Predictive Analysis of Hydrological Variables in the Cahaba Watershed: Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy for Water Resource Management Using Time-Series and Machine Learning Models
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Methodology for Hybrid Model Design
- (A)
- Apply the Prophet time-series forecasting model to predict key hydrological variables and analyze annual variations for better understanding of climate-driven hydrological patterns.
- (B)
- To integrate machine learning models (multi-output regression with polynomial features) into Prophet time-series forecasting models to better understand the complex relationships between hydrological input and output variables.
- (C)
- To validate and evaluate the performance of predictive models by comparing Prophet-machine learning model outputs with SWAT model simulations in the Cahaba watershed.
- (D)
- Perform comparative analysis of predicted vs. actual water balance components and hydrological responses under both present (2010–2022) and future (2030–2042) climate scenarios in the Cahaba watershed.
2.2. Study Area and Benchmark Modeling with SWAT Model
2.3. Hydrological Data Predictions Using Prophet Library
2.4. Time-Series Forecasting with Prophet Model
2.5. Fusing Machine Learning Model for Enhanced Prophet-SWAT Predictions
2.5.1. Machine Learning Model Selection and Interpretability
2.5.2. Model Training and Evaluation Strategy
2.6. Hydrological Scenarios
3. Results
3.1. SWAT Model Accuracy and Calibration Settings
3.2. SWAT vs. SWAT-Prophet-ML for Water Balance Predictions in Present Climate
Limitations in Capturing Peak Events
3.3. SWAT vs. SWAT-Prophet-ML for Hydrological Response Predictions in Present Climate
3.4. SWAT-Prophet-ML-Based Water Balance Predictions in Future Climate
3.5. SWAT vs. SWAT-Prophet-ML for Hydrological Response Predictions in Future Climate
3.5.1. Limitations of the SWAT-Prophet-ML Model in Future Climate
3.6. Performance Evaluation of Various Modeling Techniques in Present Climate
Evaluation Methodology and Use of SWAT as Reference
- Lack of continuous, high-resolution observational data: Field-measured observational data for all required hydrological components (e.g., groundwater contribution, soil moisture, sediment yield) were not available at finer spatial and temporal resolution for the entire watershed.
- The SWAT model was previously calibrated and validated using available observed data (streamflow, surface runoff) for the Cahaba River Basin). Its outputs are, therefore, treated as a reliable physical baseline to evaluate enhancements from additional forecasting layers.
- This modeling chain focuses on enhancing SWAT forecasts through decomposition (Prophet) and regression (ML), not replacing SWAT. Hence, performance is measured relative to the benchmark simulation rather than raw observations.
4. Discussion and Future Work
4.1. Enhancing Model Generalization Under Future Climate Regimes
- Scenario-Based Synthetic Training: Future iterations of this model will incorporate SWAT-generated outputs under multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios as training inputs, expanding the model’s exposure to a broader range of climatic conditions.
- Data Augmentation: We plan to generate perturbed versions of climate input variables (e.g., rainfall intensity shifts, temperature anomalies) using Gaussian noise or bootstrapping methods to improve robustness to rare or extreme events.
- Physically Informed Constraints: Incorporating mass balance principles directly into the loss function or model architecture (e.g., conservation-aware ML or physics-guided neural networks) will ensure hydrologic plausibility, even when data distributions deviate from historical norms.
- Transfer Learning Techniques: Pretraining models on global climate-simulated datasets and fine-tuning on watershed-specific data could improve adaptability to novel climate regimes, especially in data-scarce basins.
4.2. Comparative Evaluation with Ensemble and Deep Learning Models
4.3. Uncertainty in Prophet Forecasts and Practical Implications
- Under present climate conditions, Prophet’s uncertainty remains relatively narrow for smooth variables like ET and PET, enhancing confidence in monthly water demand and planning decisions.
- However, for highly variable phenomena such as precipitation and snowmelt, especially under future climate projections (2030–2042), the uncertainty intervals widen substantially. This reflects not only inherent input variability but also the model’s inability to anticipate regime shifts or outliers outside the historical data distribution.
- Because the downstream ML model in the SWAT-Prophet-ML pipeline depends on Prophet outputs, errors or overconfident predictions from Prophet may propagate, potentially affecting the reliability of surface runoff, water yield, or sediment yield predictions.
- Quantile regression forests or Bayesian models to generate more robust uncertainty estimates.
- Calibration of Prophet’s uncertainty intervals using historical residual validation.
- Monte Carlo dropout or ensemble-based simulations to propagate uncertainty through the full pipeline (SWAT → Prophet → ML).
- Expressing results not just as deterministic outputs but as probabilistic forecasts that better support risk-informed decision-making.
5. Conclusions
- Model demonstrated strong predictive performance for water yield (R2 = 0.75), surface runoff (R2 = 0.70), evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration (RMSE = 15–20 mm)
- Accurate modeling of seasonal trends and smooth climatic behavior was achieved using the Prophet-decomposed features.
- Precipitation and snowmelt showed higher variability and were less accurately predicted (RMSE = 30–50 mm and 5–10 mm, respectively).
