6.1. Precision Analysis of GPR Model
Two commonly used statistical metrics were employed to assess the predictive accuracy of the GPR models developed in this study: the coefficient of determination (R
2) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). These metrics were computed by comparing the predicted values from the GPR models and the observed outputs from the CFD simulations on the training dataset. The coefficient of determination indicates how well the surrogate model captures the variability in the original dataset; a value of R
2 close to 1 implies high predictive accuracy. RMSE quantifies the average magnitude of prediction error. A lower RMSE shows a closer fit between the surrogate model and the CFD data.
where
is the actual CFD output,
denotes the GPR predicted output for the i-th sample, and
indicates the mean of all observed outputs.
Two GPR models were constructed in this study: one for
Tmax and one for Δ
Tmax. Both models were trained using the ARD Squared Exponential kernel, a popular choice for capturing nonlinear relationships with automatic relevance determination. Standardization of input features was also applied to enhance training convergence. The performance of the GPR models is summarized in
Table 7.
The GPR model for
Tmax exhibited superior performance compared to the model for Δ
Tmax, as indicated by the higher R
2 and lower RMSE (
Table 7). The Δ
Tmax model shows slightly lower accuracy but remains acceptable for surrogate-based optimization. Despite slightly lower accuracy in predicting Δ
Tmax, the surrogate model still provides reliable estimations with acceptable error margins, making it suitable for optimizing the process. In addition,
Figure 8 shows how well the GPR model predicted the actual value.
As shown in
Figure 8a, the predicted
Tmax values agree well with the observed data, with an R
2 of 0.9990 and an RMSE of 0.0328 K. The most frequently predicted points are tightly clustered around the 45-degree reference line (shown in red), indicating that the GPR model accurately captures the nonlinear relationship between the design variables and the maximum battery pack temperature across the entire range. No significant systematic overestimation or underestimation is observed, even at higher temperatures, confirming the model’s robustness.
As shown in
Figure 8b, the Δ
Tmax prediction exhibits slightly lower accuracy than
Tmax, with an R
2 of 0.9412 and an RMSE of 0.0774 K. Although the scatter of the predicted values around the diagonal line is more pronounced than in the
Tmax case, the overall trend is still well preserved. This indicates that the GPR model remains effective in predicting thermal non-uniformity among battery cells.
6.2. Sensitivity Analysis of Design Variables
We conducted a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative influence of the geometric design variables-channel thickness (
tc), wall thickness (
tw), and contact surface angle (
θ)-on the thermal performance of the battery module, specifically the
Tmax and the Δ
Tmax. The sensitivity indices summarized in
Table 8 are normalized measures of parameter influence derived from the trained GPR surrogate models. These indices were computed using a Morris-type one-at-a-time (OAT) global sensitivity analysis, in which the mean absolute elementary effects were normalized to yield relative influence percentages.
As shown in
Table 8, the most dominant factor is
tw, with sensitivities of 65.41% for T
max and 64.77% for Δ
Tmax. These results underline the critical influence of
tw on reducing both
Tmax and Δ
Tmax. Physically, the wall thickness directly controls the thermal resistance between the coolant and the battery cells. A thinner wall reduces this resistance, thereby enhancing conductive heat transfer and facilitating more efficient heat dissipation.
Channel thickness (tc) is the second most influential parameter, with sensitivities of 35.95% for Tmax and 31.05% for ΔTmax. This can be attributed to its effect on the coolant flow area, where an increase in tc allows higher coolant flow and improves convective heat transfer performance. Therefore, optimizing tc will also improve cooling performance, especially by reducing Tmax. In contrast, the contact surface angle (θ) shows a relatively small contribution, with sensitivities of 2.64% for Tmax and 4.17% for ΔTmax. Physically, θ primarily modifies the local contact configuration rather than the dominant heat transfer pathways, which explains its limited influence on overall thermal performance. Although its influence on thermal performance is noticeably lower than that of tc and tw, the slightly higher contribution to ΔTmax suggests that θ may have a secondary effect on temperature uniformity. However, the overall results show the importance of focusing on tw and tc when optimizing serpentine cooling channel for thermal control. The influence of θ may be more relevant to other performance metrics, such as pressure drop or flow distribution, rather than temperature control alone.
