A Portrait of the Urban Demographic Profile of an African City—Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Abstract

The global population is experiencing a remarkable demographic shift. The population pyramid of African countries looks very different from that of the West, with a youthful population forming the base of the African population, while the population of Western countries has a larger share of an aging population. A broader understanding of the various facets of urban growth in Africa is needed, including the demographic makeup and drivers of growth. However, inadequate attention has been paid to this aspect of urban change in research, even though this knowledge can aid development planning. Demographic concerns like the interconnections between development and population are important issues of national dialogues and debates. Research from Southern Africa has also found a prevalence of female-headed households in urban areas and predicts a rise in this trend. This study thus set out to explore the primary factor behind urban population growth and the extent of prevalence of female-headed households in African cities using Port Harcourt, Nigeria, as a case study. Quantitative research was conducted. The findings revealed that natural increase was largely responsible for urban growth, given the proportion of participants in the age group 18–40 born in the city. This group currently forms the large base of the African urban population. Results also showed that male-headed households were still dominant in Port Harcourt city. This study highlights the need for expansion of similar research in other cities to enable a more holistic understanding of the wider African urban population demographics and dynamics.

1. Introduction

The global demographic composition is undergoing a conspicuous shift across continents. A huge contrast exists between African cities and their Western counterparts, whereby African cities continue to grow while Western cities appear to have reached a state of equilibrium and even regression [1]. Certainly, the population pyramid of Africa looks different from that of Western countries [2]. Population growth correlates with fertility rates, and except for some sub-Saharan African nations, there is fertility decline in almost every other region of the globe [3].

The global urban population is projected to grow to a proportion of approximately 70% by 2050 [4]. Most of this urban growth will take place in sub-Saharan Africa, which is projected to experience a 12-fold increase in urban land cover area between 2000 and 2050 [5]. Africa’s population is expected to double over the next three decades [6], with the urban centers absorbing most of this growth [7]. This would drive high urban expansion rates and sprawl that would have important environmental, socioeconomic and health impacts, making it imperative to better understand and prepare for these urban growth changes [8,9]. Also, this rapid urbanization of African cities is not being supported by adequate formal enterprise growth and urban investment [10,11].

Despite the projected challenges of fast urbanization in African cities, urban centers in Africa continue to expand, which requires a better understanding of the dynamics [12]. This is also crucial given the shifting and sometimes contradictory views on African urban dynamics. For example, the position of the World Bank at the turn of the millennium was that African cities are failing in terms of structural transformation and as engines of growth. They were thus to blame for the social and economic crisis that plagues the continent [11]. Years later, the World Bank shifted its position, and rapid urban growth in Africa began to be deemed a positive occurrence due to the economic gains that could emanate from urbanization, such as innovation and agglomeration [11]. Potts (2011) argued that these positions are not totally exclusive, given that there are notable overlaps in detailed debates as they relate to issues facing urban planners and people living in African cities. This subject also necessitates more research data and the disaggregation of this data to better examine exactly what is happening and where. However, inadequate attention has been paid to urban changes despite the overall significant impacts this has on the nature of urban growth [11].

This research, therefore, seeks to contribute to filling this crucial gap in knowledge in the dynamics of urban growth in Africa by focusing on a Nigerian city, Port Harcourt. The objective is to explore the primary factor behind urban growth in the city and the extent of prevalence of female-headed households in the city of Port Harcourt. This paper first provides a brief literature review of African urbanization and urban demographics and narrows this discussion down to Nigeria. The research questions are identified. A discussion of the research context and method follows next. The findings of this research are then presented and discussed. The conclusion section wraps up this paper and summarizes the most salient points.

2. African Urbanization and Urban Demographics: A Review of the Literature, Research Gap and Questions

The urban realm is inherently complex [13]. Research on urban development characteristics highlights their dynamic nature and provides crucial insight into how cities grow, evolve, and change over time. Rising urban population growth is considered the most urgent demographic issue of the 21st century [14]. Urbanization is a multifaceted, complex and dynamic process [1] that necessitates a good understanding of the trends in order to harness the positive benefits that can result from urban agglomeration. Such an understanding can also mitigate overflow from congestion diseconomies that characterize rapidly growing cities in developing countries [15,16], which leads to a decline in the provision of social services and urban infrastructure.

