Malaria in Senegal: Recent and Future Changes Based on Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Simulations
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Used
2.2.1. Malaria Data Surveillance
2.2.2. Climate Data and Methods
2.3. LMM Malaria Model
3. Results
3.1. CMIP6 Models’ Evaluation: Validation of the Rainfall and Temperature Inputs
3.2. Projected Changes in the Spatiotemporal Variability of the CMIP6 Data
3.2.1. Projected Changes in the Spatiotemporal Variability of the CMIP6 Rainfall
3.2.2. Projected Changes in the Spatiotemporal Variability of the CMIP6 Temperature
- between December and January, there is a period marked by a dry climate and very low temperatures linked to the polar invasions during the winter season.
- between February and May, it is very hot and dry with the first peak in temperature in May; this absolute peak in temperature precedes the start of the rainy season;
- the period from July to September (rainy season) is very rainy and wet with mild temperature due to cloud cover;
- the last period of this classification extends between October and November and is marked by high humidity and slightly high temperature. The second peak of the annual temperature cycle often occurs in October with a peak approaching 32 °C.
3.3. Simulated Malaria Incidence in Senegal
3.4. Validation of Simulated Malaria Incidence in Senegal
3.5. Projected Changes in Malaria Incidence Based on CMIP6 Data
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Model Name | Institution and Country | Resolution |
---|---|---|
BCC-CSM2-MR | Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA), China | 1.1° × 1.1° |
CanESM5 | Canadian Earth System Model, Canada | 2.81° × 2.81° |
CESM2 | National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, USA | 1.25° × 0.94° |
CMCC-CM2-SR5 | The Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Italia | 2.8° × 1.9° |
CNRM-CM6_HR | Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques-Centre Européen de Recherches et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, France | 0.5° × 0.5° |
FGOALS-g3 | Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model Grid-point version 3 | 2° × 2.3° |
GFDL-ESM4 | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA | 1.25° × 1.00° |
IITM-ESM | Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India | 1.9° × 1.9° |
INM-CM5-0 | Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow 119991, Russia | 2° × 1.5° |
IPSL-CM6A-LR | Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France | 2.5° × 1.3° |
MIROC6 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa 236–0001, Japan | 1.4° × 1.4° |
MIROC-ES2L | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa 236–0001, Japan | 2.8° × 2.8° |
MPI-ESM1-2-HR | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, High Resolution, Germany | 0.9° × 0.9° |
NESM3 | Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China | 1.9° × 1.9° |
TaiESM | Research Centre for Environmental Changes, Taiwan | 1.3° × 1° |
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Diouf, I.; Ndione, J.-A.; Gaye, A.T. Malaria in Senegal: Recent and Future Changes Based on Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Simulations. Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2022, 7, 345. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110345
Diouf I, Ndione J-A, Gaye AT. Malaria in Senegal: Recent and Future Changes Based on Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Simulations. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease. 2022; 7(11):345. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110345
Chicago/Turabian StyleDiouf, Ibrahima, Jacques-André Ndione, and Amadou Thierno Gaye. 2022. "Malaria in Senegal: Recent and Future Changes Based on Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Simulations" Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 7, no. 11: 345. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110345