Figure 9 presents the GPR-predicted response curves for each design variable. The solid lines represent the mean prediction, while the shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals. The top-left plot indicates that the contact surface angle (
θ) has a limited influence on
Tmax, with only slight variations observed across the investigated range. In contrast, a more pronounced decreasing trend is observed for Δ
Tmax as
θ increases, suggesting that
θ has a secondary, but non-negligible, effect on temperature uniformity rather than on peak temperature. Nevertheless, the overall sensitivity of
θ remains significantly lower than that of the other two design variables, which is consistent with its contribution remaining below 5% in the variance-based sensitivity analysis.
The central plots reveal a nonlinear, weakly non-monotonic relationship between tc and Tmax. As tc increases from 2.0 to approximately 2.2 mm, a slight increase in Tmax is observed; however, the magnitude of this variation is marginal (within 0.2 K). Beyond this range, Tmax decreases markedly with increasing tc and gradually approaches a plateau at larger channel thicknesses. This behavior indicates a saturation effect, in which further increases in tc yield diminishing thermal benefits, resulting in an almost constant peak temperature.
In contrast, ΔTmax exhibits a more pronounced, nearly monotonic decrease with increasing tc across the investigated range. This indicates that larger channel thickness promotes more uniform temperature distribution within the battery module, likely due to improved coolant flow capacity and reduced local thermal gradients. Unlike Tmax, no evident deterioration in ΔTmax is observed at higher tc values within the considered design space.
The right-column plots show that wall thickness (tw) strongly influences thermal performance, particularly ΔTmax. An increase in tw leads to a pronounced rise in temperature non-uniformity, while Tmax also exhibits an increasing trend, though with a milder gradient. This confirms that thicker walls introduce additional thermal resistance, hindering effective heat dissipation and exacerbating temperature gradients within the battery module.
From both numerical and graphical analyses, it is evident that tw and tc dominate the thermal response of the cooling channel, with tw having the most critical impact. Optimizing these two parameters is essential to minimise peak temperatures and achieve thermal uniformity. In contrast, θ plays a secondary role and may be deprioritised in early-stage optimization, thereby allowing greater flexibility in layout design.
Figure 10 and
Figure 11 illustrate the combined effects of the three design variables—
tc,
tw, and
θ—on
Tmax and Δ
Tmax using 2D contour plots and 3D response surface visualisations. These plots provide insight into both individual parameter influence and interaction effects on the thermal behavior of the battery cooling system.
From the Tmax contour and surface plots (top rows), tw emerges as the most influential parameter. Tmax consistently increases with increasing tw across the investigated range, indicating that thicker channel walls introduce greater thermal resistance and hinder heat dissipation. Channel thickness (tc) exhibits a secondary but noticeable influence, with Tmax showing a nonlinear response and an optimal intermediate range where the maximum temperature is minimised. In contrast, variations in the contact surface angle (θ) lead to relatively mild changes in Tmax, suggesting that θ primarily affects temperature distribution rather than the peak temperature level.
The interaction plots further reveal that the combined effects of tc and tw are critical in determining Tmax. A balanced combination of moderate channel thickness and thin channel walls forms a clear optimal region with reduced Tmax, while extreme values of either parameter result in elevated temperatures.
The bottom rows of
Figure 10 and
Figure 11 show the response of Δ
Tmax to the design variables. Compared to
Tmax, Δ
Tmax is more sensitive to variations in both
tw and
θ. An increase in wall thickness leads to a pronounced rise in temperature non-uniformity, confirming its dominant role in governing thermal gradients within the battery module. Increasing
θ generally reduces Δ
Tmax, indicating that a larger contact surface angle promotes more uniform cooling across the cells. The influence of
tc on Δ
Tmax is comparatively moderate and exhibits a nonlinear trend, with excessive or insufficient channel thickness leading to higher temperature differences.
Overall, the contour and surface plots demonstrate that tw and tc are the primary parameters controlling the thermal performance of the serpentine cooling channel, with tw being the most critical. The contact surface angle (θ) plays a secondary role, mainly affecting temperature uniformity rather than absolute temperature levels. These findings highlight the necessity of multi-variable optimization, with priority given to tc and tw to minimise Tmax and ΔTmax, while θ may be adjusted with greater flexibility during layout and structural design.
6.3. Multi-Objective Optimization Result
The Pareto front resulting from the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization is shown in
Figure 12. Each blue point represents a non-dominated solution obtained during the optimization process, balancing the trade-off between the two conflicting objectives: minimising
Tmax and Δ
Tmax. The trade-off curve shows a downward-sloping trend: reducing
Tmax typically increases Δ
Tmax, and vice versa. This inverse relationship confirms the multi-objective nature of the thermal design problem. The red line represents a smooth curve fitted through the Pareto-optimal points, serving as a visual guide to the frontier.
