Real-Time Efficient Approximation of Nonlinear Fractional-Order PDE Systems via Selective Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning

Rod-pumping systems represent complex nonlinear systems. Traditional soft-sensing methods used for efficiency prediction in such systems typically rely on complicated fractional-order partial differential equations, severely limiting the real-time capability of efficiency estimation. To address this limitation, we propose an approximate efficiency prediction model for nonlinear fractional-order differential systems based on selective heterogeneous ensemble learning. This method integrates electrical power time-series data with fundamental operational parameters to enhance real-time predictive capability. Initially, we extract critical parameters influencing system efficiency using statistical principles. These primary influencing factors are identified through Pearson correlation coefficients and validated using p-value significance analysis. Subsequently, we introduce three foundational approximate system efficiency models: Convolutional Neural Network-Echo State Network-Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-ESN-BiLSTM), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory-Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit-Transformer (BiLSTM-BiGRU-Transformer), and Convolutional Neural Network-Echo State Network-Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (CNN-ESN-BiGRU). Finally, to balance diversity among basic approximation models and predictive accuracy, we develop a selective heterogeneous ensemble-based approximate efficiency model for nonlinear fractional-order differential systems. Experimental validation utilizing actual oil-well parameters demonstrates that the proposed approach effectively and accurately predicts the efficiency of rod-pumping systems.