Geostatistical Reconstruction of Atmospheric Refractivity Fields Using Universal Kriging

Atmospheric refractivity governs the propagation behavior of electromagnetic waves in the lower troposphere. Accurate spatial characterization of this parameter is essential for optimizing communication, radar, and navigation systems. This study presents a geostatistical framework for generating high-resolution refractivity maps using Universal Kriging (UK) applied to meteorological observations from a dense network of automatic weather stations in the Galician region (NW Spain). The methodology explicitly models the non-stationary vertical structure of the atmosphere by decomposing the refractivity field into a deterministic altitude-dependent drift and a stochastic residual component characterized by an exponential variogram. Validation, performed using independent test stations bounding the regional vertical profile, demonstrates that the UK approach significantly outperforms Ordinary Kriging (OK). UK not only reduces mean errors and improves linear agreement, but critically minimizes systematic bias and extreme outlier occurrences ($P_{95}$). Beyond accurate spatial interpolation, the dynamically estimated vertical drift retrieves the macroscopic refractivity gradient, serving as a direct, real-time diagnostic tool to classify anomalous radio-frequency (RF) propagation regimes (e.g., super-refraction and ducting) and supporting robust decision-making in complex topographies.