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Volume 4
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Article

Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts?

by
Warwick Smith
1,
Anca M. Hanea
2 and
Mark A. Burgman
3,*
1
School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
2
Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
3
Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 1NE, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forecasting 2022, 4(3), 699-716; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4030038
Submission received: 27 May 2022 / Revised: 22 July 2022 / Accepted: 26 July 2022 / Published: 2 August 2022
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Abstract

Economic and financial forecasts are important for business planning and government policy but are notoriously challenging. We take advantage of recent advances in individual and group judgement, and a data set of economic and financial forecasts compiled over 25 years, consisting of multiple individual and institutional estimates, to test the claim that nominal groups will make more accurate economic and financial forecast than individuals. We validate the forecasts using the subsequent published (real) outcomes, explore the performance of nominal groups against institutions, identify potential superforecasters and discuss the benefits of implementing structured judgment techniques to improve economic and financial forecasts.
Keywords: economic forecasting; expert opinion; economic survey; macroeconomics economic forecasting; expert opinion; economic survey; macroeconomics

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Smith, W.; Hanea, A.M.; Burgman, M.A. Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts? Forecasting 2022, 4, 699-716. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4030038

AMA Style

Smith W, Hanea AM, Burgman MA. Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts? Forecasting. 2022; 4(3):699-716. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4030038

Chicago/Turabian Style

Smith, Warwick, Anca M. Hanea, and Mark A. Burgman. 2022. "Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts?" Forecasting 4, no. 3: 699-716. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4030038

APA Style

Smith, W., Hanea, A. M., & Burgman, M. A. (2022). Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts? Forecasting, 4(3), 699-716. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4030038

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