A robust debate over how to understand cities of the Global South has emerged in recent years. Instead of muting differences, theories that seek generalisation across space and time contribute to the appreciation and identification of important differences in urbanisation processes [17]. Analyzing how the key dynamics of urbanisation merge and interact with one another in varying contexts offers insight into policy issues that cut across cities globally, as well as context-specific policy issues that arise from the interaction of global urbanisation forces and local peculiarities [17].

Africa is experiencing the fastest urbanization rate globally, given the later start of its urbanization [18]. This urbanization is being accompanied by mounting challenges such as a decline in agricultural productivity and consequently food insecurity [19], poor housing conditions and slums, infrastructure deterioration, and urban poverty [20,21].

Urban population growth in Africa is fraught with many challenges, including poor governance [22]. Despite Africa’s rapid urbanization trends, only a few studies have systematically or empirically studied the growth dynamics across its cities [23]. A large number of people in Africa are migrating, and will continue to migrate to cities [23]. After independence in many African countries, there was a huge migration from rural to urban areas. Previously, some of these urban centers were colonial enclaves with only authorized persons allowed to live in towns. Post-independence, many people became attracted to the city by its lure and prospects, leading to a significant surge in urban population numbers. Quantitative and qualitative studies carried out in the 1960s and 1970s provided evidence of many non-economic reasons for urban migration. For women specifically, their desire to escape gender discrimination, which is more widespread in the rural areas, to reunite with spouses, or seek the same in urban areas, were factors that attracted them to the city [24]. The youth, on their part, sought to emancipate from the control of older folks in the rural areas, coupled with the prestige and allure of urban life [24]. Today, there is growing evidence that urban population growth is no longer so much a result of rural–urban migrations but a natural increase [25].

Colonial legacy made a critical imprint on the nature of African urban development. It largely set the urban transition in motion, but left in its wake a legacy of underinvestment and extemporaneous urban governance structures [26]. This led to African cities being ill-prepared to absorb increased urban population growth in the early post-independence period, and the proliferation of unplanned informal settlements [26]. Urban growth is also being accompanied by an increase in informal settlements or slums, believed to house about 60% of the urban population in sub-Saharan Africa [26]. For Nigeria specifically, since the early days of independence, the informal sector has been the principal provider of urban land and housing, with only about 20–40% of urban physical development carried out with formal government approval [27]. They are deemed illegal, but despite their illegal status, including them in urban research is important, given the proportion of urban residents who inhabit these marginal locations. As such, both the formal and informal settlements of the study city, Port Harcourt, formed part of this study.

In urban space and urban policy, attention to gender dynamics is also crucial as women are very present, and even increasingly outnumbering men in many African cities [28]. Indeed, due to the rapidly changing global demographics, urban areas are becoming more feminized [29]. Socially constructed relations differently impact women’s and men’s access to and participation in urban life [30]. Women currently make up a significant proportion of urban inhabitants, and current trajectories suggest female-headed households will make up even greater proportions of urban dwellers in developing countries [29,31]. In addition, female-headed households in these urban areas have been found to be less well-off in comparison to male-headed households [32]. The prevalence of poorer female households has led to increased focus on what is now known as the feminization of poverty [33]. This feminization of poverty is more pronounced in developing countries where a higher number of the poor who lack access to resources and decision-making in different facets of life are women [34,35,36]. They are also mostly resident in informal settlements, making them more exposed to associated risks with lesser adaptive capacities [37]. In many of the poorer settlements in urban South Africa, this trend has already been observed as female-headed households are overrepresented [38]. The emerging norm of women-headed households, particularly in the poorer neighborhoods of urban society [38], necessitates more involvement and inclusion of women in urban research. One attraction that urban areas hold for females, which may account for their increasing presence in these spaces, is that urban areas are more supportive of gender equality and offer more opportunities to women compared to rural areas [39,40].

