# Trend Analysis of Temperature Data for the Narayani River Basin, Nepal

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## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

## 2. Study Area

## 3. Methods

#### 3.1. Data

#### 3.2. Basic Statistics

#### 3.3. Quality Control and Data Fill

#### 3.4. Trend Break Detection Methods

#### 3.5. Seasonal and Annual Trend Analysis

#### 3.6. Comparison of Station Data with Freely Available Global Climate Dataset

## 4. Results and Discussion

#### 4.1. Trend Break Observation

#### 4.2. Historical Observed Trend

#### 4.3. Seasonal Trends

#### 4.4. Temperature Gradients

#### 4.5. Comparison of Station Data with Freely Available Global Climate Dataset

## 5. Conclusions

- The mean annual temperature trend shows a trend break in the 1970s for most of the stations. After the 1970s, the mean temperature increased at a statistically significant rate in the majority of stations.
- The rate of increase in mean annual temperature ranges from 0.028 to 0.035 ${}^{\xb0}$C year${}^{-1}$ with a mean warming trend of 0.03 ${}^{\xb0}$C year${}^{-1}$.
- The highest increase in annual mean temperature is recorded in the monsoon season, followed by the winter season, postmonsoon season and premonsoon season, respectively.
- The temperature lapse rate with altitude is 0.006 ${}^{\xb0}$C m${}^{-1}$ in the Narayani River basin with the steepest value in the premonsoon season.
- The lapse rates calculated here are useful for temperature prediction in the higher Himalayan region where observations are scarce.

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 1.**The Narayani River basin with the location of the meteorological stations used in the study. The background of the basin shows different elevation zones, based on the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model.

**Figure 2.**Data coverage for the studied stations. Gaps in the lines indicate no available data for the period.

**Figure 4.**Scatter plot of temperature observations with the prediction from the model for the different stations.

**Figure 6.**EMD decomposition of the annual mean temperature (1960–2015) in Pokhara station, with IMFs components (IMF1–IMF6) and the final residue or preliminarily identified trend.

**Figure 7.**Historical mean annual temperature trend in the Narayani River basin for six stations. The trend line for the earlier period for each station is denoted by black lines and the later period is denoted by blue lines, while the overall trend is denoted by red lines.

**Figure 11.**Seasonal mean temperatures at six stations plotted against elevation for the study period (1960–2015).

**Figure 12.**Comparison of mean monthly temperature from WorldClim 2.0, CHELSA Version 1.2, station data (1970–2000), station data (1979–2013), station data (2001–2010) and GLDAS 2.0 dataset. The numbers 1–12 on X-axis represent months in a year, where 1 means January and 12 means December. Values on Y-axis represent temperature in degrees Celsius.

**Figure 13.**Comparison of MAAT from WorldClim 2.0, CHELSA Version 1.2, station data (1970–2000), station data (1979–2013), station data (2001–2010) and GLDAS 2.0 dataset. The numbers 1–12 on X-axis represent months in a year, where 1 means January and 12 means December. Values on Y-axis represent temperature in degrees Celsius.

**Figure 14.**Comparison of LST (daytime), LST (night-time), LST (average), station data (2014) and GLDAS 2.0 data (2014) for all six stations. The numbers 1–12 on X-axis represent months in a year, where 1 means January and 12 means December. Values on Y-axis represent temperature in degrees Celsius.

**Figure 15.**Comparison of LST (daytime), LST (night-time), LST (average), station data (2015) and GLDAS 2.0 data (2015) for all six stations. The numbers 1–12 on X-axis represent months in a year, where 1 means January and 12 means December. Values on Y-axis represent temperature in degrees Celsius.

**Figure 16.**Scatterplots between WorldClim 2.0 and station dataset (1970–2000) for all six stations with fitted linear trend lines. Values on X-axis and Y-axis represent temperature in degrees Celsius. The equation of linear regression and R-squared values for all six stations are shown in the figure.

**Figure 17.**Scatterplot between CHELSA 1.2 and station data set (1979–2013) for all six stations with fitted linear trend lines. Values on X-axis and Y-axis represent temperature in degrees Celsius. The equation of linear regression and R-squared values for all six stations are shown in the figure.

**Figure 18.**Scatterplot between GLDAS 2.0 and station data set (2001–2010) for all six stations with fitted linear trend lines. Values on X-axis and Y-axis represent temperature in degrees Celsius. The equation of linear regression and R-squared values for all six stations are shown in the figure.

