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Analyzing the Driving Factors Causing Urban Expansion in the Peri-Urban Areas Using Logistic Regression: A Case Study of the Greater Cairo Region

1
Graduate School of Human-Environment Studies, Kyushu University, Fukuoka City 819-0395, Japan
2
Faculty of Urban and Regional Planning, Cairo University, Giza City 12613, Egypt
3
Faculty of Human-Environment Studies, Kyushu University, Fukuoka City 819-0395, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Infrastructures 2019, 4(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures4010004
Received: 27 November 2018 / Revised: 27 December 2018 / Accepted: 4 January 2019 / Published: 5 January 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Expanding Cities, Diminishing Space)
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Abstract

The peri-urban area (PUA) of the Greater Cairo Region (GCR) in Egypt has witnessed a rapid urban expansion during the last few years. This urban expansion has led to the loss of wide, areas of agriculture lands and the annexation of many peripheral villages into the boundary of the GCR. This study analyzed the driving factors causing the urban expansion in the GCR during the period 2007–2017 using the logistic regression model (LRM). Eight independent variables were applied in this model: distance to the nearest urban center, distance to the nearest center of regional services, distance to water streams, distance to the main agglomeration, distance to industrial areas, distance to nearest road, number of urban cells within a 3 × 3 cell window and population density. The analysis was conducted using LOGISTICREG module in Terrset software. This research showed that the population density and distance to the nearest road have the highest regression coefficients, 0.540 and 0.114, respectively, and were the most significant driving factors of urban expansion during the last 10 years (2007–2017). Moreover, based on the results of the LRM, a probability map of urban expansion in the PUA was created, which shows that most urban expansion would be around the existing urban areas and near roads. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) value of 0.93 indicates that the probability map of urban expansion is valid. View Full-Text
Keywords: urban expansion; driving factor; peri-urban area; logistic regression model; Greater Cairo Region urban expansion; driving factor; peri-urban area; logistic regression model; Greater Cairo Region
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Salem, M.; Tsurusaki, N.; Divigalpitiya, P. Analyzing the Driving Factors Causing Urban Expansion in the Peri-Urban Areas Using Logistic Regression: A Case Study of the Greater Cairo Region. Infrastructures 2019, 4, 4.

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