Electrification of Transportation in Greece: A Study on CO₂ Emission Reduction Potential and Energy Mix Implications ^†

Abstract

Transportation accounts for about 20% of Europe’s CO₂ emissions, significantly affecting urban air quality and public health. Electric vehicles (EVs)—particularly BEVs and PHEVs—offer a solution by reducing local pollutants and noise. However, their net environmental benefit depends on the electricity generation mix. This study assesses the environmental impact of EV adoption in Greece through 2030, based on national energy targets. By comparing projected CO₂ emissions from BEVs and PHEVs with those of conventional vehicles, the analysis quantifies the emissions reduction potential of EVs within the evolving Greek energy mix, emphasizing the importance of renewable energy integration.

1. Introduction

The development of electromobility represents one central element of transforming existing energy systems to phase out fossil fuels and reduce global warming [1]. Vehicle use contributes significantly to climate change, with global car mobility continuing to rise. Road transport alone accounts for approximately 20% of Europe’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions [2]. Beyond greenhouse gases, vehicle emissions and noise severely impact urban air quality and public health. Road traffic is a major source of NO_x and PM_2.5 particles, increasing the risk of lung disease. World Health Organization (WHO) data indicates that more deaths are attributable to traffic-related air pollution than to accidents. European Environment Agency (EEA) reports confirm road transport as a primary source of atmospheric pollution, with emissions often exceeding safe limits. Road traffic noise also affects millions, negatively impacting health and even contributing to mortality [2].

Greece’s transport sector relies heavily on fossil fuels, which comprised 96% of its final energy consumption in 2021, resulting in 16.1 Mt of CO₂ emissions, primarily from road vehicles [3]. Despite ongoing decarbonization efforts, a substantial decrease in this high dependence is not expected in the immediately subsequent years, awaiting the release of more recent, comprehensive data. Electrification is projected to be the most impactful and cost-effective decarbonization technology for road transport in the near future [4].

Electric vehicles help to eliminate local pollution and noise. The categories that the public is the most interested in are the battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and the plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). PHEVs use a drivetrain powered by a battery and motor, an internal combustion engine (ICE), or a combination of both. Unlike hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), which only recharge their batteries through regenerative braking, PHEVs can also be recharged from external power sources. BEVs, in contrast, are powered solely by a battery and motor, producing no tailpipe emissions as they lack an ICE. While early electric cars were limited by range and battery technology, modern advancements enable ranges beyond 500 km with fast charging. This improves local air quality and reduces noise [5].

Depending on the electricity source, overall emissions can be significantly reduced, even when using coal power to charge. Using renewable energy for charging makes electric vehicles nearly emission-free and allows them to support renewable energy grid stability as storage [6]. Studies have shown that electric vehicles have the lowest overall greenhouse gas emissions, especially when powered by renewable energy sources, and highlighted the growing interest in EVs but also the slow adoption rate [7].

This paper seeks to provide a data-driven quantification of the potential CO₂ emission reductions resulting from increased EV adoption in Greece up to 2035, analyzed within the context of the nation’s evolving energy mix and benchmarked against the emissions of conventional passenger vehicles.

2. Methodology

This chapter details the methodological approach undertaken to analyze the evolving landscape of electricity generation in Greece and its interplay with the increasing adoption of electric vehicles. The study integrates historical data, contemporary statistics, and forward-looking projections sourced from key national energy entities and academic research [8] to construct a comprehensive understanding of this dynamic energy transition.

The foundation of this analysis rests upon several primary data sources. Electricity generation mix data, both historical and current, will be obtained directly from the Hellenic Independent Power Transmission Operator (ADMIE), also known as IPTO [9]. The quantitative core of the study will focus on data from the year 2024, establishing a crucial baseline for evaluating the present state of Greece’s electricity generation. Where feasible within the scope of the paper, historical data from preceding years may be incorporated to provide valuable context and illustrate the trajectory of changes in the generation portfolio over time.

Future projections for the energy mix up to the year 2030 will be primarily sourced from the Hellenic Ministry of Environment and Energy’s National Energy & Climate Plan (NECP) [10]. This article outlines the national targets for the integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) across various energy sectors and crucially specifies the mandated schedule for the complete phase-out of lignite-based electricity generation. Furthermore, where relevant to the analysis of electric vehicle adoption, data from the Greek electromobility plan, particularly its three major projected scenarios for EV uptake rates within the nation, may be incorporated [11]. The annual forecasted kilometers driven by a passenger vehicle up to 2035 will be based on literature forecasting future degrees of electrification, automation of transport and vehicle sharing [12,13,14].