**Figure 19.**Scatterplots between MOD11A2 LST (average) and station data set (2015) for all six stations with fitted linear trend lines. Values on X-axis and Y-axis represent temperature in degrees Celsius. The equation of linear regression and R-squared values for all six stations are shown in the figure.

Station ID | Station Name | Lat. | Lon. | Altitude (m) |
---|---|---|---|---|

810 | Chapkot | 27.883 | 83.817 | 460 |

804 | Pokhara Airport | 28.217 | 84.000 | 827 |

1004 | Nuwakot | 27.917 | 85.017 | 1003 |

1038 | Dhunibesi | 27.171 | 85.183 | 1085 |

601 | Jomsom | 27.783 | 83.717 | 2744 |

1000 | Langtang | 28.200 | 85.533 | 3800 |

Station ID | 95th Percentile | 99th Percentile | CV | Mean | Median | Skew | Mean after Interpolation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

810 | 28.85 | 31.68 | 26.36 | 23.27 | 24.77 | −0.59 | 23.20 |

804 | 26.38 | 26.85 | 21.66 | 20.96 | 22.38 | −0.46 | 21.06 |

1004 | 26.51 | 27.88 | 20.69 | 21.53 | 22.86 | −0.59 | 21.45 |

1038 | 26.73 | 27.70 | 23.71 | 21.20 | 22.59 | −0.50 | 21.19 |

601 | 18.85 | 20.77 | 29.53 | 11.77 | 11.68 | −0.08 | 11.44 |

1000 | 8.20 | 9.13 | 11.29 | 3.19 | 3.36 | −0.20 | 3.16 |

**Table 3.**Mean annual temperature trend (${}^{\xb0}$C year${}^{-1}$) in the Narayani River basin at six different stations. “*” represents statistically significant at 95% significance level.

SN | Station Name | First Period | Second Period | Entire Period | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Date | Temp. Trend | Date | Temp. Trend | Date | Temp. Trend | ||

1 | Chapkot | 1960–1972 | −0.2207 * | 1973–2015 | 0.0168 | 1960–2015 | 0.0009 |

2 | Pokhara Airport | 1960–1970 | −0.2110 * | 1971–2015 | 0.0354 * | 1960–2015 | 0.0102 * |

3 | Nuwakot | 1960–1972 | −0.2145 | 1973–2015 | 0.0280 * | 1960–2015 | 0.0152 * |

4 | Dhunibesi | 1960–1972 | −0.2145 * | 1973–2015 | 0.0280 * | 1960–2015 | 0.0080 * |

5 | Jomsom | 1960–1970 | −0.0790 | 1971–2015 | 0.0294 * | 1960–2015 | 0.0016 |

6 | Langtang | 1960–1992 | −0.0550 * | 1993–2015 | 0.0410 | 1960–2015 | 0.0107 |

**Table 4.**Mean seasonal temperature trend (${}^{\xb0}$C year${}^{-1}$) in the Narayani River basin at six different stations from 1970–2015. “*” represents statistically significant at 95% significance level.

Station ID | Station Name | Date | Monsoon | Winter | Premonsoon | Postmonsoon |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

1 | Chapkot | 1970–2015 | 0.021 | 0.019 | 0.027 | 0.021 * |

2 | Pokhara Airport | 1970–2015 | 0.037 * | 0.038 * | 0.034 * | 0.036 * |

3 | Nuwakot | 1970–2015 | 0.03 * | 0.021 * | 0.03 * | 0.036 * |

4 | Dhunibesi | 1970–2015 | 0.038 * | 0.024 * | 0.037 * | 0.039 * |

5 | Jomsom | 1970–2015 | 0.051 * | 0.057 * | −0.0080 | 0.014 |

6 | Langtang | 1970–2015 | 0.042 * | 0.038 * | 0.015 | 0.027 * |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Chand, M.B.; Bhattarai, B.C.; Pradhananga, N.S.; Baral, P. Trend Analysis of Temperature Data for the Narayani River Basin, Nepal. *Sci* **2021**, *3*, 1.
https://doi.org/10.3390/sci3010001

**AMA Style**

Chand MB, Bhattarai BC, Pradhananga NS, Baral P. Trend Analysis of Temperature Data for the Narayani River Basin, Nepal. *Sci*. 2021; 3(1):1.
https://doi.org/10.3390/sci3010001

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Chand, Mohan Bahadur, Bikas Chandra Bhattarai, Niraj Shankar Pradhananga, and Prashant Baral. 2021. "Trend Analysis of Temperature Data for the Narayani River Basin, Nepal" *Sci* 3, no. 1: 1.
https://doi.org/10.3390/sci3010001