In Nigeria specifically, many customary laws do not accord women the right to own, inherit, control, or transfer land and landed property [41]. In the urban areas, however, women are able to break this barrier, as they are not restricted or discriminated against in land and property ownership. The cultural diversity of urban areas and better educational opportunities for urban residents could be factors that enable women to break the prevalent gendered barriers in rural areas. This makes urban life more attractive to them due to better opportunities with the potential of reducing gendered disadvantages [28,37]. Many demographic questions constitute critical issues of national dialogues and debates, including the interconnections between development and population, censuses, and the implications of the population momentum being experienced, as well as what is projected [42]. Censuses in Nigeria have historically been marred by controversies and manipulations [43], hence independent studies of this nature serve to provide non-political and important demographic information that can inform development decisions and policy making.

Nigeria is approximately 52% urbanized [25]. By 2050, it is projected that more than 60% of Nigerians will be residents in urban areas [44]. Nigerian cities have witnessed significant population growth over recent years [25,45]. This study seeks to contribute to knowledge on African urban demographics using Port Harcourt as a case study, and poses these key questions:

(i)

To what extent could urban population growth in Port Harcourt be attributed to natural increase or rural–urban migration?

(ii)

What is the prevalence of female-headed households in Port Harcourt?

Given the erstwhile dominant thesis of rural–urban migration and growing evidence of natural increase and the emerging evidence indicating otherwise, it is important to understand current trends. A good understanding of the features of urban growth in African cities can inform sustainable urban development and also contribute to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by helping to map a collective global development trajectory [23]. Such an understanding will provide crucial information to policymakers as they design the required strategies and tools to respond to contemporary urban challenges, foster inclusive urban growth, and environmental protection, which are all key components of sustainable development. Furthermore, this study is also relevant in the global quest to mitigate climate change, where the land transformation that occurs during the urbanization process contributes to climate change, whereas sustainable urbanization and urban density can be attenuating factors in the climate change discourse [8]. This study’s contribution toward these goals makes it crucial and worthwhile.

3. Research Location

This work takes place in Port Harcourt, Nigeria (see Figure 1). By 2050, Nigeria is projected to become the third most populous country in the world [46]. Yet, there is a paucity of research on its demography [47]. This work thus focuses on a Nigerian city, Port Harcourt, which holds key economic importance in the Nigerian polity. This is due to the crude oil-based economic activities that take place in the city, whereby oil remains the mainstay of Nigeria’s economy.

Port Harcourt is also one of the Nigerian cities that have witnessed over 1000% growth in five decades [48]. The city is home to more than 2 million people. The rapid population growth the city has experienced over the years, alongside the significant physical expansion, as well as other urban challenges characteristic of cities of developing countries, has led to a decline in the provision of social services and urban infrastructure [49].

There is also the presence of numerous informal settlements in the city, home to a large number of the population. The projected urban growth and transformation that has occurred and will continue to occur in the city make it a perfect case study for studying demographic dynamics.

Youth under 30 form the base of Nigeria’s population at 70% [50]. The overall male–female composition in Nigeria is believed to be evenly split. There is currently no reliable and up-to-date census data in Nigeria that can provide information on the current demographic profile. Censuses in Nigeria have been historically marred by controversies and deemed grossly inadequate, including the last 2006 census exercise [51]. The use of census and population data, among other criteria in revenue allocation, has led to inflation of census figures to better position certain states to receive accruable benefits from higher population figures, especially those states that do not boast much natural resources [52]. This research thus presents a crucial insight into the composition of a key urban settlement amid the sparse national urban demographic data. A census exercise planned for 2023 was postponed [53]. However, even when this census exercise takes place and the data becomes available, this work will contribute to the body of non-government-backed data while also providing demographic information and helping inform decision-making.

4. Research Method

Quantitative research was found to be most adequate in understanding the demographic makeup of the study city, Port Harcourt. Questionnaire surveys were used to collect the data. Given the significant proportion of urban residents who live in informal settlements or ‘slums’, a conscious decision was made to include them in this work. Therefore, both formal and informal settlements were surveyed. The surveys were administered over a period of three months between the first and second quarters of 2022. The questionnaires collected data on the demographic composition of respondents and their socioeconomic characteristics. Four locations (Eneka, Nkpolu, Peter Odili Road, and Prime Rose Estate) in the formal settlements of the city were selected via purposive sampling. Every adult over 18 years old within the study locations was eligible to participate. The selected locations spanned the two main local government areas that make up the city (Port Harcourt and Obio Akpor Local Government Areas). The informal settlements known as Waterside settlements are all located in the Port Harcourt City Local Government Area. Seven of these Waterside settlements (Bundu, Derrick Polo, Aggrey, Marine Base, Ngofaka, Sandfill, and Wilson) were selected. Their location along the same stretch of coastline made it easier for seven of these settlements to be surveyed in comparison to four locations in the formal settlements that required more deplacements. Random probability sampling was carried out, where every fifth house in the selected areas was surveyed. The survey collected information on the participants’ age group, gender, and place of birth.

