Coastal Tourism Recovery amid COVID-19: Insights from a Participatory System Dynamics Approach
Abstract
:1. Introduction
Study Objectives
2. Case Study: Nelson Mandela Bay
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Stage 1—Individual Stakeholder Meetings
- What key variables do you think are at the centre of the problem?
- What is driving the problem?
- What are the knock-on effects (positive and negative) of this problem on coastal tourism in the bay?
- How do you expect coastal tourism to recover?
- By when do you expect it to recover?
- What interventions could assist in a rapid and sustainable recovery of the tourism sector?
3.2. Stage 2—Group Modelling Workshops
4. Results
4.1. Individual Stakeholder Maps
Stakeholder Group | No. of Participants | Key Perspectives | Areas of Intervention |
---|---|---|---|
Local Government | 3 | COVID-19 infections Healthcare strain COVID-19 fatalities % vaccinated Tourism revenues Tourism arrivals Tourism jobs Tourism budget | Vaccination awareness COVID-19 relief funding Public health preparedness Temporary employment grants Public infrastructure maintenance Tourist infrastructure upgrades Safety and security Beach management |
Non-Profit Organisations | 1 | Marketing Word-of-mouth effect Tourism experience COVID “preparedness” | Destination marketing Tourism innovation Visitor services Research and development Beach accreditation programmes |
Accommodation and Business Representatives | 3 | Bed-night sales Accommodation occupancy Tourist supply and demand Tourist COVID-19 protocols | Accommodation safety compliance Accommodation standards Tourism development Tourism investment |
Tour Operators | 1 | Tour participation Market shifts Tour specials Marine aesthetic value | Tour marketing Conservation and awareness |
Total = 8 |
4.2. Synthesis Map
4.3. Scenario Planning with Stakeholders
- A business-as-usual or baseline scenario, which demonstrated the results under current governance decision-making strategies.
- A hypothetical governance control scenario, which specifically aimed to investigate a desirable tourism recovery strategy, assuming that authorities have control of the situation, through enabling protective COVID-19 measures and ensuring effective tourism management.
- A hypothetical governance instability scenario, which aimed to portray a situation where the uncertain progression of the pandemic, combined with lax tourism response interventions, leads to a less desirable recovery trajectory.
5. Discussion and Conclusions
5.1. Discussion of Main Results
5.2. Concluding Remarks
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
“We don’t often get a helicopter view such as this. It has provided stakeholders to see their roles and how everyone should collaborate” “The causal map gives us an orientation of the variables and how we can change and make the biggest impacts through different actions” “The model elaborates on different interventions from different role-players and how these interventions can influence the behaviour in a positive manner” “It is difficult to predict the future, but we see the value in how this tool provides an indication of what can happen and for planning purposes this is very important” “We hope the tool is implemented and used to inform tourism recovery” |
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Vermeulen-Miltz, E.; Clifford-Holmes, J.K.; Lombard, A.T.; Snow, B. Coastal Tourism Recovery amid COVID-19: Insights from a Participatory System Dynamics Approach. Tour. Hosp. 2023, 4, 435-450. https://doi.org/10.3390/tourhosp4030027
Vermeulen-Miltz E, Clifford-Holmes JK, Lombard AT, Snow B. Coastal Tourism Recovery amid COVID-19: Insights from a Participatory System Dynamics Approach. Tourism and Hospitality. 2023; 4(3):435-450. https://doi.org/10.3390/tourhosp4030027
Chicago/Turabian StyleVermeulen-Miltz, Estee, Jai Kumar Clifford-Holmes, Amanda Talita Lombard, and Bernadette Snow. 2023. "Coastal Tourism Recovery amid COVID-19: Insights from a Participatory System Dynamics Approach" Tourism and Hospitality 4, no. 3: 435-450. https://doi.org/10.3390/tourhosp4030027