- Model underperformed, especially for variables like groundwater flow and sediment yield, where the hybrid model failed to capture peak years or sharp shifts.
- The main cause was the model’s reliance on stationary historical patterns, which are not representative of future climate variability.
- Lack of training on non-stationary or perturbed climate data
- Absence of physical constraints in ML predictions
- Limited capacity to simulate extreme events or abrupt hydrological shifts
- Scenario-based training using synthetic climate inputs from multiple representative concentration pathways
- Data augmentation techniques to simulate rare or extreme meteorological conditions
- Physically informed modeling, integrating hydrological constraints into the ML component
- Model benchmarking using ensemble and deep learning with SHAP-based feature interpretation
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Data | Data Sources | Information | Period | Address/Location |
---|---|---|---|---|
Digital elevation models (DEMs) | Web GIS | Raster, 30 m | 2011 | WebGIS—Geographic Information Systems Resource—GIS |
Land use land cover | United States Geological Survey, USGS | Raster, 30 m | 2011 | Annual National Land Cover Database|U.S. Geological Survey |
Soil data | United States Department of Agriculture, USDA | Raster, 60 m | 2011 | Web Soil Survey—Home |
Climate data | Climate.gov | Daily | 1980–2010 2010–2040 | Search|Climate Data Online (CDO)|National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) |
Hydrological data | United States Geological Survey, USGS | Monthly | 2011–2017 | Cahaba River at Trussville, Al.—USGS Water Data for the Nation |
Library | Purpose | Description |
---|---|---|
Pandas | Data manipulation and analysis | Pandas provides data structures and functions needed to work with structured data. It is useful for data cleaning, transformation, and analysis. |
NumPy | Numerical computing | NumPy provides support for arrays and matrices, along with a collection of mathematical functions to operate on these data structures. It is used for numerical operations in Python 3.13 |
Scikit-Learn | Machine learning and data mining | Scikit-learn is a powerful library for machine learning that includes tools for classification, regression, clustering, and dimensionality reduction. |
Matplotlib | Data visualization | Matplotlib is a plotting library for creating static, interactive, and animated visualizations in Python. It is highly customizable and supports a wide range of plotting settings. |
Parameter | Description | Calibration Range | Final Calibrated Value | NSE | R2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CN2 | SCS curve number | 1.00–2.00 | 1.63 | 0.430 | 0.456 |
ESCO | Soil evaporation compensation factor | 0.85–1.00 | 0.91 | 0.465 | 0.483 |
P_UPDIS | Phosphorus uptake distribution | 20–40 | 31 | 0.502 | 0.542 |
N_UPDIS | Nitrogen uptake distribution | 20–40 | 24 | 0.565 | 0.591 |
Variable | RMSE | R2 | NSE | Interpretation |
---|---|---|---|---|
PRECIPmm | High: 30–50 mm | 0.6 | 0.55 | Captures seasonal trend but misses sharp peaks |
SNOWMELTmm | High: 5–10 mm | 0.45 | 0.4 | Highly spiky and model struggles with timing and magnitude of baseline events |
PETmm | Low: 10–15 mm | 0.9 | 0.85 | Strong seasonal pattern, well captured |
ETmm | Moderate: 15–20 mm | 0.85 | 0.78 | Good seasonal match, but more variance than PET |
Hydrological Response | RMSE | R2 | NSE | Interpretation |
---|---|---|---|---|
SURQmm | High—15 mm | 0.7 | 0.63 | Underestimates runoff peaks |
GWQmm | Moderate—0.3 mm | 0.45 | 0.41 | Decent capture of baseline trends |
SWmm | Moderate—25 mm | 0.7 | 0.68 | Good track of seasonal soil water |
WYLDmm | Moderate—15 mm | 0.75 | 0.7 | Good alignment of seasonal pattern |
SYLDt/ha | High—0.4 t/ha | 0.65 | 0.59 | Poorly captures spikes in sediment yields |
Codes | Performance | Model Used |
---|---|---|
1 | 86.73% | SWAT-Prophet-ML model |
2 | 85% | SWAT model |
3 | 81.25% | SWAT-Prophet model |
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Dasari, S.K.; Preetha, P.; Ghantasala, H.M. Predictive Analysis of Hydrological Variables in the Cahaba Watershed: Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy for Water Resource Management Using Time-Series and Machine Learning Models. Earth 2025, 6, 89. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030089
Dasari SK, Preetha P, Ghantasala HM. Predictive Analysis of Hydrological Variables in the Cahaba Watershed: Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy for Water Resource Management Using Time-Series and Machine Learning Models. Earth. 2025; 6(3):89. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030089
Chicago/Turabian StyleDasari, Sai Kumar, Pooja Preetha, and Hari Manikanta Ghantasala. 2025. "Predictive Analysis of Hydrological Variables in the Cahaba Watershed: Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy for Water Resource Management Using Time-Series and Machine Learning Models" Earth 6, no. 3: 89. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030089
APA StyleDasari, S. K., Preetha, P., & Ghantasala, H. M. (2025). Predictive Analysis of Hydrological Variables in the Cahaba Watershed: Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy for Water Resource Management Using Time-Series and Machine Learning Models. Earth, 6(3), 89. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030089