To accurately estimate the electricity demand arising from the expanding fleet of electric vehicles, this study will draw upon established sample consumption profiles that provides typical electricity consumption rates for EVs, both BEVs and PHEVs. The specific source for these rates, consistent with the original paper’s methodology, is a well-known online database [15] and specifically for vehicles after 2021 belonging in the Euro 6 d/e category or later. The average consumption of pure petrol vehicles for the same emissions standard (Euro6 d/e) is also extracted from the database for comparison purposes. Additionally, for the analysis of PHEVs, a utility factor, representing the average proportion of distance driven using electric power equal to 68%, will be employed. This factor is sourced from the seminal work of Hao et al. (2021) [16], aligning with the precedent set by the original paper. These values are considered representative of real-world driving behaviors and charging patterns observed for PHEVs.

The calculation of CO₂ emissions associated with electricity generation took into account the use of specific emission factors for the primary fossil fuel sources utilized in Greece, namely lignite and natural gas. These critical emission factors are derived from reports published by the Agios Dimitrios and Megalopoli power plants, alongside the EPRTR Air Releases Dataset published by the European Environment Agency (EEA), and will be utilized to calculate the CO₂ released from BEV and PHEV electric mode driving [17,18,19]. As for the CO₂ pollutant output from the internal combustion present in petrol-PHEVs and petrol internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), emission factors provided by the company Emisia, responsible for developing the COPERT Tier 3 Methodology, will be used [20].

For the purposes of having a direct comparison in terms of CO₂ pollution emitted from EVs, a hypothetical pure petrol vehicle fleet scenario is considered in which all expected BEVs and PHEVs up to 2035 are replaced by petrol ICE cars, so that their total number remains the same each year as the EV forecast.

3. Results and Discussion

Using the expected consumption of electricity (or gasoline for ICEVs and petrol-PHEVs), the emission factors for CO₂, charging losses, and an estimate of distance driven per year the total yearly expected CO₂ output can be calculated. Dividing by the distance travelled, the final passenger car CO₂ per kilometer driven can be extracted. This process is done for all already mentioned vehicle types, which are BEVs, petrol-PHEVs and conventional petrol ICEVs. In Figure 1, the total electricity demand per EV fleet size scenario (a, b and c) in the 2025 to 2035 interval is portrayed, including the percentage compared to the electricity generated that year from the Greek power sector. Even in the drastic electrification scenario, the EV electricity demand peaks at only 8.41% of annual electricity generation which can easily be satisfied by RES generation, which is forecasted to be 93.4% that year [10].

According to Figure 2a, the total amount of CO₂ that is released by passenger EV vehicles each year is always lower than using equally numbered petrol cars as an alternative. By opting for electric cars there’s a 43% benefit over petrol cars in 2025 which is maximized in 2035 at 75%.

This benefit describes how much less CO₂ is emitted that year by EVs compared to using petrol-ICEVs as a percentage reduction. The benefit in avoided emissions rises slightly faster up to 2029, the first year in which the Greek electricity grid becomes lignite fossil fuel free. From the analysis done per passenger vehicle and per kilometer driven split into the BEV, PHEV and ICEV categories shown in Figure 2b, BEVs are always the best option with their CO₂ output decreasing even more each year. Even before lignite plant shutdowns in 2028, pure battery EVs are 72% better than petrol cars in 2025 and petrol-PHEVs just 14% better. The optimal performance is achieved in 2035 with BEVs having 96% less emissions than petrol cars. However, this is not true for plug-ins which lag behind BEVs, offering only 31% less pollution in the last year of the decade (2035).

4. Conclusions

In this study, the annual total forecasted EV fleet CO₂ pollution and the emissions per vehicle per kilometer for CO₂ were calculated—based on the three EV penetration scenarios of the Greek NECP and electromobility plan—for the time interval from 2025 to 2035. Based on the results, it was shown that for a “greener” and more fossil-fuel-independent transition to electric transport, only BEVs offer a low carbon solution to the transportation sector. BEVs solve many problems such as GHG output and noise being removed from urban environments, which in turn also improve public health, air quality and living conditions. Those upsides are not found in plug-in hybrid cars which are an in-between option that delays true decarbonization of transport and climate goals. Additional research could offer more insights as to whether factors, such as varying utilization factors for PHEVs which do not always use the same amount of electricity but depend on charging and refueling patters and driver behavior.