Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of a Neglected Arboviruses Vector (Armigeres subalbatus) in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Species Occurrence Data
2.2. Environmental Predictor Variables
2.3. Species Distribution Modeling
2.4. Evaluation of Changes in Potential Suitable Areas
3. Results
3.1. Observed Distributions and Climate Factors Selected
3.2. Model Performance
3.3. Current Distribution of Suitable Habitat
3.4. Important Bioclimatic Variables
3.5. Potential Suitable Areas for Ar. subalbatus under Future Climate Scenarios
3.6. Centroid Shift and Potential Suitable Areas
4. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Bioclimatic Variable | Description | Included |
---|---|---|
Bio01 | Annual mean temperature | |
Bio02 | Mean diurnal temperature range | Yes |
Bio03 | Isothermality | Yes |
Bio04 | Temperature seasonality | |
Bio05 | Max temperature of the warmest month | Yes |
Bio06 | Min temperature of the coldest month | |
Bio07 | Annual temperature range | |
Bio08 | Mean temperature of the wettest quarter | |
Bio09 | Mean temperature of the driest quarter | |
Bio10 | Mean temperature of the warmest quarter | |
Bio11 | Mean temperature of the coldest quarter | |
Bio12 | Annual precipitation | Yes |
Bio13 | Precipitation of the wettest month | |
Bio14 | Precipitation of the driest month | Yes |
Bio15 | Precipitation seasonality | Yes |
Bio16 | Precipitation of the wettest quarter | |
Bio17 | Precipitation of the driest quarter | |
Bio18 | Precipitation of the warmest quarter | |
Bio19 | Precipitation of the coldest quarter |
Time Period | SSPS Scenarios | Area Change (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Range Expansion | No Change | Range Contraction | Net Change | ||
2040–2060 | SSP126 | 4.193% | 78.385% | 0.160% | 4.033% |
2040–2060 | SSP585 | 7.755% | 78.466% | 0.079% | 7.675% |
2060–2080 | SSP126 | 4.151% | 78.388% | 0.157% | 3.994% |
2060–2080 | SSP585 | 10.144% | 78.140% | 0.404% | 9.739% |
Present or Absent in Different Periods | Areas under Climate Scenarios (km2) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
CURRENT | 2045–2060 | 2060–2070 | SSP126 | SSP585 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 36,378.97 | 36,286.65 |
0 | 1 | 1 | 18,778.39 | 36,541.99 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 249.004 | 46.98122 |
0 | 0 | 1 | 17,030.69 | 15,327.62 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 2208.117 | 15,644.75 |
0 | 1 | 0 | 17,970.32 | 26,192.03 |
1 | 0 | 0 | 5496.802 | 26,192.03 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 91,431.79 | 3735.007 |
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Wang, G.; Zhang, D.; Khan, J.; Guo, J.; Feng, Q.; Sun, Y.; Li, B.; Wu, Y.; Wu, Z.; Zheng, X. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of a Neglected Arboviruses Vector (Armigeres subalbatus) in China. Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2022, 7, 431. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7120431
Wang G, Zhang D, Khan J, Guo J, Feng Q, Sun Y, Li B, Wu Y, Wu Z, Zheng X. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of a Neglected Arboviruses Vector (Armigeres subalbatus) in China. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease. 2022; 7(12):431. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7120431
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Gang, Dongjing Zhang, Jehangir Khan, Jiatian Guo, Qingdeng Feng, Yan Sun, Beiqing Li, Yu Wu, Zhongdao Wu, and Xiaoying Zheng. 2022. "Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of a Neglected Arboviruses Vector (Armigeres subalbatus) in China" Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 7, no. 12: 431. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7120431