Integrating Data-Driven Insights into Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases

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Guest Editor
Department of Mathematics and Statisctics, Tshwane University of Technology, Private Bag X680, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
Interests: applied mathematics; infectious disease; social modeling; mathematical modeling science

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Guest Editor
School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, 1295 S. Knoles Drive, P.O. Box 5693, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Interests: public health; data modeling; computational epidemiology; disease ecology; biostatistics
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Guest Editor
School of Public Health, Clarke International University, Kampala P.O.Box 7782, Uganda
Interests: epidemiology; public health; data modelling; primary healthcare

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The modeling of infectious disease dynamics has become an indispensable tool in understanding and predicting the spread of diseases. With the rapid advancements in data collection techniques and the availability of large, complex datasets, there is now an unprecedented opportunity to enhance mathematical models with real-time data and insights. This Special Issue aims to explore the integration of data-driven methodologies into mathematical models of infectious diseases, focusing on how big data, machine learning, and advanced statistical techniques can improve the precision and predictive power of disease models.

Mathematical models have long been used to inform public health policies, understand epidemic behavior, and optimize intervention strategies. However, the integration of data-driven approaches, such as real-time epidemiological data, genetic sequencing, and environmental factors, is a critical step towards more accurate and dynamic models.

In this Special Issue, we invite contributions that investigate the fusion of data science with traditional epidemiological modeling, including but not limited to the following:

  1. Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Approaches: Exploring the use of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and other data-driven techniques to enhance the accuracy of epidemiological models, with a particular focus on predicting disease spread, identifying hotspots, and evaluating control strategies.
  2. Real-Time Surveillance and Data Integration: Examining the role of real-time data from surveillance systems (e.g., health records, mobile health data, social media) in informing and refining models of infectious diseases.
  3. Data-Driven Parameter Estimation and Model Calibration: Investigating novel methods for data assimilation, parameter estimation, and model calibration, allowing for more accurate and timely predictions of disease dynamics.
  4. Impact of Data Quality on Model Performance: Understanding how the quality and reliability of data (e.g., reporting biases, data gaps) influence the performance of mathematical models and strategies for addressing these challenges.
  5. Predictive Modeling of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Focusing on the application of data-driven models to anticipate and mitigate outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, including modeling the risk of zoonotic disease transmission and cross-species barriers.

By combining the power of mathematical modeling with the richness of data-driven insights, this Special Issue will contribute to the ongoing evolution of predictive tools for infectious disease control. We welcome original research articles, review papers, and case studies that reflect the latest advances in the integration of data-driven methods into mathematical modeling.

Dr. Adejimi Adeniji
Dr. Kayode Oshinubi
Dr. Allan Komakech
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • mathematical modeling
  • infectious diseases
  • epidemiology
  • data-driven modeling
  • machine learning
  • predictive analytics
  • real-time surveillance
  • One Health
  • outbreak prediction
  • disease prevention

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

13 pages, 1058 KB  
Article
AI-Driven Tuberculosis Hotspot Mapping to Optimize Active Case-Finding: Implementing the Epi-Control Platform in Uganda
by Geofrey Amanya, Sumbul Hashmi, Jessica Sarah Stow, Philip Tumwesigye, Bernadette Nkhata, Kelvin Roland Mubiru, Anne-Laure Budts, Matthys Gerhardus Potgieter, Seyoum Dejene Balcha, Muzamiru Bamuloba, Andiswa Zitho, Luzze Henry, Mary G. Nabukenya-Mudiope and Caroline Van Cauwelaert
Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2026, 11(2), 36; https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed11020036 - 28 Jan 2026
Viewed by 505
Abstract
Tuberculosis remains a major public health concern in Uganda, one among the thirty high TB burden countries globally. Despite national progress, gaps persist due to asymptomatic disease, diagnostic limitations, and uneven access to healthcare within the country. This study implemented the Epi-control platform, [...] Read more.
Tuberculosis remains a major public health concern in Uganda, one among the thirty high TB burden countries globally. Despite national progress, gaps persist due to asymptomatic disease, diagnostic limitations, and uneven access to healthcare within the country. This study implemented the Epi-control platform, an AI-driven predictive modelling tool, to predict community-level hotspots and support data-driven active case-finding (ACF). Using retrospective chest X-ray screening data, we integrated demographic, environmental, and human development indicators from open-source databases to model TB risk at sub-parish level. A proprietary Bayesian modelling framework was deployed and validated by comparing TB yields between predicted hotspots and non-hotspot locations. Across Uganda, the model identified significantly higher TB yields in hotspot areas (risk ratio = 1.69, 95% CI 1.41–2.02; p < 0.001). The Central and Western regions showed the highest concentrations of hotspots, consistent with their population density and urbanization patterns. The results show that the model prioritized areas with higher observed ACF yield in this retrospective dataset, supporting its potential operational use for screening prioritization under similar implementation conditions. The results demonstrate that AI-based predictive modelling can enhance the efficiency of ACF by targeting high-risk areas for screening. Integrating such predictive tools within national TB programmes may support screening planning and resource prioritization; prospective evaluation and external validation are needed to assess generalisability and incremental impact. Full article
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11 pages, 2050 KB  
Article
Epidemiological Trends and Predictive Modeling of Dengue Fever in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Countries
by Qian Ren, Ruoxi Li, Xiaojun Liu, Wei Hao, Xiaojie Zhou, Meide Liu, Hongjiang Zhang, Xinying Feng, Xiaogui Li, Ziwen Zhao, Weiwei Hu, Jianjun Zhang and Zhenjiang Xin
Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2025, 10(12), 329; https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed10120329 - 24 Nov 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1534
Abstract
Dengue fever is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases worldwide. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is a high-incidence area for dengue fever and a primary source of imported cases in China. Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) [...] Read more.
Dengue fever is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases worldwide. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is a high-incidence area for dengue fever and a primary source of imported cases in China. Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, this study statistically analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of dengue fever in ten ASEAN countries from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze long-term trends, and future trends from 2022 to 2031 were predicted. In 2021, the ASR of dengue fever varied widely among ASEAN countries. Singapore had the highest ASR (8715 cases per 100,000 persons). After 2000, countries, such as Brunei Darussalam, experienced short-term outbreaks. From 1990 to 2021, seven countries showed a significant upward trend in the ASR (AAPC > 0, p < 0.05). Predictions indicate that the Philippines will continue to see a rising ASR from 2022 to 2031, and the dengue fever situation in ASEAN countries is severe and heterogeneous. We recommend differentiated control measures according to the ASR level of the source country in China. The results can support the development of Sino-ASEAN collaborative strategies for dengue fever prevention and control. Full article
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