By asking the respondents where they were born (Port Harcourt city or in their villages), it was easy to ascertain if they migrated to the city or were born in the city. This approach enabled the first research question to be answered, as anyone who was not born in the city migrated to the city at some point after they were born. The data collected relating to their age group made it possible to disaggregate the data according to age and thus draw much more concise conclusions and distinctions on urban growth drivers. This also allowed for an insight into migration trends in the city dating back about five decades. To answer the second research question, the respondents were asked if their household was headed by a male or female.

Data were also collected on the level of education, type of employment, household size, number of income earners in the household, and household head. The questionnaires were administered face to face by a team of four research assistants and a local guide living in each of the surveyed neighbourhoods. The choice of a local guide was to foster trust-building and encourage respondents to participate in the research. At the end of the survey administration, a wholly completed and valid response of 401 responses was obtained. To ensure representativeness of a survey sample in unknown populations, a minimum of 385 responses [54] is needed for a 95% degree of confidence. The obtained sample size of 401 was thus enough to make generalizable conclusions for this case study. The survey was hosted on Qualtrics, a research management software. The data from the survey were subsequently analyzed using SPSS version 21 and Microsoft Excel version 17.0. The next section presents and discusses the findings from this research.

5. Research Findings and Discussion

The high level of African urbanization necessitates a better understanding of the demographic trends and dynamics. This is because such data provide a needed basis for tracking growth patterns and discerning past, current and future trends. This helps reveal development needs or strengths and guides policy and decision-making. Questioning the taken-for-granted and demonstrating the contingent character of social phenomena that are deemed common or inevitable are inherent in the work of geographers [55]. This work relates to assumptions regarding the composition of African cities, which are brought to the test in the case of Port Harcourt.

For Nigeria specifically, such knowledge is even more crucial given the projected population growth, where it is set to become the third most populous country by 2050. Its big cities are expected to absorb and account for most of this growth. This research sought to contribute to filling this crucial gap in the literature by focusing on the fast-growing Nigerian city of Port Harcourt. While the results here only present a synopsis of the population dynamics of one city, having similar case studies from other locations can help present a more in-depth view of the various cities in Africa, which can inform planning.

Cities hold a vast diversity of empirical phenomena, undermining any attempt to build a common concept of the city [56]. This leaves urban theory with the onerous task of understanding the complex array of similarities and differences. Scott and Storper (2015) go on to query if cities can be grouped together as a common class of phenomena or if they must be divided into several incommensurate and different classes, or in the extreme case, into as many classes as there are individual cities [56]. The author is of the opinion that while cities are different, there are also similarities that can be best understood by studying different cities in their own right as a unit, as was done in this research with Port Harcourt city.

Of the sampled population in this research, 21% were between the ages of 18 and 30 years, 41% were aged 31–40, 32% of respondents were between the ages of 41 and 50, and 5.2% were aged between 51 and 60. Even though this research was designed not to exclude any adult who meets the criteria, older people who participated were very few. Thus, a very small percentage of 0.5% fell in the 61 and above bracket. While people aged 65 and above are believed to make up about 3.1% of Nigeria’s population [57], the small percentage of respondents aged 61 and above may not be unrelated to the fact that when many people retire or get older, they relocate to their ancestral villages in their various states of origin. Indeed, old age/retirement is a factor that drives reverse urban–rural migration in Nigeria [58,59]. For Port Harcourt specifically, there are no available data within the last decade on the age distribution of residents to cross-reference the findings of this research. Notwithstanding, the age distribution of participants in this research did not greatly deviate from the results of the 2006 census exercise, where young people aged 20–24 constituted the peak of residents, followed by people aged 25–29 years [60]. Persons under 45 years of age made up 87% of Port Harcourt residents during the 2006 enumeration exercise, while the remaining 13% comprised residents aged older than 45 [60].

