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Article

Assessing Existing and Potential Future Vulnerability to Water Resources Changing Conditions Using Dynamic Composite Indices in Latin America

by
Christos A. Karavitis
1,
Constantina Vasilakou
1,
Dimitrios E. Tsesmelis
2,*,
Nikolaos A. Skondras
3,
Panagiotis D. Oikonomou
1,4,
Kleomenis Kalogeropoulos
5,
Panagiotis A. Balabanis
6,
Rodrigo Maia
7,8,
Enrique Playán
9,
Nery Zapata
10,
Jorge Gironás
10,11,12,
Luiz Gabriel Azevedo
13,
Monica Porto
14,
Manuel Vanegas
15,
Santiago Maria Reyna
16,
Dionysis Assimacopoulos
17,
João Pedro Pêgo
7,8,
Andreas Tsatsaris
5,
Garyfalia Economou
18,
Stavros Alexandris
1,
Vassilia Fassouli
19,
Konstantinos Chatzithomas
1,
Iordanis Moustakidis
20 and
Pantelis E. Barouchas
2add Show full author list remove Hide full author list
1
Department of Natural Resources Development and Agricultural Engineering, Agricultural University of Athens, 11855 Athens, Greece
2
Department of Agriculture, University of Patrai, Messolonghion Campus, 30200 Messolonghion, Greece
3
Global Water Partnership-Mediterranean (GWP-Med), 10556 Athens, Greece
4
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
5
Department of Surveying and Geoinformatics Engineering, University of West Attica, 28 Saint. Spyridon, 12243 Aegaleo, Greece
6
European Commission, Directorate General Research and Innovation, B4—Ocean, Seas and Waters, 1049 Brussels, Belgium
7
Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Georrecursos, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
8
Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research (CLIMAR), Terminal de Cruzeiros de Leixões, Av. General Norton de Matos s/n, 4450-208 Matosinhos, Portugal
9
Agriculture and Natural Resources Group, Soil and Water Department, Estación Experimental de Aula Dei (EEAD), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), 50059 Zaragoza, Spain
10
Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Ave. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, Chile
11
Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, Chile
12
Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable (CEDEUS), Santiago 7820436, Chile
13
Division of Social Environmental and Governance Inter-American Development Bank, 1300 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20577, USA
14
Civil Engineering Department, Hydraulics and Sanitation, Polytechnic School, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paolo 05508-220, Brazil
15
Departamento de Proyectos, Tecnología de Calidad, S.A. de C.V., San Pedro Garza García 66297, Mexico
16
Hydraulics Works and Environmental Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Cordoba 5000, Argentina
17
School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), 15772 Athens, Greece
18
Department of Crop Science, Agricultural University of Athens, 11855 Athens, Greece
19
Land Reclamation, Soil and Water Resources, Ministry of Rural Development and Food, 10176 Athens, Greece
20
Mathematics, Science and Engineering Department, South Mountain Community College, Phoenix, AZ 85042, USA
 
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*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Earth 2026, 7(3), 81; https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7030081 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 12 March 2026 / Revised: 16 April 2026 / Accepted: 12 May 2026 / Published: 18 May 2026
Versions Notes

Abstract

Integrated water resources management uses decision-making and planning techniques in developing long-term strategies to ensure the sustainability of water resources and the resulting water security of future generations. Policy formulation through such integrated planning interlinks with indicators serving as an information channel to decision-makers. The present effort aims to develop a specific methodology using technical, environmental, and social indicators, formulating composite indices to identify vulnerability to changing water conditions. Thus, a set of indices developed through a multiyear research effort in Latin America, namely Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI), Water Stress Vulnerability Index (WSTVI), Water Scarcity Vulnerability Index (WSCVI), and Water Changing Conditions Vulnerability Index (WCCVI). Time series analysis covered the years 1991–2020, whereas the reference period was 1961–2020. Climate and water resources information is mainly obtained from ERA5-Land reanalysis; social, economic, infrastructure, and institutional data derived from harmonized sources (COROADO Project-EU, FAO, The World Bank, WHO/UNICEF JMP). Statistical tests and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) identified the indicators included in the equations for each index. Expert knowledge played an important role in the development as data were collected according to known local specificities and global trends, as well as scientific criteria and methodological rigor regarding the proposed new indices. Finally, application of such a framework for spatially explicit analysis indicated higher levels of vulnerability to changing water conditions in the northern part of Mexico, the Andes, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Central America, and lower levels in Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina. This application demonstrates that the produced composite indices may be implemented with matching success all over Latin America and, therefore, in diversified natural, technical, environmental, social and economic conditions.
Keywords: integrated water resources management; vulnerability assessment; contingency planning; statistical analysis; GIS integrated water resources management; vulnerability assessment; contingency planning; statistical analysis; GIS

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Karavitis, C.A.; Vasilakou, C.; Tsesmelis, D.E.; Skondras, N.A.; Oikonomou, P.D.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Balabanis, P.A.; Maia, R.; Playán, E.; Zapata, N.; et al. Assessing Existing and Potential Future Vulnerability to Water Resources Changing Conditions Using Dynamic Composite Indices in Latin America. Earth 2026, 7, 81. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7030081

AMA Style

Karavitis CA, Vasilakou C, Tsesmelis DE, Skondras NA, Oikonomou PD, Kalogeropoulos K, Balabanis PA, Maia R, Playán E, Zapata N, et al. Assessing Existing and Potential Future Vulnerability to Water Resources Changing Conditions Using Dynamic Composite Indices in Latin America. Earth. 2026; 7(3):81. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7030081

Chicago/Turabian Style

Karavitis, Christos A., Constantina Vasilakou, Dimitrios E. Tsesmelis, Nikolaos A. Skondras, Panagiotis D. Oikonomou, Kleomenis Kalogeropoulos, Panagiotis A. Balabanis, Rodrigo Maia, Enrique Playán, Nery Zapata, and et al. 2026. "Assessing Existing and Potential Future Vulnerability to Water Resources Changing Conditions Using Dynamic Composite Indices in Latin America" Earth 7, no. 3: 81. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7030081

APA Style

Karavitis, C. A., Vasilakou, C., Tsesmelis, D. E., Skondras, N. A., Oikonomou, P. D., Kalogeropoulos, K., Balabanis, P. A., Maia, R., Playán, E., Zapata, N., Gironás, J., Azevedo, L. G., Porto, M., Vanegas, M., Reyna, S. M., Assimacopoulos, D., Pêgo, J. P., Tsatsaris, A., Economou, G., ... Barouchas, P. E. (2026). Assessing Existing and Potential Future Vulnerability to Water Resources Changing Conditions Using Dynamic Composite Indices in Latin America. Earth, 7(3), 81. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7030081

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