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Open AccessArticle

A Holistic Framework for Forecasting Transformative AI

Systems and Technology, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
Big Data Cogn. Comput. 2019, 3(3), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/bdcc3030035
Received: 1 June 2019 / Revised: 15 June 2019 / Accepted: 21 June 2019 / Published: 26 June 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Artificial Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy)
In this paper we describe a holistic AI forecasting framework which draws on a broad body of literature from disciplines such as forecasting, technological forecasting, futures studies and scenario planning. A review of this literature leads us to propose a new class of scenario planning techniques that we call scenario mapping techniques. These techniques include scenario network mapping, cognitive maps and fuzzy cognitive maps, as well as a new method we propose that we refer to as judgmental distillation mapping. This proposed technique is based on scenario mapping and judgmental forecasting techniques, and is intended to integrate a wide variety of forecasts into a technological map with probabilistic timelines. Judgmental distillation mapping is the centerpiece of the holistic forecasting framework in which it is used to inform a strategic planning process as well as for informing future iterations of the forecasting process. Together, the framework and new technique form a holistic rethinking of how we forecast AI. We also include a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the framework, its implications for practice and its implications on research priorities for AI forecasting researchers. View Full-Text
Keywords: AI forecasting; technology forecasting; scenario analysis; scenario mapping; transformative AI; scenario network mapping; judgmental distillation mapping; holistic forecasting framework AI forecasting; technology forecasting; scenario analysis; scenario mapping; transformative AI; scenario network mapping; judgmental distillation mapping; holistic forecasting framework
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Gruetzemacher, R. A Holistic Framework for Forecasting Transformative AI. Big Data Cogn. Comput. 2019, 3, 35.

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