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Article

Why Above-Average Rainfall Occurred in Northern Northeast Brazil during the 2019 El Niño?

by
Felipe M. de Andrade
1,*,
Victor A. Godoi
2 and
José A. Aravéquia
1
1
National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000, SP, Brazil
2
OceanPact Ltd., Rio de Janeiro 21941-615, RJ, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Meteorology 2023, 2(3), 307-328; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030019
Submission received: 26 April 2023 / Revised: 19 June 2023 / Accepted: 27 June 2023 / Published: 12 July 2023

Abstract

El Niño is generally associated with negative rainfall anomalies (below-average rainfall) in northern Northeast Brazil (NNEB). In 2019, however, the opposite rainfall pattern was observed during an El Niño episode. Here, we explore the mechanisms that overwhelmed typical El Niño-related conditions and resulted in positive rainfall anomalies (above-average rainfall) in NNEB. We focus on the austral autumn when El Niño is most prone to rainfall anomalies in the region. The analysis of several datasets, including weather station data, satellite data, reanalysis data, and modelled data derived from a dry linear baroclinic model, allowed us to identify that the austral autumn 2019 above-average rainfall in NNEB was likely associated with four combined factors; these are (1) the weak intensity of the 2019 El Niño; (2) the negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode; (3) local and remote diabatic heating anomalies, especially over the western South Pacific and tropical South Atlantic, which resulted in anticyclonic and cyclonic circulations in the upper and lower troposphere, respectively, over the tropical South Atlantic; and (4) sub-seasonal atmospheric convection anomalies over the western South Pacific, which reinforced the low-frequency convection signal over that region. This latter factor suggests the influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on rainfall in NNEB during the first ten days of March 2019. We discuss these mechanisms in detail and provide evidence that, even during an El Niño event, above-average rainfall in NNEB in the austral autumn may occur, and its modulation is not limited to the influence of a single climate phenomenon. Our results may assist in the planning of several crucial activities, such as water resources management and agriculture.
Keywords: rainfall; northern Northeast Brazil; El Niño; anomalous heat sources; Madden–Julian Oscillation; linear baroclinic model; influence functions rainfall; northern Northeast Brazil; El Niño; anomalous heat sources; Madden–Julian Oscillation; linear baroclinic model; influence functions

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MDPI and ACS Style

de Andrade, F.M.; Godoi, V.A.; Aravéquia, J.A. Why Above-Average Rainfall Occurred in Northern Northeast Brazil during the 2019 El Niño? Meteorology 2023, 2, 307-328. https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030019

AMA Style

de Andrade FM, Godoi VA, Aravéquia JA. Why Above-Average Rainfall Occurred in Northern Northeast Brazil during the 2019 El Niño? Meteorology. 2023; 2(3):307-328. https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030019

Chicago/Turabian Style

de Andrade, Felipe M., Victor A. Godoi, and José A. Aravéquia. 2023. "Why Above-Average Rainfall Occurred in Northern Northeast Brazil during the 2019 El Niño?" Meteorology 2, no. 3: 307-328. https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030019

APA Style

de Andrade, F. M., Godoi, V. A., & Aravéquia, J. A. (2023). Why Above-Average Rainfall Occurred in Northern Northeast Brazil during the 2019 El Niño? Meteorology, 2(3), 307-328. https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030019

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