Compared with representative recent surrogate-assisted optimization studies on battery thermal management, the present work adopts a more geometry-focused setting under fixed operating conditions. This allows the intrinsic effects of the geometric variables on Tmax and ΔTmax to be interpreted more clearly. From this perspective, the study contributes not only by identifying an improved design but also by providing clearer physical insight into the Pareto trade-off observed in liquid-cooled battery systems.
The observed trade-off can be explained by the underlying heat transfer mechanisms governed by the geometric design parameters. As demonstrated in the sensitivity analysis (
Table 8), wall thickness (
tw) is the most influential parameter, accounting for approximately 65% of both Tmax and Δ
Tmax. Physically,
tw controls the thermal resistance between the battery cells and the coolant. A reduction in
tw decreases this resistance, thereby enhancing conductive heat transfer and lowering
Tmax. However, this intensified heat removal tends to be spatially nonuniform along the serpentine flow path, with upstream regions experiencing stronger cooling than downstream regions. As a result, temperature gradients increase, leading to higher Δ
Tmax.
The channel thickness (
tw), identified as the second-most-influential parameter, primarily affects coolant flow capacity and convective heat transfer. Increasing t
c increases coolant flow rate and improves overall heat dissipation, thereby reducing
Tmax. At the same time, it promotes more uniform cooling distribution, which helps reduce ΔTmax. However, this effect is nonlinear and exhibits diminishing returns at higher tc values, as observed in the response surface analysis (
Figure 10 and
Figure 11).
In contrast, the contact surface angle (θ) has a relatively minor influence on Tmax but a more noticeable effect on temperature uniformity. Increasing θ enlarges the contact area between the cooling channel and the battery cells, facilitating a more even distribution of heat transfer and thereby reducing ΔTmax, while having only a limited impact on Tmax.
Overall, these results indicate that Tmax is primarily governed by the intensity of heat removal, dominated by tw and tc. In contrast, ΔTmax is controlled by the spatial uniformity of heat transfer, influenced by flow distribution and geometric configuration. The inherent competition between these two mechanisms explains the formation of the Pareto front.
Among the obtained Pareto-optimal solutions, the selected design (green point in
Figure 12) corresponds to the minimum Euclidean distance from the ideal point, representing a balanced compromise between the two objectives. This criterion was adopted to ensure simultaneous, unbiased consideration of
Tmax and Δ
Tmax without introducing subjective weighting factors. This solution achieves a low peak temperature while maintaining acceptable temperature uniformity, which is critical for preventing thermal degradation and ensuring consistent performance and battery cell aging. The relatively narrow spread of the Pareto front further indicates that the optimization converges to a high-performance design region. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the surrogate-assisted optimization framework based on Gaussian Process Regression in efficiently exploring the design space and identifying optimal solutions.
To assess the performance of the proposed optimization framework, the initial cooling channel configuration and the optimal design obtained from the NSGA-II algorithm were compared, as summarized in
Table 9. The initial model used a conservative geometry with
θ = 51°,
tc = 3 mm, and
tw = 0.7 mm, resulting in a
Tmax of 307.639 K and an Δ
Tmax of 8.752 K. The optimal configuration was found at
θ = 60 °,
tc = 2.95 mm, and
tw = 0.949 mm. According to the GPR surrogate model predictions, this new design reduced
Tmax to 306.575 K (a 1.064 K reduction) and Δ
Tmax to 7.832 K (a 0.92 K reduction). The optimal geometry was re-evaluated using a full CFD simulation to validate the surrogate model. As shown in
Figure 13b, the CFD results yielded
Tmax = 306.653 K and Δ
Tmax = 7.887 K. These results are very close to the surrogate model predictions, with relative errors of less than 1%, confirming the high accuracy and robustness of the GPR-based approach.
To quantify the effectiveness of the proposed optimization framework, the results of the optimal design (obtained via NSGA-II and validated by CFD) are compared with the baseline configuration, as summarized in
Table 9. The optimized serpentine cooling channel improved both thermal performance indicators compared with the initial design. Specifically,
Tmax decreased from 307.639 K to 306.653 K, corresponding to a temperature drop of 0.986 K. More importantly, Δ
Tmax was reduced from 8.752 K to 7.887 K, representing a 9.88% reduction. This result indicates a clear enhancement in temperature uniformity across the battery module. From a thermal management perspective, the reduction in ΔT
max is particularly meaningful because improved temperature uniformity helps alleviate local hot-spot formation and contributes to more stable and reliable battery operation. Although the reduction in Tmax is moderate in absolute magnitude, it still reflects a beneficial improvement in thermal control under the fixed operating conditions considered in this study. In addition, the close agreement between the GPR-predicted and CFD-validated results, with relative errors below 1%, further confirms the accuracy and reliability of the proposed surrogate-assisted optimization framework.