The gender of respondents was evenly split at 50% for both male and female respondents. These numbers are also consistent with the overall gender mix of Nigeria’s population [61]. Women are believed to currently make up a significant proportion of urban inhabitants, and current trajectories suggest female-headed households will make up even greater proportions of urban dwellers in developing countries [29,31]. In this work, however, there was an even composition of men and women. Women have been found to be mostly resident in informal settlements, making them more exposed to the risks that characterize these settlements [37,62]. In this work, 54% of the respondents living in informal settlements were women, while 46% were men. The proportion of male participants in the formal settlements was higher at 55%, with women at 45%. These data highlight a slightly higher proportion of women in high-risk informal settlements, while, in reverse, more men lived in the formal settlements. This supports previous research findings of more women than men being occupants of informal settlements [37].

Table 1. Demographic profile of Port Harcourt residents.

Parameters	Informal Settlements	Formal Settlements	Overall
Age
18–30	48 (22.5%)	37 (19.7%)	85 (21.2%)
31–40	83 (39.0%)	81 (43.1%)	164 (40.9%)
41–50	64 (30.0%)	64 (34.0%)	128 (31.9%)
51–60	16 (7.5%)	5 (2.7%)	21 (5.2%)
>61	2 (0.9%)	0 (0%)	2 (0.5%)
Missing		1 (0.5%)	1 (0.2%)
Gender
Male	98 (46)	103 (54.8)	201 (50.1)
Female	115 (54)	85 (45.2)	200 (49.9)
Place of Birth
City	92 (43.2)	81 (43.1)	173 (43.1)
Village	121 (56.8)	105 (55.9)	226 (56.4)
Missing		2 (1.1)	2 (0.5)
Total Responses	213	188	n = 401

shows the demographic profile and composition of the respondents in the different settlements where the questionnaires were administered, as well as the overall response data from all areas sampled.

The overall population of respondents born in the village but who later migrated to the city was higher than that of those born in the city, at 56% and 43%, respectively. At first glance, this would suggest rural–urban migration was driving urban population growth. Indeed, rural–urban migration was believed in the 1970s to be a factor driving urbanization [63], but more recent statistics show that population growth in the city is due to natural increase [25]. However, a closer look (see Figure 2) achieved by disaggregating the data according to age provided interesting insights.

A look at the above chart reveals that the participants aged 51–60 and 41–50 were mostly born in the village but migrated to the city later. After Nigeria’s independence in 1960, there was a wave of migration to the city from the rural areas [ 27], a fact supported by the data emanating from this work. Port Harcourt witnessed a population surge in the 1970s, which also led to the proliferation of the informal Waterside settlements [64]. Many other African cities also experienced a rise in rural-to-urban migration in the early post-colonization era. This was as a result of the removal of residence prohibitions on Africans in urban areas and a sharp rise in urban employment opportunities due to the expansion and Africanization of the civil service workforce [24]. Consequently, urban population growth and urbanization rates attained exceptionally high increments between 1960 and 1975 [24]. The findings of this study thus support the literature on an increase in post-independence migration from rural to urban areas. We also see from results here that the rate of rural–urban migration began to trail off for the 31–40 age range, where there was only a slight difference in the number of those born in the city versus the village. For the 18–31 age group, however, we see a sharp contrast in the number of respondents born in the city versus the village, implying that natural increase is mostly responsible for the population of this age group in urban areas. The results here support assertions that natural population growth is a more important factor than migration in the discourse surrounding population growth with regards to Africa’s potential and future [65]. This is also supported by the fact that young people under 30 make up the bulk of the African urban population. In Nigeria specifically, young people under 30 make up 70% of the population [50].

An advantage of the questionnaire survey used for primary data collection in this work is that it allowed for the collection of information not directly related to the research questions, but which further enriched the study and contributed to knowledge on the socioeconomic profile of the urban residents in this research. The questionnaires also collected data on the level of education, employment type, and number of income earners in the household (see

Table 2. Education, employment, and number of income earners in surveyed households.

