindi and English. Appendix G. |
Sato, Mano, Iwata, Toda (2021) [30] | Results suggest that search keywords, previously identified as candidates for COVID-19 prediction, might be unreliable. | JP, AU, CA, UK, IE, IN, SG, US, ZA | 10 2017–10 2020 | 54 English keywords and the corresponding 60 Japanese keywords. Appendix H. |
Dagher, Lamé, Hubiche, Ezzedine, Duong (2021) [31] | Google searches for chilblain were influenced by media coverage and government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, showing that GT, as a monitoring tool for emerging infectious diseases, should be used with caution. | US, UK, FR, IT, ES, DE | 01 2020–05 2020 | (1) toe or chilblains and (2) coronavirus, |
Madden, Feldman (2021) [52] | Search terms do not give any evidences suggesting earlier COVID-19 spread. | US | 09 2015–03 2020 | Can’t smell OR can’t taste or smell OR why can’t i smell or taste OR why can’t i taste or smell anything |
Sousa-Pinto, Anto, Czarlewski, Anto, Fonseca, Bousquet (2020) [62] | COVID-19-related searches are more closely related to media coverage than to ongoing COVID-19 epidemic. | RA, AU, BE, BR, CA, CL, FR, DE, IT, PT, RU, ES, SE, CH, NL, UK, US | 2015 04–2020 05 | coronavirus, cough, anosmia, ageusia |
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Saegner, T.; Austys, D. Forecasting and Surveillance of COVID-19 Spread Using Google Trends: Literature Review. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 12394. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912394
Saegner T, Austys D. Forecasting and Surveillance of COVID-19 Spread Using Google Trends: Literature Review. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(19):12394. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912394
Chicago/Turabian StyleSaegner, Tobias, and Donatas Austys. 2022. "Forecasting and Surveillance of COVID-19 Spread Using Google Trends: Literature Review" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 19: 12394. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912394
APA StyleSaegner, T., & Austys, D. (2022). Forecasting and Surveillance of COVID-19 Spread Using Google Trends: Literature Review. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(19), 12394. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912394