Although pressure drop was not included as an optimization objective in this paper, the optimized configuration results in a pressure drop (Δ
P) of 1456.817 Pa. At the considered inlet velocity of 0.3 m/s, this corresponds to a pumping power (P
p) of approximately 0.0111 W for the studied 40-cell battery module, which can be neglected compared with the system’s total thermal load. It should be noted that P
p can be calculated as follows:
where
b = 0.0636 m,
tc = 0.00295 m,
tw = 0.000949 m,
v = 0.3 m/s, and Δ
P = 1456.817 Pa.
Figure 13 shows the temperature contours of the initial lithium-ion battery pack and the optimized battery pack. It can be seen that the maximum temperature of the optimized battery pack was reduced to 306.653 K, and more importantly, the temperature distribution became more uniform. Specifically, the isotherms within each battery cell are more symmetrical and flatter (less steep), and the color transition across the entire battery pack is smoother. These visual observations provide concrete evidence of improvements in both
Tmax and Δ
Tmax, as predicted by the GPR model and verified by CFD simulations. Overall, these results demonstrate the effectiveness of the GPR-NSGA-II framework in improving both key thermal metrics. The optimal geometry, characterized by an increased channel angle and wall thickness together with a slightly reduced channel thickness, is associated with improved coolant flow distribution and more uniform heat removal across the battery pack.
Although the absolute reduction in Tmax is relatively small (≈1 K), this improvement remains meaningful in battery thermal management, where operating temperatures are tightly constrained, and even small reductions can enhance thermal stability and reduce degradation risk. More importantly, the reduction in ΔTmax (≈9.88%) represents a meaningful improvement in temperature uniformity, critical for mitigating uneven aging and ensuring consistent performance across battery cells.
From a practical standpoint, the required geometric modifications are relatively minor, indicating that the improved thermal performance can be achieved without significant design complexity or additional energy consumption. Therefore, the optimization results are practically relevant for battery thermal management applications.
Compared with representative recent studies on battery thermal management, the present work differs mainly in its geometry-focused optimization setting under fixed operating conditions. For example, Su et al. [
23] employed NSGA-II combined with a GP-based surrogate model and considered both thermal and hydraulic performance. Because the compared studies do not share identical optimization variables and constraints, the comparison should be interpreted primarily in terms of design focus and result interpretation rather than direct superiority. From this perspective, the present study contributes not only by achieving competitive thermal performance but also by providing clearer physics-based insight into the Pareto trade-off for geometry-driven battery thermal design.
However, the reported improvements in thermal metrics in that work were relatively modest, with only marginal reductions in maximum temperature and temperature variation. In contrast, the revised discussion clarifies that the present study differs mainly in its optimization scope and interpretive emphasis, rather than claiming universal superiority over previous approaches, particularly in temperature uniformity, with ΔTmax reduced by approximately 9.88%, together with a modest reduction in Tmax under the studied conditions.
The differences can be attributed to both the design focus and modeling approach. While Su et al. incorporated multiple operating parameters such as inlet temperature and coolant velocity, the present study concentrates on the geometric optimization of the serpentine cooling channel, which directly governs the dominant heat transfer pathways, including conductive resistance and convective heat removal. As demonstrated in the sensitivity analysis, wall thickness (tw) and channel thickness (tc) play a critical role in controlling thermal resistance and coolant flow capacity, thereby strongly influencing both Tmax and ΔTmax.
Furthermore, although Pareto-based optimization is adopted in both studies, the present work provides a more detailed interpretation of the trade-off mechanism between peak temperature and temperature uniformity by linking the Pareto front behavior with the underlying heat transfer processes. This enables a clearer physical understanding of why improvements in Tmax may be accompanied by changes in ΔTmax, which is essential for practical thermal design.
Overall, the comparison indicates that the contribution of the present work lies not only in achieving competitive thermal performance but also in providing a clearer physics-based interpretation of the Pareto trade-off for geometry-driven battery thermal design.