Parameters	Informal Settlements	Formal Settlements	Overall
Education
Primary	11 (5.2%)	1 (0.6%)	12 (3.0%)
Jnr. Sec	44 (20.7%)	14 (7.4%)	57 (14.5%)
Snr. Sec	116 (54.5%)	88 (46.8%)	204 (50.9%)
Post Sec.	42 (19.7%)	76 (40.4%)	118 (29.4%)
Graduate		9 (4.8%)	9 (2.2%)
Employment
Gov’t	20 (9.4%)	20 (10.6%)	40 (10.0%)
Trade	168 (78.9%)	116 (61.7%)	284 (70.8%)
Private Inc.	10 (4.7%)	47 (25.0%)	57 (14.2%)
Private Informal	13 (6.1%)	4 (2.1%)	17 (4.2%)
Missing	2 (0.9%)	1 (0.5%)	3 (0.7%)
Income Earners per Household
1 person	119 (55.9%)	78 (41.5%)	197 (49.1%)
1 to 2	85 (39.9%)	106 (56.4%)	191 (47.6%)
>3	4 (1.9%)	4 (2.1%)	8 (2.0%)
Missing	5 (2.3%)		5 (1.2%)
Total Responses	213	188	401

). A total of 3% of the participants completed only primary education. The number of respondents with only primary education was much higher among the residents of informal settlements at 5.2%, while just one respondent (0.6%) in the formal settlements completed only primary education. 15% of the respondents completed only junior secondary. This also varied markedly between the two settlements, as 21% of the informal settlement respondents completed junior secondary, while 7% of respondents living in formal settlements completed junior secondary. For senior secondary/high school education, 51% of the respondents completed this level of schooling. 29% of the respondents completed a post-secondary education. This also differed among the settlements, with 40% of the residents of formal settlements completing post-secondary education in comparison to 20% in the informal settlements. About 5% of residents of formal settlements completed post-graduate education, while no respondents from the informal settlements completed this level of education. This offers a snapshot into the educational background of the respondents. This information collected here helped to provide a more complete profile of the urban residents, which is relevant information in development studies and policy-making.

Education is a factor that determines earning capacity and can also be an indicator of social class and potential for upward mobility. Lower education levels have been found to coincide with unemployment, poverty, overcrowding, income disparities, and marginalization [66]. In this study, residents of the formal settlements generally had a higher level of education. Regarding employment, 10% of the respondents were employed by the government. This did not vary greatly between the settlements studied. A total of 71% of the respondents were involved in trading/business. In the informal settlements, this was the case for 79% of the respondents, while in the formal settlements, this was the case for 62% of the respondents. While the survey did not capture data on the type of trading engaged in by the respondents, petty trading is common with many residents of informal settlements engaged in such trade and other jobs within the informal economy [67]. This type of trade does not require a large amount of capital, and the returns may not even be enough for basic subsistence. This supports evidence of informal settlement dwellers being the more vulnerable members of the society—they resort to occupying high-risk and marginal areas because they largely cannot afford to live elsewhere. A total of 14.2% of the respondents worked with private firms that are incorporated, while 4.2% worked with private firms that are not formally incorporated. There were missing data for 0.7% of the respondents. A total of 49% of the respondent households had single incomes, while 48% had two income earners. A total of 2% of the respondents had three or more income earners in their household, and there were 1.2% missing data.

The second research question was aimed at ascertaining the trend of female-headed households in Port Harcourt in order to ascertain the claim that female-headed households are prevalent in African cities. The findings (

Table 3. Household Size and Household Head Composition of Respondents.

Parameters	Informal Settlements	Formal Settlements	Overall
Household Size
1 to 2	87 (40.8%)	66 (35.1%)	153 (38.2%)
3 to 4	89 (41.8%)	100 (53.2%)	189 (47.1%)
5 to 6	29 (13.6%)	20 (10.6%)	49 (12.2%)
>7	8 (3.8%)	2 (1.1%)	10 (2.5%)
Household Head
Male	163 (76.5%)	154 (81.9%)	317 (79.1%)
Female	48 (22.5%)	32 (17.0%)	80 (20.0%)
Missing	2 (0.9%)	2 (1.1%)	4 (1.0%)
Total Responses	213	188	401

) revealed that in Port Harcourt city, there was still a dominance of male-headed households, which does not support evidence from the literature review, which was mainly based on studies from Southern Africa. 79% of the respondents lived in male-headed households, while 20% lived in female-headed households. This is similar to the findings of [68] on vulnerability of urban households in the Niger Delta to flooding where male heads of household made up 75.9% of the respondents surveyed and female household heads were 24.1%.

