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Article

TB Hackathon: Development and Comparison of Five Models to Predict Subnational Tuberculosis Prevalence in Pakistan

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KIT Royal Tropical Institute, 1092 AD Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Department of Sociology and Social Sciences, University of Milano Bicocca, 20126 Milan, Italy
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Departments of Global Health and Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DA, UK
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Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
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Epcon, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium
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Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, 56127 Pisa, Italy
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Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK
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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
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École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
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Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre 312225, Malawi
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Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool L3 5QA, UK
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Clinical Research Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
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Stop TB Partnership, 1218 Geneva, Switzerland
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Department of Biostatistics, Radboud University Medical Centre, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands
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Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, 7514 AE Enschede, The Netherlands
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Pakistan National Tuberculosis Control Programme, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Jacob Creswell, Sode Matiku, Masja Straetemans and Luan Vo
Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2022, 7(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7010013
Received: 27 September 2021 / Revised: 5 January 2022 / Accepted: 11 January 2022 / Published: 17 January 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Tools and Approaches to End TB)
Pakistan’s national tuberculosis control programme (NTP) is among the many programmes worldwide that value the importance of subnational tuberculosis (TB) burden estimates to support disease control efforts, but do not have reliable estimates. A hackathon was thus organised to solicit the development and comparison of several models for small area estimation of TB. The TB hackathon was launched in April 2019. Participating teams were requested to produce district-level estimates of bacteriologically positive TB prevalence among adults (over 15 years of age) for 2018. The NTP provided case-based data from their 2010–2011 TB prevalence survey, along with data relating to TB screening, testing and treatment for the period between 2010–2011 and 2018. Five teams submitted district-level TB prevalence estimates, methodological details and programming code. Although the geographical distribution of TB prevalence varied considerably across models, we identified several districts with consistently low notification-to-prevalence ratios. The hackathon highlighted the challenges of generating granular spatiotemporal TB prevalence forecasts based on a cross-sectional prevalence survey data and other data sources. Nevertheless, it provided a range of approaches to subnational disease modelling. The NTP’s use and plans for these outputs shows that, limitations notwithstanding, they can be valuable for programme planning. View Full-Text
Keywords: small area estimation; tuberculosis burden; predictive modelling; subnational prevalence; spatial epidemiology; forecasting small area estimation; tuberculosis burden; predictive modelling; subnational prevalence; spatial epidemiology; forecasting
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MDPI and ACS Style

Alba, S.; Rood, E.; Mecatti, F.; Ross, J.M.; Dodd, P.J.; Chang, S.; Potgieter, M.; Bertarelli, G.; Henry, N.J.; LeGrand, K.E.; Trouleau, W.; Shaweno, D.; MacPherson, P.; Qin, Z.Z.; Mergenthaler, C.; Giardina, F.; Augustijn, E.-W.; Baloch, A.Q.; Latif, A. TB Hackathon: Development and Comparison of Five Models to Predict Subnational Tuberculosis Prevalence in Pakistan. Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2022, 7, 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7010013

AMA Style

Alba S, Rood E, Mecatti F, Ross JM, Dodd PJ, Chang S, Potgieter M, Bertarelli G, Henry NJ, LeGrand KE, Trouleau W, Shaweno D, MacPherson P, Qin ZZ, Mergenthaler C, Giardina F, Augustijn E-W, Baloch AQ, Latif A. TB Hackathon: Development and Comparison of Five Models to Predict Subnational Tuberculosis Prevalence in Pakistan. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease. 2022; 7(1):13. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7010013

Chicago/Turabian Style

Alba, Sandra, Ente Rood, Fulvia Mecatti, Jennifer M. Ross, Peter J. Dodd, Stewart Chang, Matthys Potgieter, Gaia Bertarelli, Nathaniel J. Henry, Kate E. LeGrand, William Trouleau, Debebe Shaweno, Peter MacPherson, Zhi Z. Qin, Christina Mergenthaler, Federica Giardina, Ellen-Wien Augustijn, Aurangzaib Q. Baloch, and Abdullah Latif. 2022. "TB Hackathon: Development and Comparison of Five Models to Predict Subnational Tuberculosis Prevalence in Pakistan" Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 7, no. 1: 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7010013

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