Advances in State-Space Modeling of Time Series

A special issue of Stats (ISSN 2571-905X).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2023) | Viewed by 2594

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Águeda School of Technology and Management (ESTGA) & Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), University of Aveiro, 3754-909 Águeda, Portugal
Interests: state-space models; Kalman filtering; linear models; time series analysis; environmental statistics; data analysis; distribution-free estimation
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Águeda School of Technology and Management (ESTGA) & Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), University of Aveiro, 3754-909 Águeda, Portugal
Interests: time series analysis; statistical modeling; state-space models; statistical inference; data analysis; count data; environmental statistics
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

It is our pleasure to announce a Special Issue on “Advances in State-Space Modeling of Time Series”.

The aim of this Special Issue is to provide a focus on recent advances in the field of time-series analysis and forecasting by state-space modeling.

This Issue welcomes original contributions to all aspects on the state-space modeling approach to time-series analysis and forecasting, including modeling, parameters estimation, data assimilation models and forecasting in real problems.

Special Issue topics include (but are not limited to):

  • Distribution-free inference for state-space models;
  • Outliers in state-space modeling;
  • Non-linear state-space models for time series;
  • Filtering methods for time series;
  • High-dimensional state-space modelling;
  • Change-point detection for state-space models;
  • Data assimilation approach and state-space models;
  • Forecasting by state-space models in real problems.

Dr. Marco André da Silva Costa
Dr. Magda Sofia Valério Monteiro
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • time-series analysis
  • state-space models
  • Kalman filter
  • linear and nonlinear models
  • inference in state-space models
  • outliers in time series
  • filtering and smoothing
  • forecasting

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

18 pages, 3946 KiB  
Article
Change Point Detection by State Space Modeling of Long-Term Air Temperature Series in Europe
by Magda Monteiro and Marco Costa
Stats 2023, 6(1), 113-130; https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6010007 - 4 Jan 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2371
Abstract
This work presents the statistical analysis of a monthly average temperatures time series in several European cities using a state space approach, which considers models with a deterministic seasonal component and a stochastic trend. Temperature rise rates in Europe seem to have increased [...] Read more.
This work presents the statistical analysis of a monthly average temperatures time series in several European cities using a state space approach, which considers models with a deterministic seasonal component and a stochastic trend. Temperature rise rates in Europe seem to have increased in the last decades when compared with longer periods. Therefore, change point detection methods, both parametric and non-parametric methods, were applied to the standardized residuals of the state space models (or some other related component) in order to identify these possible changes in the monthly temperature rise rates. All of the used methods have identified at least one change point in each of the temperature time series, particularly in the late 1980s or early 1990s. The differences in the average temperature trend are more evident in Eastern European cities than in Western Europe. The smoother-based t-test framework proposed in this work showed an advantage over the other methods, precisely because it considers the time correlation presented in time series. Moreover, this framework focuses the change point detection on the stochastic trend component. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in State-Space Modeling of Time Series)
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