The trend is similar when analyzed at the settlement unit, with the majority of households being male-headed in both the formal and informal settlements. Overall, the results on the head of household composition do not support previous research that found a prevalence of female-headed households in African cities. This is also true for research conducted by [69] on household resilience in informal settlements in Ghana, where 67% of household heads were male, which the authors posit reflects the prevalent male dominance as household heads in the wider Ghanaian society.

The findings of this research suggest more research on the household composition of African Urban areas across cities as well as countries. This is necessary given the different findings emanating from research in South Africa and West Africa, based on the findings of this research, which is supported by one study [68] conducted in Nigeria and another [69] conducted in Ghana. Other research [70] conducted in a number of West African countries also shows far fewer female-headed households in comparison to male-headed households, which supports the need for more research in this regard.

6. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

This study set out to investigate the dynamics of contemporary urban population growth in an African city with a focus on Port Harcourt, Nigeria. Supporting and carrying out research on demographic trends and processes would generate credible evidence and data that would guide development programs and policy interventions. This work has provided a better understanding of some key facets of urban growth, including demographic composition and drivers of growth. The findings presented here showcase and reinforce the need to examine the cause of population growth, the spread/distribution and nature of this growth, and the importance of disaggregating data via an empirical methodological lens. The knowledge garnered from this study has provided insights into some of the basic demographic features of Port Harcourt. We now know that natural increase is chiefly responsible for contemporary urban population growth among the youth who form the base of Africa’s population. We also have a better understanding of some social features, such as household size, and have answers to the question of the composition of household heads in a specific African city.

In this study, the evidence showed there was still a prevalence of male-headed households in the study city, which does not support the narrative of more female-headed households, as observed in southern African countries. It is important to state that this finding does not contest these research works that came to this conclusion, but rather reinforces the need for a better understanding of demography across Africa from the south, east, west, and to the north. Also, given the demographic insights obtained from this work as it pertains to only one city, Port Harcourt, it is important to expand this work to other Nigerian cities and also conduct further research with a nationally representative sample to obtain more complete data on demographic composition and how they compare with other African cities and countries. The findings of this work also provide a basis for expanding data collection on the focus areas of this research (the cause of urban population increase and the gender composition of household heads) during national enumeration exercises like censuses, including any future planned census exercise.

The nature and design of this study also made it practical and convenient to collect information on socioeconomic characteristics of the urban residents, which were not directly related to the research questions but which further enriched knowledge. This work has made critical contributions to knowledge and yielded important demographic information that could support other sources, such as census and government administration data, where these are available. Given that Nigeria is experiencing a demographic transition and increasing urbanization, the results of this study present an important snapshot of what this looks like in real terms, which can have crucial policy implications and guide sustainable urban planning and development. Understanding the demographic makeup of cities is critical as it provides insights into the features of a population, their needs, and trends. Such data can guide planning policy by identifying age groups, socioeconomic status, etc and allocation of resources to meet diverse social and economic needs of the different population segments. It also helps in infrastructure planning and decision-making on transport, healthcare, and education facilities to meet the changing needs of the population. In the case of the study city of Port Harcourt, findings underscore the need for the government to allocate requisite resources to ensure economic sufficiency of the young population through jobs and skills development of this predominantly young population. It is also critical to invest in healthcare, given the sizeable proportion of residents (36%) who are forty and over and who may begin to experience age-related health needs.

While a census is being planned in the near future in Nigeria, independent research of this nature is very important to provide non-state-backed evidence, given the controversies and political wranglings that characterize censuses in the country. Finally, evidence from this research supports the position that natural population increase in urban areas is a more important factor in the unfolding human settlement system in Africa and deserves more attention in global environmental change studies.