Determination of a Key Pandemic Parameter of the SIR-Epidemic Model from Past COVID-19 Mutant Waves and Its Variation for the Validity of the Gaussian Evolution
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. SIR Model
2.1. Basic Equations
2.2. Key Parameter
2.3. Limiting Case
3. Condition for the Validity of the Gaussian Evolution
- (i)
- at early times , the Gaussian ratio increases linearly starting from ratio values less than unity;
- (ii)
- at times near maximum, i.e., close to near the maximum of , the Gaussian ratio exhibits a dip, which is more pronounced for smaller values of and which is also indicated by Equation (25) as the third linear term is inversely proportional to ;
- (iii)
- at late times beyond , the Gaussian ratio resumes its linear increase with time.
4. Determination of Ratio (16) from Monitored Infection Rates of COVID-19 Waves
5. Summary and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Schlickeiser, R.; Kröger, M. Determination of a Key Pandemic Parameter of the SIR-Epidemic Model from Past COVID-19 Mutant Waves and Its Variation for the Validity of the Gaussian Evolution. Physics 2023, 5, 205-214. https://doi.org/10.3390/physics5010016
Schlickeiser R, Kröger M. Determination of a Key Pandemic Parameter of the SIR-Epidemic Model from Past COVID-19 Mutant Waves and Its Variation for the Validity of the Gaussian Evolution. Physics. 2023; 5(1):205-214. https://doi.org/10.3390/physics5010016
Chicago/Turabian StyleSchlickeiser, Reinhard, and Martin Kröger. 2023. "Determination of a Key Pandemic Parameter of the SIR-Epidemic Model from Past COVID-19 Mutant Waves and Its Variation for the Validity of the Gaussian Evolution" Physics 5, no. 1: 205-214. https://doi.org/10.3390/physics5010016