Modelling Internet Routing State Growth for IPv6

We examine the growth of Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) routing state from 2010 to 2025. The global IPv4 address space has been exhausted, and the transition to IPv6 is ongoing. Using publicly accessible data from the RIPE Route Collectors (RRCs), we show that growth in the number of globally visible IPv6 routing prefixes follows different models over time, reflecting different growth patterns: exponential, power-law, and stretched-exponential. In addition to building models using publicly available RIPE data, we use this data source to demonstrate that our analysis holds across different Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) around the world and has predictive value. We provide in-depth analyses of IPv6 routing state growth, and we believe these are the first such analyses. Additionally, we highlight previous similar analyses of other aspects of network characteristics (such as topology and network traffic), and show that our analyses provide new insights. Specifically, we show the following: (1) previous models that have worked well for other network characteristics do not work well for routing state; (2) growth patterns for IPv6 routing state have changed significantly over time; (3) growth patterns cannot be described by a single model, and need to be analysed in a piecewise fashion; (4) fitting of previous data might not necessarily result in good predictive quality, and we identify the factors that may affect the predictive quality of a model and the predictive models that are suitable at the current time. Our analyses include metrics for assessing model fit. Overall, we observe a decrease in the rate of growth of IPv6 routing state, while the overall use of IPv6 continues to grow. We provide a critical evaluation of our approach, and also discuss possible factors affecting the growth of global IPv6 routing state.