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X-Model: Further Development and Possible Modifications

Environmental Economics, esp. Economics of Renewable Energy, University of Duisburg-Essen, Berliner Platz 6-8, WST-C.11.19, 45127 Essen, Germany
Forecasting 2020, 2(1), 20-35; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2010002
Received: 10 December 2019 / Revised: 25 January 2020 / Accepted: 29 January 2020 / Published: 3 February 2020
The main goal of the present paper is to improve the X-model used for day-ahead electricity price and volume forecasting. The key feature of the X-model is that it makes a day-ahead forecast for the entire wholesale supply and demand curves. The intersection of the predicted curves yields the forecast for equilibrium day-ahead prices and volumes. We take advantage of a technique for auction curves’ transformation to improve the original X-model. Instead of using actual wholesale supply and demand curves, we rely on transformed versions of these curves with perfectly inelastic demand. As a result, the computational requirements of our X-model are reduced and its forecasting power increases. Moreover, our X-model is more robust towards outliers present in the initial auction curves’ data. View Full-Text
Keywords: energy economics; energy forecasting; econometric modeling; electricity supply; electricity demand energy economics; energy forecasting; econometric modeling; electricity supply; electricity demand
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kulakov, S. X-Model: Further Development and Possible Modifications. Forecasting 2020, 2, 20-35. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2010002

AMA Style

Kulakov S. X-Model: Further Development and Possible Modifications. Forecasting. 2020; 2(1):20-35. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2010002

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kulakov, Sergei. 2020. "X-Model: Further Development and Possible Modifications" Forecasting 2, no. 1: 20-35. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2010002

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