The Northern Tunisian Hydrogen Nerve: Unlocking 3 GW of Green Energy for Europe

This paper evaluates the potential for green hydrogen production in Tunisia using nearly 3 GW of renewable electricity distributed across four strategically selected sites: Haouaria, Zriba, Sbikha, and Feriana. These locations were chosen for their proximity to the Trans-Mediterranean (TransMed) natural gas pipeline linking Algeria to Italy, as well as their strong but underexploited solar and wind energy resources. Each site was optimized according to land availability and renewable energy potential: Haouaria is wind-dominant, Zriba employs a hybrid solar-wind configuration, Sbikha focuses on solar, and Feriana integrates both solar and wind over a large area. The analysis reveals a total green hydrogen production capacity supported by approximately 3.1 GW of installed renewable power, with a base-case LCOH ranging from $1.21 to $2.05 per kilogram. El Haouaria emerges as the most cost-effective site due to its highly favorable wind conditions, while the sensitivity analysis shows that LCOH can reach up to approximately $3.8 per kilogram under higher CAPEX assumptions. The findings underscore the viability of a multi-site development strategy and highlight northern Tunisia’s comparative advantage for low-cost green hydrogen production, thanks to its superior resource mix, existing infrastructure, and better water availability relative to Tunisia’s southern regions.