Populations, Volume 2, Issue 1 (March 2026) – 9 articles

This study adheres to a logistic regression modeling protocol originally developed for long-range intelligence analyses and employs data from UN demographic estimates (the 2024 revision) to generate a set of statistical functions that suggest a moderately strong relationship between increasing median age and the probability of a persistently positive international net migration rate (NMR). According to this relationship, the post-Cold War probability (data from 1990 to 2015) of experiencing a persistently positive net migration rate (defined as a +NMR, directly followed by five consecutive years of +NMRs) rose from less than 0.12 at a population median age of 15 years, to a probability greater than 0.55 at 36 years, and then to more than 0.77 at 45 years. The author hypothesizes a speculative set of predictions aimed at providing long-term tests for this model. These predictions assume that, by a median age of 36.0 years, at least one country in the hypothesized cluster of countries will have shifted to experiencing a series of +NMRs. If, as this model predicts, the age-structurally associated transition to sustained +NMRs transpires by 2055, there could be a substantially larger pool of migrant net-receiving states in parts of Asia, Latin America, and North Africa than the UN’s future scenarios currently project. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic introduced an additional major stressor for families in the Caribbean, a region already shaped by environmental risk and socioeconomic vulnerability. This study examined changes in family resilience across pandemic phases among English-speaking Caribbean populations, drawing on Walsh’s family resilience framework, which emphasizes belief systems, organizational processes, and communication. Using a convergent parallel mixed methods design, quantitative and qualitative data were integrated from two studies conducted before and during pandemic restrictions and after restrictions were lifted. Survey data were collected from 198 families across English-speaking Caribbean nations, and in-depth interviews were conducted with 31 families from Grenada, Jamaica, and Trinidad. Quantitative analyses indicated a significant decline in family resilience during periods of heightened restrictions, followed by a return to pre-pandemic levels. Qualitative findings identified faith, family connectedness, communication, resourcefulness, and a positive outlook as key processes supporting adaptation during the crisis. Overall, results suggest that while family resilience at the population level was strained during the pandemic, it demonstrated recovery over time. Policies and interventions that strengthen communication supports and community- and faith-based resources may enhance family resilience and preparedness for future public health and environmental disruptions in the Caribbean. Full article

Indigenous Kichwa women in the Ecuadorian Amazon experience disproportionately high levels of obstetric violence, yet their experiences remain largely absent from national demographic data. This study aims to measure the prevalence and forms of obstetric violence among Kichwa women while demonstrating the utility of community-designed demographic tools for documenting marginalized reproductive health experiences. We developed a participatory survey in collaboration with Kichwa midwives and women, several of whom are co-authors, and administered 139 structured surveys and 69 ethnographic interviews across 43 Indigenous communities in the Napo province to women who had given birth in a public hospital within the past five years. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics to estimate prevalence across domains of obstetric violence, and interviews were thematically analyzed to contextualize these patterns. Findings indicate pervasive obstetric violence, including non-consensual procedures, verbal and psychological abuse, structural barriers to care, and suppression of traditional practices such as midwifery and plant medicine. Over 80% of participants reported at least one non-consensual procedure and at least one form of cultural or epistemic suppression, with most experiencing violence across multiple domains. These results position obstetric violence in the Amazon as a compounded, population-level exposure shaped by structural, environmental, and cultural determinants, underscoring the need for intercultural health reforms and Indigenous-led models of health governance. Full article

Italy’s current migrant integration policies show limited effectiveness in fostering genuine social inclusion, particularly for migrant women who face compounded, intersectional discrimination. Although Italy has adopted international frameworks such as CEDAW and the Istanbul Convention, their implementation remains fragmented and weak. The absence of structured, accessible language courses and personalized integration pathways disproportionately affects migrant women, especially those confined to domestic roles or constrained by cultural barriers. The analysis highlights the Migrant and Inclusive Communities (MeCI) project as an example of a successful local initiative that used technology to enhance linguistic and social inclusion. However, its time-limited nature constrained by temporary funding and local commitment reveals broader systemic failures, including the lack of institutionalization of effective practices and excessive reliance on local actors and short-term funding. The article also stresses the importance of recognizing refugee status through a gender-sensitive lens, acknowledging forms of persecution specific to women. Overall, Italy’s integration policies are undermined by the absence of a coherent national strategy, a focus on emergency and security measures, and insufficient long-term planning. The document calls for comprehensive, rights-based, and gender-sensitive policies that prioritize empowerment, participation, and social inclusion. Full article

Infertility affects 10–30% of couples globally, with significant psychological and social impacts in sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility is closely tied to identity and social status. To explore how couples’ understanding of infertility causes influences their treatment-seeking behaviours and healthcare decision-making processes in Ghana, this cross-sectional qualitative study used in-depth interviews with 24 married participants (nine dyads and six individuals) experiencing current or past infertility in Greater Accra, Ghana, from August to October 2023. Data were analysed using thematic analysis with NVivo version 15. Couples demonstrated comprehensive knowledge of infertility causes spanning medical, spiritual, cultural, and lifestyle factors, although they lacked knowledge of clinical diagnostic criteria. Three main treatment pathways emerged: medical/orthodox, herbal, and spiritual interventions, pursued either sequentially or concurrently. Decision-making was influenced by internal factors (treatment effectiveness, financial constraints, and safety concerns) and external factors (family influence and peer testimonials). Four distinct navigation strategies were identified: informed notification, trial periods and evaluation, parallel relationship management, and strategic sequencing. Couples experiencing infertility are sophisticated healthcare consumers who skilfully navigate pluralistic healthcare systems through strategic decision-making. Rather than representing non-compliance, their multimodal approaches reflect rational responses to structural constraints and cultural values. Healthcare systems should recognise and accommodate these navigation strategies to improve therapeutic relationships and outcomes. Full article

China has experienced a population decline since 2022, and its total fertility rate has dropped to about 1.0 in 2025. This is despite the lifting of the one-child policy in 2015 and the pivot to the two-child policy and three-child policy in, respectively, 2016 and 2021. Based on a review of recent research, this paper provides an interpretation that the continued fertility decline reflects a perfect storm of socioeconomic and demographic processes, long-term effects of the one-child policy, and unprecedented social changes in Chinese society. Socioeconomic and demographic changes since the 1950s prepared the ground for the “late, sparse, few” policy, resulting in a sharp fertility decline in the 1970s. While the one-child policy that followed did not result in a fertility decline in the 1980s, its effects appear to be long-lasting, including concentrated investment by the “inverted family” in the only child that drives up society-wide childrearing costs. Significant improvement in women’s educational attainment, individualistic orientation that prioritizes personal goals, increased diversity in family structure, such as one-person households, and changing views about getting married and having children have all contributed to continued downward pressure on fertility. These findings hint at the relevance of the concept of the second demographic transition for China and suggest that policy is only effective if it is aligned with what people want. Full article

Recent policy reports and state briefs continue to highlight the trend of out-migration from California. This outflow has been pronounced over the last three years, revealing a substantial net loss (i.e., net migration) of approximately 740,000 residents. However, there has been comparatively less emphasis on new residents moving to California. Over the past decade, California has attracted substantial in-migration from both domestic and international sources with annual inflows often exceeding 300,000 individuals. As such, studying in-migration is noteworthy as it shapes economic, political, and social landscapes. In-migration can alter the demographic profiles of regions, thereby impacting community dynamics, cultural diversity, and the provision of social services. Using pooled data from the American Community Survey (ACS) from 2021 to 2023 and employing a two-way fixed effects regression framework, I study how temporal changes in racial and ethnic composition, age structure, educational attainment, and economic indicators influence in-migration rates per 1000 residents at the public use microdata level (PUMA). The analysis reveals that higher proportions of Asian and Hispanic populations, as well as an increased share of college-educated residents, are positively associated with in-migration. Notably, higher supplemental poverty rates are also associated with greater in-migration, a counterintuitive finding that may reflect mobility toward affordable housing markets. These findings emphasize the importance of recognizing demographic and intra-regional variability, which can aid policymakers and planners in assessing and delivering public services. Full article

Many states around the world create an unprotected class of migrants by legally categorizing them as “unauthorized”. Yet, we have a limited understanding of the state of knowledge that has resulted from this empirical phenomenon, particularly outside the U.S. and over time. In this article, we map the state of knowledge on unauthorized migration by analyzing the last 30 years of papers published in a leading migration journal. Articles were identified through a comprehensive keyword-based search strategy and analyzed using a computational pipeline that combines natural language processing and large language model-assisted classification. Our findings reveal a persistent empirical emphasis on Mexico–U.S. migration, with economic drivers and disparities, as well as immigration laws and policies, dominating articles’ content. Our analysis also identifies underexplored or peripheral topics, including studies on gender or the environment, highlighting the need for more diversified, cross-national research. Ultimately, by providing a detailed account of our computational mapping approach, we hope this study will serve as a blueprint for future scholars to track how migration research evolves into the future. Full article